Ground report in Ann Arbor (bad news. Sorry.)

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Tuesday November 02, 2010 · 12:57 PM PDT

2010/11/02 · 12:57

I'm just taking a break now from flyering and handing out literature all over campus at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Unfortunately, there's quite little excitement in the crowd; turnout all over campus is low. For instance, turnout at one dorm was 150 (out of 3000 registered) an hour ago. For comparison, 1000 people voted there in 2008 (and 500 in 2006.) There are "I Voted" stickers throughout the crowd, but not in large quantities, and a surprisingly large minority who professed their vote for Republicans. Turnout will probably pick up around now as classes end, but I don't think it would go over 2006 levels (and even reaching that would be quite iffy.)

Michiganliberal

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Tuesday June 01, 2010 · 1:50 PM PDT

2010/06/01 · 13:50

Unfortunately, this diary isn't snark, no matter how much the title may read like it comes out of the Onion.

The title quote comes from a Jerusalem Post article that seems to have been mostly ignored

Israel will use more aggressive force in the future to prevent ships from breaking the sea blockade on the Gaza Strip, a top Navy commander told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

"We boarded the ship and were attacked as if it was a war," the officer said. "That will mean that we will have to come prepared in the future as if it was a war."

Michiganliberal

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Saturday December 06, 2008 · 8:06 PM PST

2008/12/06 · 20:06

(From comments crossposted at Swing State Project)

I decided to analyze the individual precincts, and compare their performance to that against the Jefferson-Carter race in 2006 (Jefferson won that by about 12 points.) This would seem to give us a far more accurate result than county-to-county comparison, as partial results will skew the data - certain precincts, for example, are giving 100% of their vote to Jefferson.

Michiganliberal

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Saturday October 11, 2008 · 7:18 PM PDT

2008/10/11 · 19:18

This diary was first posted as a series of comments, but I decided to expand them and write a diary so that people could actually see it.

As you probably know by now, brownsox has posted the latest Dailykos/R2000 poll numbers, this time from WV-02. Taken as they are, the numbers have Capito up by 13 points, and Obama trailing by 7. Not a set of very appealing numbers, considering that Ann Barth was supposed to be a strong recruit, and also considering the ARG poll that had Obama+8 in the state overall.

Michiganliberal

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Friday August 29, 2008 · 12:39 PM PDT

2008/08/29 · 12:39

This diary aims to sum up everything we've learned about Sarah Palin, presumptive Republican VP candidate, just within the first 24 hours of her announcement.

Who is Sarah Palin?

If there's anyone in this presidential race who's a 'celebrity', its definitely her (unless you count Paris Hilton!), having posed on the cover of the fashion magazine Vogue

She's young (3 years younger than Obama!) and inexperienced (the mayor of a town of 8,000 until two years ago). That effectively neutralizes the $10-20 million that McCain has spent attacking Obama on said subjects. She also supported Romney in the primary, and praised Obama's energy plan.

Michiganliberal

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Monday August 11, 2008 · 7:09 PM PDT

2008/08/11 · 19:09

In my previous diary on this topic, I examined the background to the South Ossetian war. Today, I try to examine the current situation in the war.

Yesterday, most of us probably heard the news that Russia had taken the city of Gori, only 40 miles or so from Tbilisi.

Michiganliberal

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Friday August 08, 2008 · 8:15 AM PDT

2008/08/08 · 08:15

(I am aware that Setrak has already written a diary on this, but I've decided to try and flesh it out, since most people don't seem to understand the situation. My information comes mostly from Wikipedia and following the references there.)

As most of you probably know, Russia has ordered troops into the disputed region of South Ossetia after Georgia escalated the conflict by an offensive against the Ossetians. Georgia has withdrawn its 2000 soldiers from our Iraqi coalition, and although an actual declaration of war does not seem to have occurred, its clear that a war is indeed occurring.

My own take on the situation is that Georgia is somewhat at fault here for escalating the conflict, but Russia also seems to have had its moves planned out, and if its indeed escalating the conflict and moving against Georgia proper (rather than restricting its intervention to Ossetia) as Georgia claims, then its also at fault.

Michiganliberal

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Thursday June 12, 2008 · 6:02 PM PDT

2008/06/12 · 18:02

Credit for this goes completely to Pat Flatley of MyDD. He doesn't have an account here, and said that he would love for anyone to cross-post it on his behalf.

As we all know, McCain's electoral prospects in the November election depends on the support of independent voters; in a recent Rasmussen poll, only 42% of them believe that McCain's presidency will be a third Bush term. McCain himself has tried to wrap himself around Obama's message of change.

Below is the 54-second video from Meet the Press (June, 2005) that will solidify the view of McCain as nothing more than Bush v2.

Michiganliberal

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Tuesday May 06, 2008 · 9:46 PM PDT

2008/05/06 · 21:46

It currently appears that Lake County could possibly swing Indiana over to Obama. Many people here have suspected fraud, and I unfortunately was one of them (for 10-20 minutes only!) But I've done some math, and it looks like the exit polls have predicted Obama to get around 64% of the vote in Lake, which corresponds to the numbers coming out of there right now. Calculations below:

Michiganliberal

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Tuesday May 06, 2008 · 5:27 PM PDT

2008/05/06 · 17:27

According to a diary on the top of the Rec list right now, you should deduct 15% from Clinton's vote in IN because it is from Republicans who would not vote for her in the GE. However, the diary misread some of the exit polls, and acknowledged it. I posted the correct numbers in the diary, but nobody seems to have noticed it, so I'll redo them here.

Michiganliberal

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Friday April 25, 2008 · 2:14 PM PDT

2008/04/25 · 14:14

(Cross-posted at MyDD)

I participated in the Day of Silence today at school, and wrote the following statement to explain my participation to others:

As you may know, today, April 25 2008, is the Day of Silence, a national movement calling attention to the silence faced by lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people who must endure bullying and other harassment. But my silence in specific is also to call attention to all the silent victims on this planet: the millions of victim in Darfur, Iraq, and other areas of crisis, the hundreds of millions who face malnutrition worldwide, the billions who live in poverty; all the forgotten people of the world in general, as well as all those who will suffer in the future from the problems we have forced ourselves to forget. For 365 days a year, we are silent on these problems. I can only regret that my own silence will be for but one day.

Michiganliberal

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Monday February 25, 2008 · 7:00 PM PST

2008/02/25 · 19:00

Yesterday, I wrote a diary examining how accurately polls predicted turnout. In many states such as Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, pre-election polling severely underestimated African-American turnout; the Hispanic vote was also underestimated to a lesser degree in many states. I was originally planning to repeat that analysis for age demographics, but that proved difficult because pollsters weren't consistent in how they broke down the different age groups. So instead, I attempted to predict racial turnout on my own by examining exit poll data from 2004.

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Ground report in Ann Arbor (bad news. Sorry.)

Israel vows to use "more force" next time?

Cao wins, within 1000 votes of the margin I predicted (Edited title)

WV-02: Capito actually tied, Obama leads by single digits

The mistake named Sarah Palin: A compilation

Has Russia really invaded Georgia proper?

War between Russia and Georgia

The video that will win us this election (Updated)

Exit polls predict Obama with 64% in Lake County. UPDATE: Clinton leaving the race?

5 should be the actual number deducted from Clinton's NC/IN margins (Corrected)

Reflections on Silence

Turnout analysis (with graphs)