Preface:
This series came from my aborting a series I had been doing last fall. I feel that state lines are arbitrary and make it harder to draw compact districts, especially in a state like Maryland. So my idea was to redistrict the entire United States without regards to state borders. I'll put it this way - state legislatures don’t have to worry too much about “county rights” so neither should the feds worry about “states rights”. I am trying to do this in the most objective way possible so what I did was to divide the country into number of voters (excluding HI, AK, MT, RI, OR which are either noncontiguous or do not contain partisan data) and divide it into 423 districts, earmarking six districts for OR, two each for HI and RI and one for AK and MT. Now notice that I said that I am dividing the state by voters and not people. This came from all the literature out there about there being a discrepancy between the votes democrat receive and the seats they get. I had always wondered what an objective study would find in testing the “self-packing” theory. But what I found was that many studies were looking at population and not voters. I had long suspected there were substantial differences in # of active voters by district and I was correct.
The population needed to get to the required number of voters ranged from in the 500Ks in northern New England to upwards of a million in the outer boroughs of New York. Population is not the same thing as voters, so having the same number of voters in each district is, in my opinion, a better apples-to-apples comparison. One of the questions I can assume being asked is, states have different dates for primaries so how would it work for interstate districts? My response is that primaries for interstate races would be held on one day nationally while state primaries for districts entirely within a state would still be up for the states to decide. Now this would obviously take several decades to make something like this happen and would probably encounter opposition from federalist society blowhards about how it violates some bi-centenarian document. This is hypothetical and am well aware of the constitutional conflicts here. Now how did I compute the number of voters? Since TX is the only state with registration, I used what I felt to be a more reliable metric which was the 2008 election since it was a high turnout election and is available for almost all states. I felt this was a good proxy for voter turnout. I did not include third party #s because some states don’t have those #s. Lastly, I will break up this diary into twp parts: the districts that cross state boundaries and the ones that do not.
Interstate Districts:
District 3 Population 524249
Racial Statistics: 94.3 Wh, 1.8 Asn, 1.6 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.7 Bl, 0.2 Nat
79.2% VAP; 80% White VAP
PVI: D+7.7
Incumbent: C.S. Porter D-Rochester
Comments: This is the first tri-state district taking the coastlines of southern ME, far northern MA, and NH. It starts in the more exurban parts of Essex County and goes up I-95 through the small city of Portsmouth, ending just short of Portland. Its mostly a small town district where I would guess fisheries still make up a good % of the local economy. Porter is the incumbent here and although a lot of this area would be new to her, she has always had tough races and would probably rather run here. Likely D.
District 4 Population 658563
Racial Statistics: 75.7 Wh, 15.3 Hisp, 5.2 Asn, 2 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+0.4
75.4% VAP; 78.2 White VAP
Incumbent: Niki Tsongas D-Lowell
Comments: I think the income tax (and demographics) explains the difference between the MA and NH parts of the district. The Massachusetts side went 59% for Obama and contains Lowell and Lawrence in the Merrimack Valley. Both are old mill towns that have high (for New England) populations of Puerto Rican and Dominican immigrants. Predictably they are very democratic. The New Hampshire side went about 53% for McCain and is mostly anti-tax exurbs from former Bostonites. This almost cancels out the dem margins in Lowell and Lawrence and makes it basically a marginal district. Tsongas had a close call in a 2007 special election and if 2014 goes as expected, Tsongas could very well lose.
District 5 Population 578545
Racial Statistics: 87.8 Wh, 4.7 Hisp, 3.9 Asn, 1.7 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+0.6
76.3% VAP; 78% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is mostly based in Manchester, NH (Hillsborough County) and takes in some of rural Middlesex County, MA. Most of New England has trended pretty far left over the years but this area is odd. Hillsborough County either went for or came close to going for Adlai Stevenson in 1952 yet now its marginally RPVI. Actually, this area, now that I think about it, has seen a political parabola of sorts as this area was closer to R+10 in the 1980s. A lot of this is Porter’s district, but I see her running in the safer 3rd district. Guinta could run here, but I think he’s a weak incumbent. But a stronger republican should be able to hold it down. Still, this is the type of districts democrats need for a majority.
District 6 Population 559397
Racial Statistics: 95.2 Wh, 1.4 Oth, 1.3 Hisp, 1.2 Asn, 0.6 Bl, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+7
79.3% VAP; 79.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Ann Kuster D-Hopkinton
Comments: This is based in northern NH and NE Vermont. It’s a rural district made up of typical New England small towns. The NH portion is probably the most dem part of the state while the VT portion is the NE Kingdom which takes in the last dem part, but is still more dem than the NH portion. Kuster, who nearly won an open seat in 2010, came back to defeat Charles Bass (who had also represented the district from 95-07). Under this iteration its possible Bass would never have been a congressman in the first place and Richard Swett would still be in office. Likely D.
District 16 Population 650671
Racial Statistics: 83 Wh, 7.3 Hisp, 3.9 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+5.9
78.4% VAP; 80.4% White VAP
Incumbent: Joe Courtney D-Tolland
Comments: This is the eastern part of Connecticut which has more in common with rural New England than with the Bos-Wash region. New London is the only noteworthy city here. It also takes in a small part of Worcester County. This area has been represented by democrats for 43 of the last 55 years and for a noncontroversial incumbent like Courtney, is a safe seat.
District 18 Population 661427
Racial Statistics: 76.1 Wh, 14.6 Hisp, 5.2 Bl, 2.2 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+15.6
79% VAP; 82.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Richard Neal D-Springfield
Comments: Parts of the district is in rural/small town western Massachusetts which is similar to Vermont with a lot of scenery, college students (Amherst and Mount Holyoke) and counterculture types from New York in search of a more serene surrounding. All those areas/constituencies (as well as the part of the district in SEVT/SWNH) are what I call “liberal first/democratic second” types of places (in a PR system, they would probably be green party members). This is basically the upper Connecticut Valley and the area along the river is peppered with old mill towns like Northampton. Most of the district though is in Springfield which is a garden variety; mid size, heavily white ethnic (and Puerto Rican) New England city. Richard Neal, its congressman, who was once mayor of Springfield and has a good shot of becoming Ways and Means chairman. Safe D.
District 19 Population 634557
Racial Statistics: 79.8 Wh, 10.6 Hisp, 5.3 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+1.4
76.7% VAP; 79.7% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is mostly northwestern Connecticut with a small part of Hampden County, MA and Dutchess County, NY attached. This is a swing district with very few areas leaning strongly one way or another. Esty lives just outside this district and since this is the more dem of the two western Connecticut districts, I’d guess she would run here. Although Andrew Roraback nearly won this seat in 2012 and no dem has gotten 60% in this district since 1978, it should be lean D.
District 20 Population 635097
Racial Statistics: 78 Wh, 11.8 Hisp, 4.8 Bl, 3.4 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+2.7
76.1% VAP; 78% White VAP
Incumbent: SP Maloney D-Cold Spring
Comments: This takes in the more republican parts of Fairfield County as well as a small part of Litchfield and New Haven counties. The New York portion narrowly voted for McCain and, except for the small city of Newburgh, is mostly wealthy people looking for a more rural setting (sort of like Morris County). Maloney lives here, but I assume he would run in the more dem leaning 40th. It’s also possible Gibson runs here as this is the safest of the Hudson valley districts. If he doesn’t, someone from Putnam County could run here for the Rs. Likely R with Gibson, lean R with someone else.
District 21 Population 639301
Racial Statistics: 87.5 Wh, 4.2 Bl, 3.4 Hisp, 2.4 Oth, 2.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+3
78.1% VAP; 79.9% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: Most of the district is in the northern part of the Albany metro while the rest is in Southern Vermont (which is like western Massachusetts and skews the district left) and a few towns in Sullivan County, NH. The New York portion takes in parts of Saratoga, Warren, Washington, Albany, Schenectady, Fulton and Rensselaer counties. Its almost like the politics changes abruptly once you cross over from VT/Western Mass into NY. Troy I’d assume is the St Paul of the Albany area (with Albany being Minneapolis.) Schenectady and Glens Falls are basically old river cities. Saratoga Springs tends to attract a more liberal crowd since it is a sort of resort type place (think of Palm Springs with snow) and the rest of the county is mostly Albany commuters, who lean R. There is a guy I’ve talked with on the leip election forum called Mr. Phips who lives here and he could maybe run here. Lean D.
District 22 Population: 640900
Racial Statistics: 92.2 Wh, 2.1 Bl, 1.9 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 1 Nat
PVI: D+10.1
80.1% VAP; 80.5% White VAP
Incumbent: Peter Welch D-Hartland
Comments: This takes in a little over half of Vermont including the parts I’ve been to. There are lots of fun things to do like go hiking in the Mountains (or skiing in the winter) and see the Cabot and Ben and Jerry’s plants. There’s also some maple farmers who open up their farms for tours and sell their syrup for some extra $$$. The New York section which is almost half the district isn’t quite as liberal but is overall dem leaning. This area started voting for democrats before the rest of northern New England because of the large French Canadian population in Plattsburgh and Burlington. Al Smith and JFK won those counties when they ran for president, for instance. Also included In the New York part is Lake Placid (need any more convincing this is a tourist heavy place?) and Malone which was the home of Almanzo Wilder who is the protagonist in the book “Farmer Boy” (ever read that as a kid?). It also takes in a trivial town or two in western New Hampshire (Claremont and Cornish) Welch is the incumbent as was Bill Owens before he announced he was retiring. It’s not as safe as his existing district but it is still a DGLB type of seat.
