Prop 8 not looking good: some quick calculations [updated]

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Wednesday November 05, 2008 · 12:04 AM PST

2008/11/05 · 00:04

Bad news: If the remaining precincts within each California county vote the same way that early-reporting precincts did, Proposition 8 will pass by about ~~3 million~~ 1.3 million votes.

In fact, the spread would actually get wider. Currently, SF Gate is reporting 52% have voted "yes" and 48% have voted "no." My math suggests that Prop. 8 could pass 55% (yes) to 45% (no).

This is a very basic analysis, so there are lots of reasons to still have hope that Proposition 8 might not pass. Please add more in the comments.

salvia

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Saturday February 11, 2006 · 1:42 AM PST

2006/02/11 · 01:42

In the story of climate change, or of polar bears, or of government inaction, this is just a footnote. But I love seeing the evasion up close and personal. And it gives some insight into the government's thinking on the polar bear/climate change issue.

At yesterday's Energy Media Breakfast (minutes 44:29-47:00), Gale Norton (Secretary of the Department of the Interior, making her in charge of the US Fish & Wildlife Service), was quizzed by Chris Holly with the Energy Daily, about the recent polar bear decision and whether it could compel government action to prevent climate change.

The short answer: No.
The long answer: Ha ha ha! Are you kidding? We employ scientists! No.

Transcript below the fold. Read More

Hitting Close To Home

salvia

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Friday February 10, 2006 · 2:02 AM PST

2006/02/10 · 02:02

The latest environmental news is striking pretty close to home. Apparently, the latest location where pollution has been discovered is... my body. And yours.

Many women are so polluted it could affect their babies. From Grist:

You weren't thinking of having children, were you? Good: One in five American women of childbearing age may have unsafe levels of mercury in their bodies, according to a new report by the Environmental Quality Institute at University of North Carolina-Asheville.

Half of breast cancer cases may be environmental. From the Oakland Tribune:

As many as half of all new breast cancers may be foisted upon woman by pollutants in the environment, triggered by such items as bisphenol-A lining tin cans or radiation from early mammograms, according to a review of recent science by two breast cancer groups.

The Breast Cancer Fund reports that half of all men and one out of three women will develop some kind of cancer in their lifetime. What do you think of this? Starting to get serious, huh? Read More

Fighting climate change - legal victory!

salvia

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Wednesday February 08, 2006 · 7:54 PM PST

2006/02/08 · 19:54

Hey, great news on climate change! So nice to be able to pass on some environmental good news:

Amid concerns that global warming is melting away the icy habitats where polar bears live, the federal government is reviewing whether they should be considered a threatened species.

What is so cool about this? This is the beginning of an amazing effort to open up new avenues for fighting climate change using the Endangered Species Act.

To the extent that global warming threatens the polar bears, and to the extent that government activities (or activities they regulate) cause global warming, the government would have to stop activities that cause global warming. (After a decade of legal battles, but still!) Read More

Oceans 11, 10, 9, 8, 7....

salvia

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Monday February 06, 2006 · 8:37 PM PST

2006/02/06 · 20:37

I'm not a doomsday environmentalist, or I wasn't. You might not exactly know it from my Kos posts thus far, but for basically a decade, I dismissed "the sky is falling" environmentalism. That's getting harder all the time.

One thing I do as a job is to write a news update for a small environmental nonprofit. I flip through eco-news headlines, compile them, add our spin, and send it off. The tone of this nonprofit is "the future is now," not "the end is nigh!!"

So I don't go looking for these things. But you want to know what this week's news roundup is?? Here it is...

Failure to Act in Next Five To Seven Years Leads to Irreversible Downward Spiral for Ocean Health
(John Heilprin, Associated Press, 2/3/2006)

[more ocean doom on flip...] Read More

Global Warming Discussions On The Airplane

salvia

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Friday December 30, 2005 · 2:49 PM PST

2005/12/30 · 14:49

Had a discussion on the airplane with someone (a former Alaska fisheries field researcher, for God's sake) and heard a repeat of the same environmental myths I hear over and over.

