Would you trust this man with your government?
As the likelihood of a Donald Trump nomination has become closer and closer to reality, my ambivalence about his candidacy has turned to real concern about the possibilities that he will be the GOP nominee and that the Hillary Clinton campaign doesn’t have the chops necessary to ward off his unending, shape shifting messages.
Then, as a I flipped through several papers, magazines, and talking head shows this weekend, all that centered around the concept that “how could we have missed this?” or “this is making me rethink everything I have ever thought” or some variation of the ostrich with his head in the sand defense, it got me to thinking about the real challenge for why we are faced with the realistic possibility of a Donald Trump presidency and why the likelihood seems to still be such a surprise to so many of the people that are tasked with knowing this stuff and stopping it.
The first challenge is the easiest to define: “Why?”
Why don’t our reporters, pundits, and consultants understand what has led Donald Trump, and for that matter Bernie Sanders, to have real traction and results this cycle? The answer is pretty easy...they lack to “political vocabulary” to define any candidate or issue out of some predetermined box.
So when someone like Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders begins talking about real imbalance, real issues with trade deals, and real pain out in the world, our journalists, pundits, and “leaders” are so far removed from the thinking that is required to see things out of a predefined framing that the idea that there is some other opinion or possible explanation is absurd.
This plays out over and over again:
“Bernie Sanders can’t possibly be popular. ‘He’s a “socialist.’”
“Donald Trump can’t be a legit candidate because he says outrageous things.”
“Jeb Bush will pull the establishment together behind him.”
These all miss the larger idea that every election is a change election and every argument and election at its heart is about economic issues and the person that touches the hot button of someone’s wallet the most effectively will usually be the one that wins that person’s vote.
Just look at the effectiveness that organization like the AFL-CIO, AFSCME, and others had painting Mitt Romney as an out of touch, aloof, entitled job destroyer during the 2012. (Full disclosure: I authored one of the most damning series of attacks called “Truth & Consequences”)
Well, why is our political vocabulary so inept at understanding and dealing with someone like Donald Trump? Here are the 3 big keys that I have figured out from my research:
1. The Donald speaks in non-linear, non-label specific language: The challenge for most pundits and consultants is that they have trained themselves and their worldview to be linear and specific in all manner.
And, when confronted with a candidate that doesn’t act in such a way, they are ill-equipped to handle this, especially in a proactive manner.
Because our chattering classes have become so good at the thinking that if someone is a Democrat they say and do and think this and if they are a Republican they say or think or do this...they miss the fact that real people are much more complicated and that real people are a jumble of contradictory thoughts, ideas, and opinions.
The Donald, instead of speaking like a consultant honed, media driven candidate, actually talks to his audience like a real person.
Instead of focusing on the safe issues for a candidate, Donald Trump will touch on any issue with the kind of feigned authenticity that is the mark of a really good snake oil salesman.
2. Donald Trump doesn’t talk like a politician, he talks like a marketer: One of the big challenges for most of the political class and the consultants is that they want to lock in on a message and a line of attack and then cover the resulting slog like it is a sports game. But in reality, most of this 24 hour news cycle driven crap isn’t newsworthy and most people don’t pay attention to it.
That’s why a regular politician gets so little traction from their “big speech on foreign policy” or their “comprehensive plan for immigration reform” or really any of those other things they are rolling out as big tent poles and message drivers for their campaign.
Why?
Because your average voter or citizen couldn’t care less about this kind of stuff.
They are so fixated on getting through their day and having some relief from a job that doesn’t pay enough, bills that are piling up, and, hopefully, finding a little relief to care about some textured and layered and unlikely to be enacted form of political navel gazing.
That’s why these things don’t cut through.
And, this is why when pundits talk about Donald Trump being “light” on substance, it doesn’t matter.
Donald Trump is speaking in the language of the master marketer.
He is talking about outcomes and not features.
Where as someone else might talk about “a 3 point plan for more jobs.” Donald Trump is talking about “I’m going to be the greatest job producing president God has ever seen.”
The difference in that is huge.
Even if you know its BS, which one are you more likely to buy?
That’s the next reason why our political vocabulary isn’t sufficient to deal with Donald Trump. They are selling features and Donald Trump is all benefits...which strike at the emotion involved in any sale.
3. All politics is economic: It isn’t a surprise to anyone at this point that two big emotions are driving this election as much as any: fear and anger.
And, what is really driving this fear and anger?
Economic uncertainty and economic insecurity.
For most visitors of the Daily Kos, the idea that pundits, journalists, and consultants are out of touch with the economic reality of most average Americans is going to be pretty much a given and not at all a controversial statement, but it bears pointing out that this being out of touch with reality is often what drives lines of reportage and coverage that aren’t at all in touch with what is really important to people’s lives.
This is at heart, the big issue with the Donald Trump campaign, his consistent focus on economic issues and insecurities. It is also the heart of Bernie Sanders’ successes in the Democratic primaries.
Where Donald Trump gives our media and anyone asleep at the wheel in the Democratic establishment the slip and presents a real danger to our country because he might actually win is because he understands and has the messaging dedication and consistency to understand that all elections are economic referendums.
This is what drives the popularity of the “wall.” It might be covered in racism, but it is an economic argument that hits right at the point of pain and uncertainty that too many people deal with.
This list goes on and on: jobs, the wall, our trade deals, negotiations...on and on.
Every issue can be seen in the context of an economic point of pain and fear...and where most politicians feel like people want more than a “one-issue” candidate, when you are broke, can’t feed your family, and don’t know what would happen if you lose your job, the only issue you care about is the economy, no matter what anyone else thinks. That’s the reality of a lot of people, and those are the people fueling the rise of Donald Trump’s candidacy.
This focus on the economic issues that are at play in our country is the third reason our political class has been missing the point about Donald Trump and it is the real reason that I am concerned that the Clinton campaign won’t have the necessary dexterity to adjust and adapt to what is likely to be an intense onslaught of multiple messages and movement from Donald Trump’s campaign in the general election.