District 25 Population 610197
Racial Statistics: 83.4 Wh, 7.4 Bl, 4.4 Hisp, 2.6 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+10.2
80% VAP; 82.2% White VAP
Incumbent: Chris Gibson R-Kinderhook
Comments: The New York portion takes in almost all of the city of Albany as well as the southern part of the county which is not very populated. Albany is interesting as it is the one part of upstate New York which began voting dem before everyone else did. It also takes in some of the more populated areas of Rensselaer County which consist mostly of industrial areas dotting the Hudson. The rest of the district consist of a mix of heavily dem hippie areas (Woodstock is in this district) as well as some more republican areas - Schoharie, Green and Delaware (ironically enough those three counties were dem leaning until the 1920s). The Massachusetts portion is mostly coterminous with Berkshire County which is a mix between old industrial areas (like Pittsfield, which was Sil Conte’s hometown) and a lot of counterculture types enjoying the scenery of the Berkshires (hence the name of the county). It’s the Massachusetts portion (3 to 1 for Obama) that really pushes this up to a D+10. Gibson lives here but he certainly wouldn’t run here. Tonko doesn’t live here but he likely runs here and is safe for life.
District 26 Population 679778
Racial Statistics: 75.2 Wh, 12.3 Hisp, 8.1 Bl, 2.1 Oth, 2 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+2
77.7% VAP; 80.7% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is the Lower Hudson Valley and where the NY area meets upstate New York. It looks like the 1990s Gilman district with some of the Kelly and Hinchey districts attached. It also takes in a small part of NEPA and some rural parts of Lackawanna County. This is mostly a swing district with not many areas leaning strongly one way or the other except for the minority areas of Kingston, Middletown and Poughkeepsie. Its possible that Chris Gibson runs here as the 20th is probably R by default and Gibson is often ranked as the most liberal republican and could take one for the team by winning a D+2 seat. Lean R with Gibson, tossup otherwise.
District 27 Population 662969
Racial Statistics: 90.3 Wh, 3.5 Hisp, 2.5 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+1.4
79.5% VAP 80.8% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The Pennsylvania portion is anchored in Scranton and is the D base of the district. The New York portion (65% of the district) takes in Binghamton which is similar to Scranton but the rest of the district is sort of a northern extension of the “T” and republican. It also contains Cooperstown which is where the MLB hall of fame is. No incumbent lives here, but Cartwright lives just outside the district and would run here. Cartwright’s voting record is pretty far left and the type of democrat to win here would probably be more of a John Murtha type. Not sure if Cartwright gets a primary challenger here but this would be a lean D seat normally and tossup in a bad year.
District 36 Population 876048
Racial Statistics: 48.8 Hisp, 21.5 Wh, 20 Bl, 7.8 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+30.3
77.5% VAP; 84.5% White VAP
Incumbent: Jose Serrano D-The Bronx
Comments: The New York portion of the district, with the exception of the posh Riverdale area, is mostly poor black and PR/Dominican neighborhoods. The most well known landmark in the district is Yankee stadium. What’s more interesting is that the part of the district in Manhattan was once its own district and sent Jacob Javits to congress from 1947 to 1955. The district crosses into New Jersey on the George Washington Bridge (that Chris Christie made famous). The New Jersey portion is far more affluent than the New York portion and has a large Jewish and Asian population. The NJ part is D+13 and is why the PVI isn’t higher (the NY part is D+37). Serrano I think lives in this district and would run here. He might attract a primary challenger from the New Jersey side of the district but is obviously safe in the general.
District 38 Population 683890
Racial Statistics: 61.1 Wh, 18.9 Hisp, 13.3 Bl, 4.5 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+9.1
75.8% VAP; 79% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is southwest Connecticut which is known as the gold coast because of a lot of the old money. It starts just west of New Haven and ends in Stamford. It also takes in some of the Pound Ridge area in New York. Not all of the district is like that as Bridgeport and Stamford are mostly minority and working class. Darien and New Canaan are the only republican parts of the district. Himes’ home in Cos Cob is removed but he would obviously run here as its even more dem than the existing CT 4. Its possible that Chris Shays would have lost here as early as 2004 and certainly would have in 2006. Himes is inoffensive and should be safe.
District 39 Population 700619
Racial Statistics: 54.4 Wh, 22.8 Hisp, 14.6 Bl, 6 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+11.2
76.2% VAP; 79.3% White VAP
Incumbent: Nita Lowey D-Harrison; Jim Himes D-Cos Cob
Comments: This is Lower Westchester County and contains a lot of big name areas. Scarsdale of course is one of the wealthiest communities in the state and Dobbs Ferry is where Zuckerberg is from. Further east is the wealthy community of Purchase, with its own SUNY and the Westchester County airport. It’s a mistake to think of this area as lily-white gated communities however. White Plains, Yonkers and Mount Vernon all contain substantial minority populations as blacks and Hispanics combine for 37 percent of the district’s population. The Connecticut portion, though only 10% of the district, is only about EVEN in PVI and is enough to shave a point off the district’s PVI. Still, for such a wealthy area, this area has been dem for awhile. Parts of this district have been represented by democrats for 38 of the last 42 years and Michael Dukakis came close to winning this seat. Lowey, who is 76, is Ranking Member on Appropriations, but I still see her retiring sometime this decade. Himes also lives in this district but would certainly run in the 38th. Someone like Assemblywoman Amy Paulin may represent this district in the future.
District 40 Population 644747
Racial Statistics: 66.4 Wh, 15.7 Hisp, 8.5 Asn, 7.7 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+2.2
75% VAP; 76.6% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The 40th starts out in the north Stamford area in Fairfield, takes in the northern half of Westchester (where the Clintons live) and crosses the TZ bridge to take in eastern Rockland county and snakes down to take the far NE part of Bergen county, where Obama only got 51% of the vote. This might make the list of the top 10 wealthiest districts in the country. No incumbent lives here but I could see Maloney being enticed to run here as opposed to the more republican leaning 20th. Maloney would be favored most years but a good challenger, particularly someone like Astorino, could certainly defeat him.
District 42 763674
Racial Statistics: 54.5 Wh, 22.6 Hisp, 16.4 Asn, 4.2 Bl, 2.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+28.8
86.9% VAP; 89.9% White VAP
Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler D-New York, Albio Sires D-West New York.
Comments: Ah yes, this is basically the “postcard New York” district. One can spend a week in New York without ever venturing outside this district as it contains Chinatown, Wall Street, the site of the new Freedom Tower, the Empire State Building, Tribeca, Little Italy, Times Square, Greenwich/East Village, and Hells Kitchen. It also crosses the Williamsburg Bridge to take in (from what I’ve heard) are the hipster parts of Brooklyn, and also crosses the Lincoln tunnel to take in the Hoboken/Weehauken/West New York area, which is majority Hispanic. This is also the oldest district I’ve drawn so far with nearly 87% of the population over 18. This isn’t surprising as most of this area caters to people without children. The district’s congressman, Jerrold Nadler (Sires lives here too but he would run in the 45th) is the no 2 ranking democrat on the judiciary committee. With John Conyers as of this writing facing ballot access issues, Nadler not only has a good shot to become ranking member but also chairman eventually. Safe D.
District 44 Population 748278
Racial Statistics: 60.9 Wh, 21.7 Hisp, 9 Bl, 6.8 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+1.2
73.3% VAP; 74.7% White VAP
Incumbent: Bill Pascrell D-Paterson
Comments: This is pretty similar to the Andy Maguire district of the 1970s with the heavily dem city of Paterson and some of Orange and Rockland counties attached in NY. The New Jersey portion is D+3 and 85% of the electorate while the New York portion, while only 15% of the electorate, is R+10, which shifts the PVI downwards. The NY portion also pushes the White VAP downwards as only 60% of the white population is over the age of 18 (a VAP comparable to South Texas). This is due to the large orthodox population in areas like Kiryas Joel and Viola. The district’s congressman, Bill Pascrell, is an inoffensive incumbent and should be ok. But he’s 77 and will probably retire sometime in the 2010s. Lean D with Pascrell, tossup without him.
District 46 Population 675413
Racial Statistics: 80.2 Wh, 9 Hisp, 5.8 Bl, 3.2 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+5.6
75.9% VAP; 78.3% White VAP
Incumbent: Leonard Lance R-Clinton Township
Comments: This is an odd mix between some ultra GOP parts of western New Jersey (NJ portion was 59% McCain) while the PA portion (42% of the electorate) was 56% Obama. In the end the NJ portion wins out. The NJ portion is a mix between rich people who want a more rural (read less diverse) surroundings and a bunch of paranoid Rambo types. The Pennsylvania portion is more or less Caseycrat types (read catholic working class industrial areas). Normally this wouldn’t be a problem for any R, but Garrett (who doesn’t live here but would run here_ is basically a John Bircher. It’s hard to know which area Garrett would do worse in, the more silk stocking and swingy areas of Passaic and Bergen that were kidnapped into his district, or the more working class but straight ticket D areas of NEPA. If a democrat from the Pennsylvania side of the district can put up huge numbers in the PA side and Garrett more or less gets the baseline in the NJ side, it could be enough to topple him. It should also be noted that Leonard Lance lives here and could be enticed to run here (as opposed to the D+3 53rd district). Lance would have a decent shot in the primary and safe beyond that.
