Democratic Senate nominees Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff
It’s very unusual to see a non-November election that is for all the marbles, but that’s what’s on tap on Tuesday in the two Senate runoff elections in Georgia. If Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock both manage to defeat their Republican opponents, the Democratic Party will have a Senate majority (thanks to Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote), and along with Joe Biden and a Democratic-controlled House, a governing trifecta. If either or both lose, Mitch McConnell will retain control of the Senate and will be able to block not just Biden’s legislative agenda but his judicial nominations and even his cabinet appointments. No pressure, then, right?
The two Senate contests in November were very close, as was, of course, the presidential race in Georgia, which Biden narrowly won. Georgia has a unique law requiring a runoff in races where no candidate tops 50% (excluding presidential elections), and in neither Senate race, no one did, so here we are.
To help you follow along with Tuesday’s results, we’ve put together a fresh set of benchmarks in key counties that will show you whether the Democratic candidates are on track to hit 50%. This time, however, we’re featuring two alternate models—one based on the November presidential results, and the other based on the results from the first round of the Ossoff-Perdue race—that offer slightly different paths to victory.
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