You see it all the times on twitter or TV: Obama is in trouble in a state if he’s not at 50% because the undecideds always break to the challenger.
First of all, that has been debunked.
Secondly, some of the undecideds in a poll won’t vote at all. Or are simply lying because they don’t want to tell a person on the other end of the phone who they are voting for. The TRUE number of undecideds is unlikely much less than what a poll says they are...
But more importantly, how has this worked in practice?
THe last close election was in 2004. For this, I’m pulling data from RCP found here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
I’ll first mention the RCP average...and then what the winning candidate received.
FL: Bush 48.2% ----> 52.1%
OH: Bush 48.8% ----> 50.8%
PA: Kerry 48.2% ----> 50.9%
WI: Bush 47.7% -----> KERRY 49.7%
IA: Bush 47.4% ------> 49.9%
MN: Kerry 48.5% ----> 51.1%
MI: Kerry 48.1% -----> 51.2%
In fact, based on this small sample size, it would seem that a candidate pulling at least 48% of the vote who has the lead, is very likely to win the state. If less than 48%, it’s probably too close to call.