District 47 Population 641515
Racial Statistics: 77.9 Wh, 10.6 Hisp, 7.3 Asn, 2.6 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+8.8
76.8% VAP; 78.2% White VAP
Incumbent: Rodney Frelinghuysen R-Morristown; Scott Garrett R-Wantage Twp
Comments: This is a district anchored in Morris County with some of Passaic, Sussex and Essex counties. It also crosses over into NY to take a small and more rural part of Orange County. This is similar to the 46th without the PA portion. A lot of acreages, horse farms and lakes dot the landscape in what is possibly the wealthiest district in the country. Rodney Frelinghuysen, the incumbent, is one of the few surviving members of the class of 1994. Frelinghuysen comes from a big political family going back generations – his father represented MoCo from 1953-1975. Like his father, his politics can be described as moderate to slightly conservative. Frelinghuysen is on the powerful appropriations committee and eyeing a potential chairmanship, could be in office for a dozen more years. Garrett lives here too, but he would run in the 46th. Safe R.
District 49 Population 863751
Racial Statistics: 51.5 Wh, 22.9 Hisp, 14.2 Bl, 9.4 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+3.7
76.7% VAP; 81.4% White VAP
Incumbent: Michael Grimm R-Staten Island
Comments: The 49th starts out in the far southwestern corner of Brooklyn, crosses the Verrazano (until the mid 60s, SI was isolated from the rest of NY) takes in all of Staten Island except for the south shore. It also crosses the Bayonne Bridge to take the far southern part of Hudson County as well as the Goethals Bridge to take in the Elizabeth/Rahway/Plainfield area. The New York portion is about R+2 while the New Jersey portion is D+8. The incumbent of course is Michael Grimm. Even when he was first elected, there were rumors that he was up to something. Grimm became better known this past January when he freaked out at a cameraman. As of this writing (May 1st), Grimm has recently been indicted and for all intents and purposes is done. This district was too dem for him to win anyways.
District 50 Population 718881
Racial Statistics: 67.4 Wh, 15.4 Hisp, 8.1 Asn, 7.4 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+3.2
76.9% VAP; 79.7% White VAP
Incumbent: Frank Pallone D-Long Branch
Comments: This is anchored in the more densely populated eastern part of Monmouth County. I would picture this part of NJ to be the classic image of youngsters having fun during the summer on the boardwalks and beaches. Also included is the boss’ hometown of Asbury Park. It also goes as far north to take in southern Middlesex county and the heavily dem and Hispanic city of Perth Amboy. The district then crosses the Arthur Kill to take in the south shore of Staten Island. The NY portion of the district went 68% for McCain which I’d assume is the most B&T part of New York. Frank Pallone, the district’s congressman, is currently on his thirteenth term and will probably be the RM on Energy and Commerce next January when Dingell and Waxman retire. However in this scenario his tenure could be imperiled. When he was first elected in 1988, his district was 62% Bush (and even today would vote something like 53% McCain) and it was considered a fluke victory as the district has only been dem due to the popularity of a longtime incumbent, who had died. He came even closer to losing in 1990. After the 1990 census, NJ went down a seat and his district was amalgamated with the more democratic 6th district. When the congressman he was supposed to have faced in a primary (Bernie Dwyer) retired, he was more or less homefree. But as he got a safer district, his voting record gradually shifted hard left. Although the district isn’t as R as his 80s district was, it’s still something he’s not used to representing and could pose some difficulty with a good challenger. Tossup with Pallone, Lean R in an open seat.
District 53 Population 640489
Racial Statistics: 71.7 Wh, 10.3 Bl, 9.1 Hisp, 7.2 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+2.5
76.6% VAP; 78.7% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This district starts out in Somerset County and the part of the county it takes in is GOP leaning (the only reason the county is swingy is because of the part near New Brunswick). It also takes in a small part of Middlesex County in what is the most GOP part of the county (Bound Brook area) Also included is most of Hunterdon County which, like the rest of Northwestern NJ, is full of secluded mansions and republican voting. The mercer county portion of the district, however, is the dem base of the district. Trenton, half of which is in this district, has been dem leaning for decades and is a mix between the remaining dem ethnic/labor voters as well as government/public employee union members (being the state capitol and all). The district also includes part of the Princeton University campus, which, like many universities (especially prestigious ones) tend to be very liberal. The district then proceeds to cross the Delaware into Pennsylvania. Almost the entire Pennsylvania portion is in Bucks County, which is equally a part of the Trenton and Philadelphia areas. The southern part of the Pennsylvania portion is more densely populated and fairly dem leaning while the rest of the district is more exurban/rural and slightly republican. This would have been Rush Holt’s district, but he is retiring. Lance’s home is put in the 46th, but he also has represented half of this district. He could take his chances with Garrett or “take one for the team” and run here, where he could possibly win. Tossup with Lance, lean D without him.
District 55 Population 655500
Racial Statistics: 88.2 Wh, 6.9 Bl, 2.4 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+1.3
78.3% VAP; 80% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This includes the far northwestern corner of Pennsylvania which contains the city of Erie which I think has a large Italian population and is dem leaning (Sort of a miniature Buffalo) while the rest of the Pennsylvania portion is either area that used to be dem leaning but is now slightly R leaning (Mercer County) or area that has always been republican (Venango). The Ohio portion (eastern Ashtabula, Trumbull and NE Mahoning) is D+9 and gives the PVI a boost. In its totality, the district is a good representation of the pre-1970 Democratic Party (ie white ethnic, industrial, working class areas). No incumbent lives here, but Kathy Dahlkemper has represented this area before and would probably be a good fit for this district. Tossup to Tilt D.
District 56 Population 603767
Racial Statistics: 88.2 Wh, 7.3 Bl, 2.2 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+0.4
78.7% VAP; 80.4% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: Just as a heads up the color scheme starts over after 55 so don't be confused when on the picture is a number 55 minus the district #. Anyways, The 56th district is based in the old steel mill towns along the Ohio, Shenango, Mahoning and Beaver Rivers such as Youngstown, Steubenville, New Castle, Rochester and Beaver Falls. It also takes in a negligible part of WV (far northern part of Hancock county). This sort of embodies the stereotype I have of Eastern Ohio/Western Pennsylvania which is very working to middle class, catholic and hard nosed. Indeed, some of this area was represented at different times by Wayne Hays (1949-77) and James Traficant (1985-02) who embody said stereotypes. Also reminds me of the movie Out of the Furnace. No incumbent lives here, but Tim Ryan would run here. Ryan, who despite only being 40 is already on his sixth term, is a very good fit for this area and could win reelection indefinitely and could become appropriations chairman in the 2030s. It’s less dem than the districts he’s represented before, but its more dem downballot and he should be fine unless another 2010 type year happens.
District 58 Population 592488
Racial Statistics: 91.1 Wh, 4.3 Bl, 1.8 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 1.3 Hisp, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+5.5
79.3% VAP; 80.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Tim Murphy R-Upper St Clair
Comments: Much of this district is in the southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Pittsburgh, starting just west of downtown. This area once made up the old 27th district of the 1950s and 1960s which was represented by James Fulton, a moderate republican. Further south are the coal counties of Washington and Greene counties which until not that long ago were bedrock dem counties (and was once represented by Thomas Morgan, another longtime congressman). A small part of the district takes in the southern part of Hancock and all of Brooke County in the West Virginia panhandle. The current congressman, Tim Murphy is the perfect type of republican for this area, in the mold of someone like Chris Smith - Catholic, pro-life, lenient on labor issues, and slightly conservative on everything else. Safe R for Murphy, lean R in an open seat.
District 64 Population 656430
Racial Statistics: 93 Wh, 2.8 Hisp, 1.7 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.9 Nat, 0.5 Asn
PVI: R+5.2
78% VAP; 78.9% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This starts just south of Buffalo to take in the southern part of Erie County (NY) which is sparsely populated and includes Jack Kemp’s hometown of Hamburg (though he was really from L.A.). It shifts south to take in Cattaraugus and Chautauqua counties (the western part of the old Reed-Goodell-Hastings-Lundine-Houghton district). The Pennsylvania portion (about a quarter of the district) is based mostly in McKean, Warren, Elk and Forest counties with parts of other counties here and there, stopping just short of Erie. The Pennsylvania portion of the district (along with parts of the 55th) are the areas of western Pennsylvania that were never dem to begin with (i.e. Venango, Butler, Crawford, Jefferson, Clearfield). No incumbent lives here, but Glenn Thompson could run here as its an open seat and has represented at least some of it. Likely R.
District 65 Population 709459
Racial Statistics: 91 Wh, 3 Bl, 2.1 Hisp, 1.9 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+7
79% VAP; 79.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Tom Reed R-Corning, Tom Marino R-Williamsport
Comments: This is really a case of Ithaca vs. the rest of the district. Ithaca of course is where Cornell University is and the only area in western New York that is liberal in the Manhattan/San Francisco sense of the term. Although less than 10% of the electorate, it also gave Obama nearly 80% of the vote in 2008 and without it, the district is R+10. The New York part of the district is the northernmost extension of the “Pennsylvania T” which is called that because the R base in PA on a map looks like a T. This is a rural district with Williamsport and Elmira the only other population centers. The Pennsylvania part is only 25% of the electorate but is R+16 and the GOP base of the seat. Not sure why the NY and PA areas vote so differently (even without Ithaca, the NY portion goes from R+4 only to R+7). In any case Tom Reed gets a safer district than the one he currently represents, as he had a close call in 2012. Reed’s greatest challenge is not the general election (where he would be safe) but in the primary as Marino lives here. Marino’s district has been carved up (half given to Barletta, a quarter to Cartwright). Barletta is pretty popular while Reed is rumored to have ethics issues. He also wouldn’t take his changes against Cartwright. Since he actually lives here and has represented a quarter of the seat, Marino logically would run here.
