Congressman Raul Grijavla passed away in March 2025. A special election for his district, AZ07, will be held in September 2025.
Arizona is at a turning point. Following the heartbreaking loss of Congressman Raúl Grijalva, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District (AZ07) is heading into a special election—and the stakes couldn’t be higher. On April 1st, Republicans retained two House seats in Florida, allowing them to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives. Now, they are shifting their attention and resources to AZ07.
In a typical election year, AZ07 is a safely blue district. However, it is historically a low-turnout district, and turnout is expected to be even lower due to this election taking place in an off-year. In 2024, voter participation in AZ07 was 17 points lower than the state average. If it declines further this September, the district could become vulnerable to flipping, especially as special interest groups pour money into the race once a viable Republican candidate emerges.
You might be thinking, "Republicans already have the House, so why does one district matter?"
Here’s why:
The Republican majority is razor-thin; they hold just seven more seats than Democrats. If we maintain our hold on AZ07 and the other open seat, TX-18, their margin shrinks to just five seats. This would have significant legislative consequences, as divisions within the GOP could force members to work with Democrats to advance key policies.
Simply put, every congressional seat matters in the fight against Donald Trump.
Moreover, this special election presents Arizona Democrats with a crucial opportunity to build momentum for 2026. Next year, Arizona will have several critical statewide elections. Governor Katie Hobbs, Attorney General Kris Mayes, and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes have all announced their reelection campaigns, meaning they have less than two years to turn Arizona back to blue.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes clinched her 2022 victory by just 280 votes.
Protecting our statewide Democratic officials is our best defense against the Trump agenda. These officials have multiple tools at their disposal to block harmful federal policies. One key strategy is legal action. For example, Attorney General Kris Mayes has already filed eleven major lawsuits against the Trump administration, challenging federal funding freezes, cuts to medical research, and reductions in education funding. Another strategy is direct resistance. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes has stated that Arizona will not comply with Trump’s unconstitutional attempts to strip states of their election management powers. When states like Arizona stand up to Trump’s overreach, they encourage others to follow suit.
So how does AZ07 factor in?
Arizona’s statewide Democratic officials won by razor-thin margins. The most extreme example is Kris Mayes, who secured her 2022 victory by just 280 votes.
That’s it. 280 votes.
We can significantly improve these margins by boosting turnout in the special election. As mentioned, AZ07 is a low-turnout district. In 2022, only 195,862 voters cast ballots, with 126,418 supporting the Democratic incumbent, Raúl Grijalva. The district has 178,183 registered Democrats, meaning more than 50,000 of them stayed home.
Now, let’s assume we increase Democratic turnout in AZ07 by just 2% in the upcoming special election. That would mean 3,563 additional voters casting ballots—voters who would then be exponentially more likely to vote again in November 2026.
Once again, Kris Mayes won her last race by just 280 votes. The question now is: how do we turn out over 3,500 more voters?
That’s where the Arizona Native Democrats come in.
In February, we began expanding our organizing efforts into the Tohono O’odham, San Carlos Apache, and Yavapai-Apache tribal nations. Given the upcoming special election, we are now broadening our reach even further to include the sovereign nations of Pascua Yaqui, Quechan, and Cocopah. This expansion allows us to engage directly with over 16,000 Indigenous residents in AZ07.
To jumpstart our special election efforts and sustain organizing efforts across these sovereign nations, we need to raise $100,000. Over the next six months, these funds will support:
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Hiring local organizers in AZ07’s four sovereign nations.
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Recruiting and training Family Votes Matriarchs to register and educate relatives.
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Recruiting and training Youth Votes Ambassadors to engage voters aged 18-35.
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Hosting voter registration and high-traffic canvassing events.
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Conducting listening tours in all four sovereign nations.
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Mobilizing volunteers to send educational postcards to rural voters.
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Running phone banks and text campaigns to educate and turn out Native voters.
We understand that $100,000 is a significant ask. However, we also know that our team is uniquely equipped to use these funds effectively. Last year, we identified 8,752 high-potential voters who had previously disengaged from elections. Through our Family & Youth Votes programs, targeted outreach, and organizing efforts, we successfully turned out nearly half of them, ensuring that over 4,000 new voters participated in last year’s election.
A lot is at stake, but our team is ready for the challenge. Please help us win in AZ07 by making a donation or signing up to volunteer at arizonanativedemocrats.org.
