Energy Outline - Chu Lays Groundwork

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Friday April 10, 2009 · 7:52 AM PDT

2009/04/10 · 07:52

Secretary of Energy Chu gave an interview at the EIA convention which was broadcast on CSPAN yesterday. He gave a general outline of where the administration plans to go and how they describe their energy policy. The turning the Titanic (or the Aircraft Carrier) metaphor seems to be the Administration analogy of choice. There does seem to be a clear policy emerging.

Takeaways

It sure is nice to have scientifically literate people who give answers with real grounding. Even if I do not agree on all points. What a change from the "we need oil" days.
Conservation and efficiency are number one priorities
Increased Renewable is basically a given, grid improvements to help are the real priority.
Cap and Trade lessons have been learned from Europe
New Nuclear is very much on the table

MarkRK

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Thursday April 09, 2009 · 12:15 PM PDT

2009/04/09 · 12:15

This is part on an ongoing series of diaries (1) where I explore energy policy, currently Wind Power, the fastest growing electric power source in the world. After a break to do Maple Sugaring (an average year) I'm looking at this again. How much does it cost to keep Wind Turbines going? How long will they last? These are questions that keep getting raised over and over again.

Capital Costs have been based on a 20 year lifetime. Is that realistic? Let's look at the lifetime of turbines based on 25 years of data from Denmark. This shows we haven't hit any real lifespan for decent size (1 MW or greater) wind turbines. The jury is still out, but with 650 Wind Turbines of 1 MW or greater with an average age of 7 years there have been 10 decommissionings, 4 of those were replacements with larger turbines and several more look like tests. I could only find 2 unknowns. This isn't enough to usefully extrapolate a lifetime model, but it does put a cap on things. Even dropping to 500+ kW size gives only 17 decommissions (including the 10) out of over 3500 turbines (0.005 of them) with an overall average age of 13 years. Unless there is a cliff at 17 years or something it looks like 20 years is a low end estimate.

MarkRK

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Tuesday March 03, 2009 · 9:35 AM PST

2009/03/03 · 09:35

I just spent some time acquiring and reading (well actually scanning a lot of the provisions) of HR-1 "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009". It is quite the experience for someone not in politics. I am giving my short review of the actual bill, with some questions. Just like a literary review. This is how I got the bill and what it looked like! You too can get this literary masterwork!

Takeaways:

whitehouse.gov is an improvement already, but it can still use some cleanup.
This is a $300 Billion Appropriation Bill and a Tax Cut Bill. Some of the "Tax Cuts" really aren't - they are actually extensions of current tax policy so the numbers reported seem high to me.
The Health Information Law is just kind of thrown in. Along with the Executive Pay provisions.
Where are the provisions to connect people looking for work with jobs?
The bill has some targeting but no clear goals in mind. Even with the clarity provisions. That will have to change.

MarkRK

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Tuesday February 17, 2009 · 1:07 PM PST

2009/02/17 · 13:07

How I stopped worrying and learned to love the financing of Wind Power.
This is a diary in a series about energy policy, the second relating to Wind Power. Here we walk foreign roads through the darkness of how Wind Power is currently financed. No Bucks no Turbines. How financial manipulations can actually accomplish something.

MarkRK

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Wednesday February 04, 2009 · 2:16 PM PST

2009/02/04 · 14:16

Wind Power is the fastest growing producer of electricity in the US. Over 40% of new electric production in 2008 was Wind; it produces about 1.5% of total U.S. Electric power at this time (1). We want to double this in 3 years and get 20% of electricity Wind produced by 2020. These are goals from the President and the Department of Energy (2).

I am trying to get a coherent top down idea of energy policy, and these diaries are my summaries. Talking about power generation we might as well start with the star. An energy source hasn't grown this fast since the days of oil in the automobile's introduction, I think. This is the least speculative alternative power source, as opposed to Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear, and Hydro.

Takeaways

Wind Power is very transparent, We can see most of the costs and output without murky models.
Current Tax and Rate Policy with forced production levels of "Green" energy is working. The PDC is a tax cut which is actually doing what it purports to do.
Even slight new incentives will keep the growth high enough to make a difference.

MarkRK

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Tuesday January 27, 2009 · 1:38 PM PST

2009/01/27 · 13:38

So I was at the Wisconsin State Bowling Tournament in Green Bay over the weekend, and I'm sitting at the casino next to some folks who work for an energy company. We weren't exactly “throwing it down 200 at a time” so we had the opportunity to talk. They made an argument I've seen more and more lately. Basically it is the old technology curve issue. It goes something like this:

Yes I understand Greenhouse warming, but wouldn't it be better to do simple things now, and spend money on R&D and then really plan for a “big bang” later when technology is better? As our technology gets better we'll be able to deal with these things easier, and doing it now would be a waste. Another variant is the China and India will dwarf our emissions shortly so we'll need to do remediation anyway - or so the story goes.

This diary is my response cleaned up somewhat. The point being, strike while the iron is hot! We should deal with greenhouse gasses starting now, not later.

This is part 3 of my series on Energy Policy. I put off looking at efficiency, because I wanted to write this down to get it clear in my head for the next time it comes up.

MarkRK

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Thursday January 22, 2009 · 5:57 PM PST

2009/01/22 · 17:57

This is part two of the series where I try to get some perspective on the huge task of significantly altering energy use in the U.S. - and try to get some guidelines for policy and measures on success. Also I get to play with numbers in the quadrillions, and talk about Megatons of things. Where else can you have such fun?
Part One is here.

This dives into the numbers available at the EIA, Specifically the Annual Energy Forecast.

Takeaways

Doing anything to really move energy use needs a big, wartime like, commitment.
Efficiency and Conservation measures are key.
If you believe the science then Greenhouse Gas emissions are going to drive policy.
One big thing won't make these goals. It will take several big things and a thousand little ones, and the government will have to act as an incubator.

Nothing new and exciting but worked through from seeing some actual numbers.

MarkRK

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Wednesday January 21, 2009 · 2:35 PM PST

2009/01/21 · 14:35

What Does Energy Policy Mean in the United States? Where do we get the facts?

This diary and those to follow are my personal attempt to step back and look at what we know about the energy situation in the U.S. and how well we know it. This is an area where effective government based on real facts about the the natural world, will make a difference. Not only direct government action, but healthy private markets will be needed, yet as there are many natural limits of competition, good policy by government is needed to to have good markets. Even if we are extremely lucky and get 25% good government, if it is based on real understanding, the U.S. may muddle through. I want to understand these issues and have some way to measure whether government policies are good, so I am using these diaries as a record of a swim through the murky waters of power. Thanks to Darksyde's diaries to make me think that I might as well do this in the open here.

RSS

Energy Outline - Chu Lays Groundwork

Wind By the Numbers - Do Turbines Last?

A Book Report on HR-1 The Stimulus

Wind by the Numbers - Money

Wind Power by the Numbers 2009 and Beyond

Let's Have Action Now, not Later, on Greenhouse Gas buildup.

Energy Policy – A Personal Look at the Numbers – 2 The Big Numbers

Energy Policy, A personal look at the numbers – Part 1