District 70 Population 672055
Racial Statistics: 84 Wh, 9 Hisp, 3.7 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+8.4
75.3% VAP; 77.4% White VAP
Incumbent: Joe Pitts R-Kennett Square
Comments: This is where the relatively liberal Philadelphia area abruptly becomes conservative Pennsylvania Dutch country. The district is anchored in Lancaster county and also takes in eastern York County, SW Chester, and a negligible part of Berks and Wilmington (DE) counties. Lancaster itself votes D and has had an influx of Puerto Ricans, but outside of that, a lot of the county is 65%+ republican and is the home of the Pennsylvania Dutch (who are actually German). The district isn’t as republican as it once was (it used to be closer to R+15 in the past), but much of this district hasn’t been represented by a dem congressman since the 1880s and it’s hard to see it doing such in the near future. Its congressman, Joe Pitts sort of has a reputation as deadweight and not a particularly strong vote-getter. He is 74 years old and will likely retire sometime in the 2010s. The Rs of course have a very strong roster of candidates willing to take his place and the district might be even safer with a fresh body in there.
District 74 Population 654887
Racial Statistics: 66.7 Wh, 15.9 Bl, 7.8 Hisp, 7.2 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+8.4
77.8% VAP; 81.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick R-Levittown
Comments: I’ve never been to the Philadelphia area, but I would guess this to be the most “white ethnic” of all the Philadelphia districts. It takes in the entire part of the city north of Summerdale and east of Olney. This part of the city was often the only part of the city with any republican pockets. It then proceeds to take in the southern part of Bucks County which is the most dem part of the county (though still less dem than the Philadelphia part of the district). Bucks County, even though the median income is about the same as Montgomery, is a county I’ve envisioned to be the Philadelphia equivalent of “bridge and tunnel” (ie Bucks as Suffolk, Montgomery as Westchester). Included in the Bucks county portion is the “second Levittown” which was built about five to ten years after the first one in Long Island. It then crosses the Delaware into Burlington County. The NJ portion is actually more dem leaning than the PA portion, clocking in around D+15. This is due to the NJ portion, being 30% black, as it contains most of the majority black town of Willingboro. I don’t know much about Burlington County, but I would assume it to be similar to Bucks County and the non Camden parts of Camden County. The incumbent here is Mike Fitzpatrick who is sort of a Chris Smith type republican (catholic, pro-life, but moderate otherwise). Still, its hard to imagine him winning a D+8 district. Brendan Boyle would probably run here. Lean/Likely D.
District 77 Population 707169
Racial Statistics: 37.6 Bl, 30 Wh, 25.7 Hisp, 4.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+32.1
74.3% VAP; 86.1% White VAP
Incumbent: Bob Brady D-Philadelphia
Comments: This takes in much of central Philadelphia including the downtown area, the eastern part of the Italian Southside, the white working class areas of Bridesburg and Kensington, the black neighborhoods of Allegany West, Germantown and Tioga, as well as much of the city’s Hispanic population in the fairhill district. It crosses the Delaware to take in much of the minority areas of Camden County (Camden, Pennsauken, and Woodlynne) and also a negligible part of Burlington County (Palmyra and Riverton), which is mostly white and middle class. The district’s congressman Bob Brady, is a throwback to the old big city/Irish/union boss. His voting record, however, is closer to that of a CBC member (like Chaka Fattah) than a white ethnic type of democrat (i.e. Lipinski).
District 78 Population 618500
Racial Statistics: 47.5 Bl, 38.4 Wh, 7.4 Asn, 4.2 Hisp, 2.3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+29.8
78.3% VAP; 86.9% White VAP
Incumbent: Chaka Fattah D-Philadelphia
Comments: This is mostly the south and west sides of Philly. South Philadelphia is mostly Italian with some black pockets (Point Breeze) as well as some white liberal areas in Rittenhouse and Fairmount. Also included is Penn U, which is an Ivy League school. The area west of the Schuylkill is heavily black. It also takes in some of the easternmost part of Delaware County which is relatively densely populated and the first part of the county to be settled. The Delaware county portion is racially integrated (49.4% white, 38.7% black) and is about D+17. The district then crosses the Walt Whitman bridge into the Brooklawn and Gloucester city area of Camden County and the northern part (National Park, Westville) of Gloucester County. The Gloucester portion is the most dem part of the county and the New Jersey portion in general is similar to Burlington County – mostly white and middle class and somewhat dem leaning (NJ portion is D+8 and 81% white). The district’s congressman is Chaka Fattah (originally Arthur Davenport) who although is pretty liberal, he is not vocally militant like other CBC members are. The white voters in this district, many of which he has never represented, probably wouldn’t find any problem with him. He also has a good shot at becoming appropriations chairman someday. Safe D obviously.
District 80 Population 619038
Racial Statistics: 70.1 Wh, 18.7 Bl, 6.3 Hisp, 3 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+9.5
76% VAP; 79.3% White VAP
Incumbent: John Carney D-Wilmington
Comments: This is another tri-state district. The Pennsylvania district is southern DelCo with a small part of Chester County. It also includes the city of Chester, which, before World War II, was a city in its own right, and not really influenced by Philadelphia (ie Joliet to Chicago). As the rural areas between the cities were eaten up by construction, they sort of meshed together. Chester, from what I’ve heard is basically a lesser known Camden, with similar problems (I’ve heard 42% of Chester is below the poverty line). What’s odd is that there is a notorious republican political machine in Chester that has dominated city government since 1866 and has continued even as the city has become majority black. Like many machines, the one in Chester has a reputation for rampant corruption. The Delaware portion is the dem base of the district as it is D+17 and contains the heavily democratic city of Wilmington, which I think of as a larger version of Chester. The New Jersey portion is the least dem part of the district and is only D+2, most of the NJ portion is in Gloucester County, which is connected to Pennsylvania via the John Barry Bridge. I would assume Gloucester County is similar to Burlington County (white and middle class). The district’s incumbent is John Carney who was the only (outside of the HI special election and LA fluke) dem to win a previously republican seat in 2010. This district hasn’t voted republican for president since 1988 and should be safe D unless it’s an open seat or a DGLB situation.
District 81 Population 731624
Racial Statistics: 63.7 Wh, 15.4 Bl, 15 Hisp, 3.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+3.4
77.1% VAP; 81.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Frank LoBiondo R-Ventor
Comments: This is far South Jersey. Outside of the Northwestern part of the state, this is the most rural part of the state with sleepy seaside resorts and small towns in the coastal plains such as Bridgeton and the heavily Hispanic city of Vineland. Being south of the mason Dixon line here I think there may have even been a southern influence here until about World War II. The district also crosses the Delaware Memorial Bridge to take in the Wilmington Manor and New castle areas in Delaware which, although only 11 or 12 percent of the district, knocks the PVI up a few points. The NJ portion is D+0.5 while the DE portion is D+25 and 36% black. Frank LoBiondo is the congressman here and one of the few survivors of the class of 1994. In the twenty years before him, the district was however, represented by a democrat by the name of Bill Hughes. In 2012, he was held to his lowest % of the vote since he lost in 1992 with a still solid 58%. Unfettered by this solid showing, the dems plan to contest the seat by running Bill Hughes’ son. This district is a few points more dem than his current district, but I still see it Lean R (though in a better year, it probably is a tossup).
District 1 (Blue) Population 562229
Racial Statistics: 95.3 Wh, 1.4 Oth, 1.1 Hisp, 1 Nat, 0.7 Asn, 0.5 Bl
PVI: D+1.5
80.1% VAP; 80.8% White VAP;
Incumbent: Chellie Pingree D-North Haven
Comments: This is upstate Maine and is obviously the most remote part of the state. Despite being the whitest district drawn in this series, it has the most Native Americans of any district drawn thus far. Culturally, this area is not much different from New Brunswick or Quebec. Significant portions of the population probably have at least some Canadian ancestry. The incumbent here would have been Mike Michaud, but he of course is running for governor. Pingree lives here but she’s probably too liberal for this seat and would opt to run in the 2nd. I assume State rep Emily Cain would run here and its probably lean/tilt D in an open seat but likely D afterwards (assuming Cain wins).
District 2 (Green) Population 542240
Racial Statistics: 93.2 Wh, 2 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 1.5 Hisp, 1.2 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+7.5
78.8% VAP; 80.1% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is downstate Maine and is the more comparatively urban of the two districts. Portland is in this district, which although its not the state capitol, is the largest city in the state. Also included is Androscoggin County, which I think has a large French Canadian population (since before the 1960s it was the only dem part of the state). No incumbent lives here but I assume Pingree runs here and should be basically safe.
District 7 (Dark Gray) Population 656127
Racial Statistics: 58.9 Wh, 18.2 Bl, 11 Hisp, 8.6 Asn, 3.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+24.7
80% VAP; 84.2% White VAP
Incumbent: Joseph Kennedy III D-Brookline, Stephen Lynch D-Boston
Comments: District 7 is a heavily dem district but it contains two very different wings of the party. The Wellington Hill, Dorchester and Roxbury Crossing areas are the poorest parts of Boston. The Belmont, Newton, Brookline and Brighton areas are among the wealthiest areas of the Boston metro. Belmont, of course is where Mitt Romney is registered to vote. Also included is Boston College, which I’ve heard is (by catholic college standards) pretty liberal. Kennedy lives here, but I suspect he runs in the 8th. The district’s congressman, Stephen Lynch, may not be well liked in the Brookline and Newton areas and its possible he attracts a primary challenger.