So, for all of us who believe in changing attitudes one person at a time, here are some quick responses to those myths, and some helpful, if stunning, facts...

First, let's applaud a NYT op-ed for giving prominent year-end coverage to two global warming stories and quickly memorize a few factoids from them.
Read More

... now a bit MORE endangered

salvia

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Friday December 16, 2005 · 1:23 AM PST

2005/12/16 · 01:23

Today, Senator Mike Crapo introduced Senate bill, S. 2110 -- the "Collaboration and Recovery of Endangered Species Act."

The bill is bad in itself. But worse, if it passes, it goes to a House-Senate reconciliation committee where all the worst provisions of the House version (Pombo's HR 3824) could be added back in.

The endangered species crisis is huge. Federal agencies are not following the basic law, as written. And now, there's a concerted attempt to rewrite the law.

This stuns me. What is so sacred about ... anything we're doing that it justifies attacking this protection against the animals that are clinging to survival by, say, 78 individuals (like the southern resident killer whales that live in the Puget Sound near Seattle)? Read More

The Christmas spirit vs. the Iraq War [retitled]

salvia

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Sunday November 27, 2005 · 6:45 PM PST

2005/11/27 · 18:45

December 4, 2005. Redding, CA-- Around the country, a new trend has more earnest Americans going to church than ever before. Only they do not go inside. Reversing a normal scene, they have brought their own candlelight vigil to churches, like this one in Redding.
One organizer explained. "The season of Christmas is about peace and goodwill to all. We are asking Christians to honor the anniversary of Jesus's birth by putting into practice His most radical teachings -- to love thy enemy."

Another was more blunt. "Bush claims the Iraq war is God's will. Christians in this country need to insist on an immediate end to the atrocities. God does not want war." Read More

Global warming: hollywood drama and government corruption

salvia

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Friday November 25, 2005 · 2:45 PM PST

2005/11/25 · 14:45

With a United Nations climate change meeting beginning on Nov. 28 in Montreal, Canada, you can expect to hear more about global warming in the next few days.

To get you warmed up (heh heh), there's more on the flip, including the latest news, some great Hollywood dialogue, and -- gasp! -- corruption within the Bush administration. Read More

What's the big picture? [w/ poll!]

salvia

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Friday November 18, 2005 · 4:23 PM PST

2005/11/18 · 16:23

I've become a bit obsessed with the apocalypse lately. My roommates are always creating environmental doomsday scenarios, so I decided to immerse myself in movies and whatnot. (I've just started.)

Mostly for amusement -- but even then, people don't like to hear about it. Almost everyone suggests I find another distraction.

My cousin for instance. He (more blunt than most) said, "Maybe you should take some time off to get a little perspective on things."

"A quarter of all mammals could go extinct in the next 30 years," I said, as matter-of-fact as I could. "Isn't that perspective?"

Isn't it?

Since then, though, I've been trying to get perspective. "Is this the big picture?" I'll ask myself. "Is that the big picture?"

So I thought I'd ask you all: what do YOU think is the big picture?

My nominations follow... Read More

Endangered Species and Democrats: Reframing Environmentalism

salvia

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Monday November 14, 2005 · 5:10 AM PST

2005/11/14 · 05:10

My question: How can concern for species extinction, and the wider natural world, fit into a new Democratic platform?

It's barely beginning to happen -- and it urgently needs to.

The good news:
Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) introduced a resolution designating March 8, 2006 as nationwide "Endangered Species Day" to raise awareness (voting this week, call your Senators).

The devastating rewrite of the Endangered Species Act (HR 3824, Pombo, R-CA) has thus far been kept in the Senate committee.

The bad news:

According to one report, the oceans may not recover from overfishing. (You can see which fish to choose so you don't contribute here.)

Apes and chimps may be extinct in the wild in one human generation. Read More

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