With a United Nations climate change meeting beginning on Nov. 28 in Montreal, Canada, you can expect to hear more about global warming in the next few days.
To get you warmed up (heh heh), there's more on the flip, including the latest news, some great Hollywood dialogue, and -- gasp! -- corruption within the Bush administration.
The
New York Times reports today that:
Rise in [Greenhouse] Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice
Scientists now have records of atmospheric gas composition going back 650,000 years -- that's two to three times further back than the emergence of homo sapiens as a species -- and gas levels have never been what they are now.
"They've now pushed back two-thirds of a million years and found that nature did not get as far as humans have," said Richard B. Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University who is an expert on ice cores. "We're changing the world really hugely - way past where it's been for a long time."
The gases involved are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous gas, and they have significant effects on climate:
"CO2 and climate are like two people handcuffed to each other," [James White, a geology professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, not involved with the study] said. "Where one goes, the other must follow. Leadership may change, or they may march in step, but they are never far from each other. Our current CO2 levels appear to be far out of balance with climate when viewed through these results, reinforcing the idea that we have significant modern warming to go."
This is really kind of huge, if you think about it.
We already know that "over the past century or so the global (land and sea) temperature has increased by 0.6 ± 0.2 °C
(Full size image found here.)
And that we've already committed to another 0.5-1°C in warming.
And that Europe has started to reduce emissions and prepare for rising sea levels.
And Merlot Democrat informs us of a WashPost report showing that already, global warming causes about 150,000 deaths a year, to climb to over half a million by 2030.
But could more dramatic scenarios occur? Alister Doyle of Reuters (11/23/05) asks:
Can "Tipping Points" Accelerate Global Warming?
Greenland thermafrost stores high amounts of methane and other greenhouse gases, which will be released as it thaws. Climate change could kill off Amazon forests, releasing the carbon currently stored in the trees. Each of these could cause global warming to accelerate as it goes along.
And some scientists think sudden changes could occur, with drastic consequences.
Such scenarios may read like the script of a Hollywood disaster movie but many scientists say there are real risks of "tipping points" -- sudden, catastrophic changes triggered by human activities blamed for warming the planet.
Skeptical Scientist: "Hang on. Are you saying these [storms, typhoons, low pressure systems] are interconnected??"
Respected old professor: "We have to consider the possibility."
Skeptical Scientist [disparagingly:] "But the only force strong enough to affect global weather is the sun."
Fair-minded Moderator: "...Wellll. What's NASA got to say?"
Serious Young Woman [diligently:] "We already checked sir. Solar output is normal."
Jack Hall [from the back of the room, with 3-day stubble:] "What about the North Atlantic current?"
-- All heads turn to look at Jack. --
Random man: "What about it?"
Jack Hall: "I got a call last night from Professor Rapson at the Headland Center. He thinks the current has changed."
-- frantic whispering between scientists --
Skeptical Scientist [scoffing:] "C'mon Jack. How can that be?"
Jack Hall: "The current depends upon a delicate balance of salt and fresh water"
Fair-minded Moderator [impatiently:] "Yes yes. We all know that."
Jack Hall: "Yes! But no one has taken into account how much fresh water has been dumped into the ocean because of melting polar ice."
[Pause. Continues dramatically:] "I think we've reached a critical desalinization point."
-- shocked muttering rolls across the room --
Serious Young Woman: "It would explain what's driving this extreme weather."
Jack Hall: "Headland had some pretty convincing Data. They asked me to feed it into my paleoclimate model to track the next set of events."
Moderator: "Hold on, Jack. Are you suggesting these weather anomalies are going to continue?"
Jack Hall: "Not just continue. Get WORSE."
-- loud muttering in the audience--
Jack Hall [dramatically:] I think we're on the verge of a major climate shift.
(From The Day After Tomorrow -- the start to my apocalyptic movie marathon.)
Back in the realm of nonfiction now: a Wikipedia article says that most models don't show that enough water could be added to the oceans to shut down the current. But it also said:
Recently the hypothesis that the Gulf Stream is switching off received a boost when a retrospective analysis of U.S.
satellite data seemed to show a slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, the northern swirl of the Gulf Stream.
NASA: Slowing of North Atlantic Gyre
In May 2005, Peter Wadhams reported to The Times about the results of investigations in a submarine under the Arctic ice sheet measuring the giant chimneys of cold dense water, in which the cold dense water normally sinks down to the sea bed and is replaced by warm water, forming one of the engines of the North Atlantic Drift. He and his team found the chimneys to have virtually disappeared. Normally there are seven to twelve giant columns, but Wadhams found only two giant columns, both extremely weak. (See here and here).
Still in nonfiction, Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and an expert in ocean currents, said:
"I don't think this is scaremongering. We don't really understand the system," he said of risks that the warm Gulf Stream current in the North Atlantic might shut down in one possible "tipping point" scenario.
So, given these risks, what can we expect at a United Nations climate change meeting in Montreal, Canada, from Nov. 28-Dec. 9?
Not much. And why? Bush administration corruption, sponsored by energy companies.
The U.S. delegation will be led by Paula Dobriansky, U.S. Under Secretary for Global Affairs. Dobriansky is a neoconservative, a member of the Project for a New American Century.
Her sister, Laurisa Dobriansky, is an environmental lawyer who according to Sourcewatch, "spearheaded the lobbying and government action against the ratification of the Kyoto Treaty." She was previously a lobbyist for Akin Gump, where she did work related to climate change for Exxon Mobil. She is currently Assistant Secretary for National Eergy Policy at the Department of Energy, where she manages the department's Office of Climate Change Policy.
As reported by Chris Mooney in Mother Jones, Greenpeace memos uncovered show that [Paula] Dobriansky met with ExxonMobil lobbyist Randy Randol and the Global Climate Coalition within months of her 2001 confirmation. ("A State Department official confirmed that these meetings took place, but adds that Dobriansky 'meets with pro-Kyoto groups as well.'")
She has long stressed that we can't act due to uncertainty. In the Buenos Aires talks, she said, "science tells us that we cannot say with any certainty what constitutes a dangerous level of warming, and therefore what level must be avoided." (I love this logic. We don't know exactly when the danger kicks in, so let's act like it doesn't exist.)
The good news? This month's Montreal talks are only a beginning -- expected to yield agreement around 2008-2010 -- hopefully under a new administration.