District 8 (Slate Blue) Population 607257
Racial Statistics: 79.1 Wh, 7.9 Asn, 6.7 Hisp, 3.3 Oth, 2.8 Bl, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+9.6
76.4% VAP; 78% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The area within the 8th district can be described as the western suburbs and exurbs of the Boston area. It’s pretty similar to the Non-Boston parts of the 7th and is overall a pretty wealthy area. The most notable landmark is probably Wellesley University, a seven sisters school, in the southeast corner of the district. No incumbent lives here, but Joe Kennedy probably runs here. He should be safe.
District 9 (Cyan) Population 600944
Racial Statistics: 82 Wh, 8.3 Hisp, 4.6 Asn, 3.2 Bl, 1.8 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+4.7
77.9% VAP; 80.1% White VAP
Incumbent: Katherine Clark D-Melrose, John Tierney D-Salem
Comments: This is an interesting case where the Middlesex portion of the district is actually more dem leaning than the Salem portion. Lynn, Salem, Peabody and Beverly are pretty dem leaning while the Reading, Stoneham, Woburn areas are light blue. This area is less dem leaning and less wealthy than some of the other Boston suburbs. I’d guess this area to be solidly middle class catholic areas. Both Tierney and Clark live here. Tierney of course had a close call in 2012 and is considered to be mortally wounded. Clark, who has less than a term of experience and without any baggage, could possibly win a primary against him. Tossup with Tierney, Lean D with Clark.
District 10 (Deep Pink) Population 783085
Racial Statistics: 59.7 Wh, 15.1 Hisp, 11.6 Asn, 9.2 Bl, 4.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+19.6
84% VAP; 89.1% White VAP
Incumbent: Mike Capuano D-Somerville
Comments: The one thing that catches my attention is that the tenth district is a low turnout district in the high-turnout state of Massachusetts. What’s even stranger is that this is an old district as only sixteen percent of the population is children. The logical explanation is that the tenth probably has more foreign born residents than any other New England district. I would describe the tenth as a “postcard Boston” district as much of the things to do in Boston are in this district – the Kennedy museum, Fenway Park, the Little Italy section and much of the things seen on the bus and jet ski tours. This is also the College district as Harvard, MIT, Tufts and Northeastern are all in this district. The presence of universities, as well as the hip South End (not to be confused with South Boston) make this a SWPL favored district, although plenty of the district is not. Mike Capuano, with his stereotypical Boston accent, is on his eighth term and is sort of a fusion candidate – balancing the interests of the labor/class warfare types and the SWPL/Academia constituency.
District 11 (Chartreuse) Population 591725
Racial Statistics: 86.6 Wh, 5.2 Hisp, 4 Oth, 2.6 Bl, 1.2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+9
80.2% VAP; 82.4% White VAP
Incumbent: William Keating D-Bourne
Comments: Keating is another incumbent who gets a boost, removing marginal areas from Plymouth/Norfolk and adding heavily dem Bristol County from the third and fourth. Bristol County takes in the working class mill towns of Fall River and New Bedford. The rest of the district though is more limousine liberal with the vacation areas of Hyannis Port, Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. Hyannis Port, of course, is a Kennedy hangout place and Provincetown/Cape Cod is where the pilgrims first landed. Keating, is a noncontroversial incumbent and should be safe.
District 12 (Cornflower Blue) Population 602909
Racial Statistics: 81.2 Wh, 8.2 Bl, 4.2 Oth, 3.4 Hisp, 2.8 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+0.9
76.5% VAP; 78.3% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The twelfth is what is leftover from the Lynch and Keating districts. It’s a pretty middle class area and none of the area leans strongly one way or another (except for Brockton). The Massachusetts republicans have not won a regularly scheduled federal election since 1994 and would certainly contest this seat, eager to break the losing streak. Tossup.
District 13 (Dark Salmon) Population 596771
Racial Statistics: 88.6 Wh, 3.2 Hisp, 3.2 Asn, 2.8 Bl, 2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+1.1
75.5% VAP; 76.6% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is leftovers from the 3rd, 4th and 9th districts. It’s pretty similar to the twelfth although maybe a little wealthier. The thirteenth is equally influenced by the Boston and Providence metros. The Bristol portion is less dem then the part in the 11th while the Norfolk portion is middle to upper middle class areas that are marginal. The most notable landmark here is Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots play. Much of this area was represented by House Speaker/Minority Leader Joseph Martin from 1925-1967. Like the twelfth, you can bet the MAGOP will contest this seat. Tossup.
District 17 (DarkSlateBlue) Population 661167
Racial Statistics: 80.6 Wh, 9.6 Hisp, 4 Bl, 3.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+3.4
77% VAP; 79.7% White VAP
Incumbent: James McGovern D-Worcester
Comments: This is the Worcester district. What’s odd about this area is that although it’s not especially dem leaning, it has elected democrats far longer than other parts of the state. Some democrats to represent this area in the past include Harold Donohue, Phil Philbin and Joseph Early. The city of Worcester itself is just another New England mill town with a growing minority population and heavily democratic. The rest of the district is either typical rural New England or Boston expats and is marginal. This area on the whole seems to be trending slightly republican. The district’s incumbent, Jim McGovern is probably too far to the left of the district, but the republicans never seem to put up good challengers. If they can finally put up a decent opponent and the R trend accelerates, McGovern could be in trouble.
Connecticut
District 14 (Olive) Population 678943
Racial Statistics: 58.6 Wh, 18.8 Hisp, 15.6 Bl, 4.7 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+16.2
77.4% VAP; 83.3% White
Incumbent: John Larson D-East Hartford
Comments: This is a Hartford centered district. Hartford has always been the most democratic part of the state and this district has only elected a republican twice since World War II. This district has not had gone republican for president since 1984 and not had an RPVI since 1956. Hartford is the state capitol and the state’s largest city. It’s a larger version basically of its neighbor to the north, Springfield. Although the Hartford area has accumulated a lot of wealth in the insurance industry, the city of Hartford itself is very poor. The district’s congressman, John Larson, is on his eighth term and is a mover/shaker in the democratic caucus, serving as chair of the HDC from 2009-2013. Safe D.
District 15 (Dark Orange) Population 636211
Racial Statistics: 70.5 Wh, 12.7 Hisp, 11.5 Bl, 3.5 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+10.8
78% VAP; 81.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Rosa DeLauro D-New Haven, Liz Esty D-Cheshire
Comments: This is a New Haven/Middlesex district. This area is sort of where the New York area turns into New England. I’d guess that the number of Yankees and Red Sox fans would be pretty even. The main city in this district is New Haven, which is where Yale is. Much of this area has been dem for a long time. In fact I’ll throw a trivia question – this district has gone dem only once since 1956 – who was the dem that lost and what year (hint: pariah of Daily Kos). Both Esty and DeLauro live here, though Esty probably runs in the 19th. Safe D.
New York
District 28 (Plum) Population 659181
Racial Statistics: 77.1 Wh, 13.2 Hisp, 4.7 Bl, 3.2 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+0.7
76.9% VAP; 79% White VAP
Incumbent: Tim Bishop D-Southampton
Comments: This is the easternmost part of Long Island. There are really two components to the district. The eastern part is still like rural New England and is full of resorts and second homes for the wealthy (Southampton, East Hampton and Bridgehampton, known collectively as The Hamptons). The further west you go, the more densely populated it becomes. This is a marginal district with few areas leaning strongly one way or another. The district’s incumbent, Tim Bishop, has only gotten above sixty percent once and has ethics issues. I would peg this as Tossup/Tilt D.
District 29 (Dark Sea Green) 675498
Racial Statistics: 68.3 Wh, 18.6 Hisp, 7.8 Bl, 3.7 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+1.5
75.1% VAP; 77.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Steve Israel D-Dix Hills
Comments: One thing I’ve always wondered is why eastern Long Island is more republican than Westchester. There certainly is the fact that there are more blacks and Hispanics in Westchester but even looking only at heavily white precincts, Obama actually won 56 or so percent of the white vote compared to about 48 percent in Suffolk (this is 2008). My guess is that Westchester’s white population has been a northward migration from Manhattan and the Bronx and is more Jewish and descended from red diaper babies. Suffolk’s population meanwhile has been an eastward migration from areas like Queens and is more Irish and Italian where the adults grew up voting for the Conservative Party and joining YAF (the Lawn Guyland types as it were). This area is mostly light red except for Brentwood, which is majority Hispanic. Even if Hispanics don’t vote much, it is enough to swing the district slightly left. The district’s incumbent, Steve Israel, is a major power player in the house democratic caucus as chair of the dccc. He’s also a strong incumbent who always runs ahead of the ticket. Unless Rick Lazio can be convinced to run here, this is a Likely D seat.
District 30 (Light Coral) Population 638416
Racial Statistics: 72.6 Wh, 13.7 Hisp, 6.5 Asn, 5.7 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+2.9
76.9% VAP; 79% White VAP
Incumbent: Peter King R-Seaford
Comments: This area is a little more polarized than the rest of Long Island. There are some heavily dem areas (Lindenhurst, parts of Huntington, Jericho, Plainview, Glen Cove) and heavily republican areas (Massapequa, Bayville, Muttontown). My guess is that the former is mostly Jewish while the latter is mostly catholic. Also in this district is Levittown which was the first master planned community. The district’s congressman of course is Peter King, who is a Giuliani type (abrasive, tough on national security, moderate otherwise). He’s also the last artifact of the oftentimes corrupt Nassau GOP machine. In fact he is the only republican left in eastern LI. Some of this area has not had a dem congressman since the late 1960s when Al Lowenstein was congressman. This district as it stands is more R leaning than King’s current one, but not as R leaning as his 2000s district. I expect King to be somewhat safe, but the dems will surely put a topflight challenger when he retires (he recently turned seventy).
District 31 (Khaki) Population 819724
Racial Statistics: 48.9 Wh, 31.8 Asn, 12.7 Hisp, 4 Bl, 2.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+4.9
80.4% VAP; 82.3% White VAP
Incumbent: Grace Meng D-Flushing
Comments: The 31st is some of the north shore of Long Island, NE Queens and a negligible part of Bronx on the other side of the TN bridge (which is only light blue). The closest thing to a descendant of this district is the 1970s sixth district. Great Neck of course has a large Jewish population and (parts of it at least) are heavily democratic. In fact according to my 1974 almanac, Great Neck even went for McGovern! The Nassau portion in general is mostly light blue except for Garden City which is super wealthy and super republican. The Queens portion has a large Asian population (especially in the Flushing area). The 31st is in fact the most heavily Asian district not in CA or HI. The Queens portion is the whitest and wealthiest and not surprisingly, least dem, part of the borough. This part of Queens includes Bayside which is where Jordan “Wolf of Wall Street” Belfort is from. The district’s congresswoman, Grace Meng, is on her first term, and although the 31st is substantially less dem than her current one, she should be OK unless she gets into ethics troubles or something like that.
District 32 (OrangeRed) Population 660414
Racial Statistics: 52.4 Wh, 22.1 Bl, 19 Hisp, 4.6 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+7.6
76.5% VAP; 79.8% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: Although she lives in Mineola (which is in the 31st), this would have been Carolyn McCarthy’s district had she not retired. This has always been the most dem part of Long Island and not surprisingly, is the most minority part of LI. The 32nd also has a population density higher than some cities and was the first part of Long Island to be settled (first major subdivisions probably started appearing here in the interwar period). I read in one of the 70s Almanacs that Nassau was a good representation of the pre-WWII population of New York. Nassau at one point was a quarter Jewish while Suffolk was disproportionately catholic (Catholics in NY were voting republican before it was cool). This explained why Nassau was substantially less republican than Suffolk (though the gap has been muted as of late and entirely erased when looking only at whites). There are of course republican precincts in the Woodmere and Garden City South areas, but it is swamped by the Hempstead, Freeport, Roosevelt and Valley Stream areas. It also takes in a small part of heavily black SE Queens. Despite always being the most dem part of LI, it took years for the democrats to win this seat. That is because the district was held by talented republicans like John Wydler (1963-1981) and Ray McGrath (1981-1993). When McGrath retired in 1992, he was replaced by Daniel Levy who might still be in office today. But he was primaried in 1994 by Dan Frisa, who was considered too far right for this district. In 1996, Frisa was unseated (by a landslide) by Carolyn McCarthy and has been dem ever since. I doubt that Kathleen Rice, the DA of Nassau, will have any trouble here.
District 33 (Royal Blue) Population 967004
Racial Statistics: 43.7 Bl, 25.4 Hisp, 12.6 Wh, 11.7 Asn, 6.2 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: D+33.8
75.4% VAP, 85% White VAP
Incumbent: Greg Meeks D-Queens
Comments: This is the South Queens district. This area has long been the most democratic part of Queens and has not gone republican for president since 1956. This is in part due to the large black population, which began arriving here in the 60s and 70s. Queens is a very racially mixed area, but the SE Queens area sticks out since there are a lot of 90%+ black precincts. The Ozone Park and Jamaica Estates areas are however, what one would expect in Queens (racially diverse). It should be noted that this district, thus far, has the highest percentage of people identifying as other (I’ve always wondered what type of people check that box). Also included in the Queens part is Howard Beach, in which there was a notorious racial disturbance there back in the 80s. The most well known landmark here is JFK Airport which has nonstop flights to dozens of different countries. Crossing Jamaica Bay leads one to Holland and Edgemere, which are also heavily minority. The Brooklyn portion has some majority black, some majority Hispanic areas and some black-transitioning-to-Hispanic areas. Greg Meeks, the district’s congressman, is on his eighth full term. Although he was investigated by the ethics committee, he was cleared and should continue to rise up the seniority ladder.
District 34 (Lime Green) Population 1179876
Racial Statistics: 41.7 Hisp, 29.2 Wh, 16.5 Asn, 10.4 Bl, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+25.9
79.9% VAP; 87.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Joe Crowley D-Queens
Comments: This contains parts of four different boroughs, though the majority of the district is in western Queens, Geraldine Ferraro’s former stomping grounds. Queens as a whole is pretty racially mixed, though much of the borough’s Hispanic population is in this part of the district (the Corona area). The two main landmarks here are LaGuardia Airport and Citi Field where the Mets play. The white vote in this area is pretty mixed. The area around Middle Village has always been pretty conservative while the area around Long Island City I assume is more SWPL/bohemian. The Brooklyn part is the next big portion and includes some bohemian areas in Greenpoint while the rest is Hispanic (Bushwick) or black transitioning to Hispanic. The small parts of Manhattan and the Bronx are Lenox Hill and Port Morris. I think the main question about this district is – why is there such low turnout? After all, only 20% of the population is under eighteen. I think the main reason is that probably only half the population is eligible to vote since many of the people are immigrants. The rest of it comes from this being a safe dem area and having no reason to vote. The district’s congressman, Joe Crowley, is an up and comer in the dem caucus and may be the next DCCC chair.
District 35 (Dark Orchid) Population 651603
Racial Statistics: 55.7 Wh, 19.7 Hisp, 14.6 Bl, 7.7 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+31.5
84% VAP; 87.2% White VAP
Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney D-New York; Charles Rangel D-New York
Comments: Manhattan in general seems different from the rest of New York City. I’ve been to Manhattan before and always wondered why I never heard any accent. My impression is that few of the prewar population of the New York area lives here and this area is mostly transplants either from within the country or immigrants. The two main landmarks here are Columbia University and Central Park. The 35th is probably the smallest geographical district in the country and the only NYC district with high turnout. A lot of this turf here – the upper east and upper west sides, is some of the wealthiest in the country. It’s only the Harlem and East Harlem areas, some of the poorest urban neighborhoods in the country, that bring the numbers down. Both Rangel and Maloney live here, though I think Rangel retires.
District 37 (Dodger Blue) Population 1076335
Racial Statistics: 51.9 Hisp, 31.6 Bl, 10.5 Wh, 3.8 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+35.1
73.2% VAP; 85.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Eliot Engel D-Bronx
Comments: This is the Bronx district as almost the entire district is in the Bronx and about three quarters of the borough is in this district. This is obviously a heavily dem district and any dem running here will be safe. However the real story is in the primary. Eliot Engel, who has sort of a Mort Goldman accent, lives in Edenwald and would probably run here. However, the fact that Blacks and Hispanics combine for 83% of the population might hurt Engel in the primary. This is actually the only Hispanic majority district in the Northeast. Engel did, however, represent a heavily minority district in the 90s and survived primary challenges. So it’s hard to tell.
District 41 (LightSteelBlue) Population 822050
Racial Statistics: 47 Bl, 26.6 Wh, 18.5 Hisp, 5.3 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+40
77.4% VAP; 79.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries D-Brooklyn Yvette Clark D-Brooklyn Nydia Velazquez D-Brooklyn
Comments: This takes in the heavily black central part of Brooklyn while the areas closer to the East River/Upper New York Bay (except for Hispanic Sunset Park) are majority white and gentrified. Both constituencies however are heavily democratic and of the districts I’ve drawn thus far, is the most democratic. It also could be the site of a three-way race between incumbents. My hope is that Jeffries wins as he seems like an up and comer likely to chair Judiciary (and is only one of two freshman on the committee).
District 48 (Sandy Brown) Population 1120220
Racial Statistics: 49.2 Wh, 19.7 Bl, 17.1 Asn, 12.2 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+6.5
76% VAP; 77% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is South Brooklyn. There are some black majority areas in the NE part of the district, though much of the district is white and asian. As many as three districts (or at least parts of) used to be in this district – the Celler/Holtzman seat, the Multer/Podell/Solarz seat and the Carey/Zeferetti district. This district is probably 30-35% Jewish which would probably make it the most Jewish in the nation. But the Jews here aren’t your stereotypical Rodney Dangerfield (aka Jacob Cohen) or Jerry Seinfeld types. A lot of them tend to be orthodox Jews and have a lot more children than other Jews. Some areas, like Borough Park, are Hasidic Jews, which wear the hat and beard and everything. I think the main difference between Orthodox and Hasidic is that Hasidic are easier to identify while Orthodox aren’t. The most notable landmark here is Coney Island with its boardwalks, beaches and roller coasters. The district also takes in a small part of Queens, crossing the MP Bridge to take in the Neponsit/Breezy Point area, which is pretty republican. No incumbent lives here and had he not blown his second chance, Weiner could have run here. My guess is that the dem running here will be someone like Stephen Solarz (which I mentioned above represented a lot of this area) – hawkish on Middle Eastern issues, liberal on everything else. The big question mark is the orthodox. The reason for the large population is because many of them are immigrants and/or children. When they start voting, will it put this seat in play for republicans?
District 23 (Aquamarine) Population 753438
Incumbent: Richard Hanna R-Barneveld; Paul Tonko D-Armsterdam
Racial Statistics: 89.3 Wh, 3.9 Hisp, 3.4 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+6.2
77.2% VAP; 78.6% White VAP
Comments: The bulk of this area is in the Mohawk Valley which is an economically depressed area. Main towns here are Utica and Rome. It also goes north to the Canadian border and further north is the small city of Watertown, which I’d assume is similar to Utica/Rome. It also takes in the farthest western part of the Albany area including Amsterdam and parts of Schenectady. The former is the home of Congressman Paul Tonko, though I doubt he runs here. This is, in fact, the most republican district entirely within New York. Also notable is the low turnout compared to other parts of upstate. The district’s congressman, Richard Hanna, is independently wealthy (I think from the construction industry). He also was the only republican to vote against a defund Planned Parenthood measure and one of only a half dozen to vote against the twenty week ban. He’s a little more to the right on fiscal issues and has been endorsed by the NRA, but overall his voting record puts him on the list of the top ten most liberal republicans. This of course has drawn him a primary challenger, though I suspect him to win easily. Likely/Safe R.
District 24 (Indigo) 666062
Racial Statistics: 83.5 Wh, 7.9 Bl, 3.5 Hisp, 2.3 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: D+4.5
78.1% VAP; 80.5% White VAP
Incumbent: Dan Maffei D-DeWitt
Comments: The 24th is the Syracuse district, taking in all of Onondaga County and the surrounding small cities of Fulton, Oswego and Auburn. I’ve driven through Syracuse before but I really don’t much about the place except that there is a University with a good basketball team there. From 1981-2009 this was a republican district. For twenty of those years it was represented by James Walsh, who was a moderate republican. He was scared into retirement after a close call in 2006. The man he nearly lost to, Dan Maffei, won the seat in 2008 by ten points and lost in 2010 in a quasi-upset. Ann Marie Buerkle, who he lost to, appeared to fit the David Funderburk/Andrea Seastrand mold of someone who wins a seat in a wave and is too conservative for the seat and then loses the next go round. Although Maffei won a rematch in 2012, he won by less than I thought. Still, Maffei could be the first democrat since James Hanley (congressman from 1965-1981) to consistently hold down a Syracuse-based seat.
District 61 628594
Racial Statistics: 76.4 Wh, 11.7 Bl, 7 Hisp, 2.8 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+5
77.1% VAP; 80.4% White VAP
Incumbent: Louise Slaughter D-Fairport
Comments: This is most of the city of Rochester, as well as the southern and eastern suburbs of Brighton and Fairport. The former is where I lived for awhile as a kid. The rest of the district is typical republican upstate New York. The district’s congresswoman, Louise Slaughter, is the ranking democrat on the Rules committee. She is, however, almost 85, and will probably retire in 2016. Not sure who the dems have to replace her.
District 62 638016
Racial Statistics: 84.4 Wh, 7.6 Bl, 3.8 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+4.6
77.7% VAP; 79.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Chris Collins R-Clarence
Comments: This is the “Rochester to Buffalo” district. Its sort of a mashup between the old LaFalce and Paxon districts. With the exception of the western part of Rochester and the small city of Lockport, this is a pretty republican district. The district’s congressman, Chris Collins, unseated Kathy Hochul in 2012, who was elected in a 2011 special election after the incumbent resigned. The district Collins unseated Hochul in, however, was a few points more republican than this district. Under these lines, Hochul may have won. But as an incumbent in a still-red district, Collins has an advantage (and Hochul has now been appointed Lt Gov). Likely R I would say.
District 63 670230
Racial Statistics: 70.5 Wh, 18.6 Bl, 5.4 Hisp, 2.9 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: D+10
78.6% VAP; 82.7% White VAP
Incumbent: Brian Higgins D-Buffalo
Comments: The 63rd consists of almost all of the city of Buffalo and some areas to the north. Buffalo, like many great lakes cities, was an industrial powerhouse and attracted a lot of immigrants, especially the Polish. Since WWII, the city of Buffalo’s population has been cut in half and the city now has as many people as it did in the 1890s. The main factors I assume are 1) automation of jobs 2) the advent of air conditioning as an excuse to leave for places like FL or AZ and 3) white flight/racial strife. As a result the only people left in the city were often those who didn’t have the means to leave – 35% of Buffalo is below the poverty line. The rest of the area to the north is/was the more dem areas of LaFalce’s old district (Tonawanda, Amherst, Niagara Falls). This is a pretty dem district and probably hasn’t voted republican since 1972. No reason Higgins (the incumbent) should have any trouble.
New Jersey
District 43 (Magenta) Population 779574
Racial Statistics: 39.9 Bl, 38.9 Wh, 14.1 Hisp, 5 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+18.4
74.3% VAP; 77.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Donald Payne Jr D-Newark
Comments: This contains all the heavily black areas in the Newark area, as well as some white suburban areas to the south and west (some of which are very wealthy like Milburn or Short Hills), which of course lowers the PVI. This area was represented by Donald Payne for 23 years and when he died in 2012, was replaced by his son Donald Jr. There’s no reason he shouldn’t enjoy a long tenure like his father (or Peter Rodino and Joseph Minish before him). Safe D.
District 45 (Turquoise) Population 1015201
Racial Statistics: 37.3 Wh, 37.1 Hisp, 11.9 Bl, 11 Asn, 2.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+13
78% VAP; 83.8% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This district probably closely resembles the stereotype of New Jersey many think of - factories spewing smoke into the already smoggy air, swampland pocked with truck terminals and warehouses, grim lines of row houses and the Hudson River docks. This is a pretty densely populated district – probably close to ten thousand people per square mile. A good part of the district is in Hudson County while the rest takes in the more Hispanic parts of Newark (and also Liberty Airport, a hub in its own right). The district proceeds up the Passaic to take in the Meadowlands (where the Jets and Giants play) and ends in the heavily Hispanic city of Passaic. No incumbent lives here, but Albio Sires lives just outside this district. No reason to think he wouldn’t run here and win easily.
District 51 752647
Racial Statistics: 82.1 Wh, 9.7 Hisp, 4.5 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+10.2
76.2% VAP; 77.8% White VAP
Incumbent: Chris Smith R-Hamilton Township
Comments: A majority of this district is in Ocean County while the rest is in parts of Monmouth, Burlington and Mercer counties. It’s really the first time an Ocean-centric district has been drawn. Ocean County is the only part of the state that is fast growing and a lot of retirement condos are being built there. Lakewood I think also has a large orthodox Jewish population which has a lot of 80+ percent McCain precincts. The rest of the district (particularly some blue areas near Trenton) tempers the PVI somewhat, but its still an R+10 district. Also included is Fort Dix military base, McGuire AFB and Lakehurst Naval Air Station (of Hindenburg fame). Not sure how it affects the politics though as a lot of the people working there are probably registered elsewhere. The district’s congressman is Chris Smith, who is one of the most senior republicans in the house. Originally elected to a democratic district against a crook incumbent, he managed to strengthen his hold on the district by his moderate voting record (he’s pro-life but has RINO tendencies on other issues) and the fact that his district has shifted eastward to more republican terrain. This district would be the most republican iteration of the districts he’s represented. Safe R.
District 52 781709
Racial Statistics: 54.3 Wh, 18.5 Asn, 14.4 Hisp, 10.7 Bl, 2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+7
76.5% VAP; 80.8% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: Middlesex County hasn’t had its own district since the 80s when Bernie Dwyer represented a Middlesex-centered district. This is the first district since the 1990 reapportionment where there is a district mostly in Middlesex. I don’t know much about Middlesex though my guess is that it’s a less densely populated version of Queens – that is, very diverse, large Asian minority and is middle class mostly. The county historically had a large Hungarian population and has always been somewhat dem leaning. Much of the district lies near I-95 (the turnpike) and I would guess much of Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle takes place in this district. The most notable landmark here is Rutgers University and takes in half of the Princeton campus. The Mercer County portion is mostly dem leaning while there are some R areas around Mercerville, Hamilton Square. The Somerset portion also includes the most dem parts of the county across the Raritan from Rutgers. The only republican part of the district, then, is the NW part of Monmouth. No incumbent lives here but someone like State Senator Barbara Buono (remember her?) or one of the other local D officeholders could run here. Likely D.
District 76 (Maroon) Population 643702
Racial Statistics: 74.6 Wh, 12.2 Bl, 6 Hisp, 5.1 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+7
76.7% VAP; 79% White VAP
Incumbent: The 76th district consists of non-Camden Camden County and southern Burlington County. This would have been a Rob Andrews-Jon Runyan matchup, but Runyan is retiring and Andrews resigned in February. The reason why this is a dem leaning seat even without Camden is because the white vote usually goes dem. This area did, however, have republican congressmen until 1974 when James Florio unseated a republican incumbent. Not sure who runs here since Norcross lives in Brady’s district. Likely D.
Pennsylvania
District 58 (Green) Population 597776
Racial Statistics: 94.3 Wh, 1.9 Bl, 1.6 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 1 Hisp, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+12.5
78.7% VAP, 79.4% White VAP
Incumbent: Mike Kelly R-Butler; Keith Rothfus R-Sewickley
Comments: The 57th is based in the North Hills part of Allegheny County which was always the most republican part of the county. For years it was the basis of the pre-1990s 18th district, which went republican in every presidential election from 1952 to 1988 (except for 1964 of course). Butler County, unlike other parts of Western Pennsylvania, was never dem to begin with either. The areas that were remaining dem have begun to converge with the ancestrally republican areas. All in all it makes this district nuclear blast proof for republicans. The only question then would be if Rothfus or Kelly would win the primary.
District 59 (Red) Population 568369
Racial Statistics: 69.6 Wh, 23.3 Bl, 2.9 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 1.8 Hisp, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+15.6
81.9% VAP; 86.1% White VAP
Incumbent: Mike Doyle D-Forest Hills
Comments: To paraphrase Studds Terkel, the 59th has fallen on hard times. The district lost 60,000 residents (9.7% of the population) during the 2000s. However, this is not a recent occurrence. I would guess that the 59th has been losing population in every decade after 1950 and the 1950 population of this seat is close to double the current number. The most obvious explanation for this has been the decline of the steel industry. The 59th is of course a heavily dem district and has gone republican only once or twice since 1928 (1972 for sure, possibly 1956). Unlike other parts of Western Pennsylvania, the decline in the Democratic Party has not been as pronounced and seems to have leveled off. Safe D.
District 60 (Gold) Population 645273
Racial Statistics: 93.6 Wh, 3.3 Bl, 1.2 Oth, 0.9 Hisp, 0.9 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+9.6
80.3% VAP; 81.1% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The 60th is mostly coal country with much of the population in Westmoreland, Fayette and Far Eastern Allegheny County. All of the district, except for Somerset County which is part of the T, is ancestrally democratic. Somerset County, by the way, is the site of the Flight 93 crash. No Incumbent lives here so my guess is that the democrats run one of the local officeholders here. The clock is ticking here for the democrats, so an open seat would be a boon to them so they could run someone and hope to get them entrenched before it becomes too late.
District 66 (Chartreuse) Population 678947
Racial Statistics: 93.3 Wh, 2.4 Bl, 1.6 Hisp, 1.5 Asn, 1.1 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+7.9
80.6% VAP; 80.7% White VAP
Incumbent: Bill Shuster R-Hollidaysburg, Glenn Thompson R-Howard
Comments: This is about half Shuster’s district, the eastern part of the twelfth and the southern part of the fifth. Johnstown (the part in the twelfth) is ancestrally democratic and did go for Obama, at least in 08. Centre County, is where Penn State University is, and went for Obama both times. All in all, this is a district that is considerably less republican than what Shuster is used to representing. In fact under these lines, he would have lost his initial election in May 2001. Its also possible Mark Critz, who lives in Johnstown, would have run against Shuster and maybe come within striking distance (below 55%) but Shuster still would have won. Shuster, like his father did, chairs the transportation committee and is a typical republican for this area – notorious pork-barreler, but conservative on everything else. The CFG types have gone after him for this, but have never succeeded. Shuster would however, face a difficult primary challenge – but not from the right, if Glenn Thompson runs here. Thompson lives here and could run either here or in the 64th. Thompson’s ideology is pretty similar to Shuster so it would be hard to see how a primary would go if he ran here. I would give an advantage to Shuster simply by having represented more of the area.
District 67 (Cornflower Blue) Population 692408
Racial Statistics: 88.3 Wh, 5.1 Hisp, 3.8 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+13.2
77.2% VAP; 79.3% White VAP
Incumbent: Scott Perry R-Carroll Township
Comments: This is the heart of the Cumberland Valley. One can notice it by the way the counties and precincts sort of curve at a 45-90 degree angle. The western areas used to be part of Shuster’s district and are some of the most GOP parts of the state. The rest is the old 19th (current 4th). The only dem area in this district is the city of York. The most notable sight here is Gettysburg which is partially in this district. The incumbent is Scott Perry who is something of a nutter, but as the most republican district in this series, that’s not really a minus for the voters. Safe R.
District 68 (Dark Salmon) Population 639443
Racial Statistics: 81.6 Wh, 8.4 Bl, 5.8 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+6.5
77.4% VAP; 80% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The 68th is anchored in Harrisburg, the state capital. Also includes are the small cities of Lebanon, Pottsville and the more populated parts of Cumberland County. Also included is Hershey, which is where the chocolate of the same name is based and even has an amusement park. Like the Lancaster area, this area has improved for the democrats as this would have been more like R+15 thirty years ago. Tim Holden could maybe run here, but if he doesn’t, this should go to a republican.
District 69 (Olive) Population 731310
Racial Statistics: 91 Wh, 4.4 Hisp, 2.7 Bl, 1 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+5.4
79.8% VAP; 81% White VAP
Incumbent: Lou Barletta R-Hazleton, Matt Cartwright D-Moosic
Comments: This is half of the eleventh (Luzerne County) while the other half is from the tenth. Luzerne is ancestrally democratic, but the rest of the district is pretty republican and since Luzerne isn’t as dem as it once was, it can’t outvote it. Barletta is the type of republican one would expect here – catholic, pro-labor, anti- illegal immigrant labor, pro-life and moderate on everything else. Cartwright lives here too, but he would run in the 27th. I should add on a side note that there was a recent article on Hazleton, where Barletta was mayor; and how there is rampant heroin use. Likely/Safe R.
District 71 (Lime) Population 675539
Racial Statistics: 82.5 Wh, 11.5 Hisp, 3 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+2
76.7% VAP; 79.9% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: The 71st is the Berks County seat – the reincarnated version of the old sixth, before it was dismantled after the 2000 census. Although it was slightly republican nationally (like it is now), it was always represented by democrats – first by George Rhodes (1949-1969), Gus Yatron (1969-1993) and Tim Holden from 93-03. This is the type of district dems need to win to get a majority and they would be foolish not to contest it, especially in an open seat.
District 72 (Dark Slate Blue) Population 581106
Racial Statistics: 82 Wh, 6.4 Bl, 5.7 Asn, 4.1 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+1.9
76.4% VAP; 78% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This would have been Jim Gerlach’s district. But with him retiring, its possible that Pat Meehan runs here, since it’s a better alternative to the more democratic 79th (where he lives). This is the Chester County district and similar to the district Richard Schulze represented from 1975-1993. Meehan no doubt would be safer here, but in a better year like 2016, the democrats would be sure to target him. Tossup/Lean R.
District 73 (Yellow) Population 659350
Racial Statistics: 77.2 Wh, 13.6 Hisp, 4.7 Bl, 2.8 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+2.7
76.4% VAP; 80.1% White VAP
Incumbent: Charlie Dent R-Allentown
Comments: Half of the district is Allentown and Bethlehem which are fairly dem leaning and typical industrial NEPA. The rest is in the exurban and even rural areas of Montgomery and Bucks County, which is light red to swingy. The incumbent, Charlie Dent, is a moderate republican. But the dems have to target him and districts like these if they hope to win back the house. Until the dems can field a good challenger, this is a Lean/Likely R district.
District 75 (Pink) Population 516832
Racial Statistics: 65.6 Wh, 25.4 Bl, 4 Asn, 3.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+15.2
77.3% VAP; 78.8% White VAP
No Incumbent
Comments: This is the least populated district drawn thus far. I don’t know what the explanation is since its not a particularly old district. There are essentially three parts to the district - The first portion is a part of Bucks County which is suburban-to-exurban and swingy. The next portion is eastern Montgomery County, which is suburban and fairly dem leaning (especially in the Abingdon and Jenkintown area). The third part is far northern Philadelphia (Mount Airy) area which is much more densely populated, heavily black and 90+ percent democratic. The Philadelphia portion is what skews the percentage to the left. This was Alyson Schwartz’s district before she (ill fatedly) ran for governor. Not sure who would have replaced her since Leach is a bomb thrower, Margolies is too old (and a paper tiger) and Boyle lives in the 74th. Should be Safe D however.
District 79 (Indigo) Population 530243
Racial Statistics: 77 Wh, 12 Bl, 5.2 Asn, 4 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+8.4
78.7% VAP; 80.6% White VAP
Incumbent: Pat Meehan R-Drexel Hill
Comments: This is sort of a disguised district. It “looks” only D+3, being in northern DelCo (the least dem part of the county) and taking in some of Chester County. However, the devil is in the details. It contains some heavily dem areas of West Philadelphia, and the part of Montgomery County it takes in is the most dem part of the county (Norristown, Merion Station). This would be enough to deter Pat Meehan from running here as he would slide into Gerlach’s seat (the 72nd). This would clear the way for someone like Joe Sestak to run here. I doubt he (or any noncontroversial democrat) would have any problem here.
Ohio
District 54 (Peach Puff) Population 592198
Racial Statistics: 90.5 Wh, 4.5 Bl, 2.4 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+0.8
76.9% VAP; 78.3% White VAP
Incumbent: David Joyce R-Russell Township
Comments: This is the Western Reserve of northeastern Ohio. This is part Rust Belt (Warren), and part Cleveland suburbs (Lake, Geauga and even a small part of Cuyahoga). This is overall a pretty moderate area and prime swing vote country. The district’s congressman, David Joyce, won this open seat in 2012, after nine term congressman Steve LaTourette retired. Joyce, like LaTourette is a RMSP type republican (ACU rating of 40 in 2013). Joyce did have a close race in 2012 and may have actually lost here under these lines (an R+1 seat basically). In a seat like this, Joyce’s future would be predicated on well he entrenches himself.
