Is MBS trying to hurt Biden?

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Thursday November 11, 2021 · 10:41 AM PST

2021/11/11 · 10:41

Interesting article that suggests that murderous Saudi tyrant MBS is trying to damage the political prospects of Joe Biden, and Democrats in general, by driving up gas prices.

\theintercept.com/…

This doesn’t surprise me. Biden has been critical of MBS, which he deserves. He is a murderer. Having said that, it might be in Biden’s interest to play nice with him for a while. Gas prices are hurting the country and the public is blaming Biden.

Soaring gas prices

jbigss

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Wednesday November 03, 2021 · 3:33 PM PDT

2021/11/03 · 15:33

They jump 30 cents today here in Cincinnati. When will it end?

Biden needs to do something, or we will see more results like we did in Virginia and New Jersey last night.

If that means more drilling, so be it. Adapt to changing circumstances. Bread and butter issues are more important right now than global warming.

Dems need to adapt, or the GOP will win and be in power for a generation.

The Coming Energy Crunch?

jbigss

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Monday October 11, 2021 · 7:55 AM PDT

2021/10/11 · 07:55

Many people are predicting a surge in Energy prices this winter. Oil is now at a 14-year high.

I have been optimistic about the economy improving after Covid subsides, but I am considerably less so now.

We have to recognize that renewable energy has many disadvantages.

oilprice.com/…

I don't necessarily agree with everything this author says, and they appear to be quite conservative. I hope their predictions are not borne out. But it's worth thinking about. We could be making a big mistake.

Politically, this will only help the Republicans who have an easy answer for what is causing high prices and shortages. And their answer would not be entirely wrong.

It may be time for Democrats to moderate on the energy issue. Do we really want to see high prices, and do we really want to see the possibility of Donald Trump returning to power in this country, or one of his many imitators who could very well be worse?

Why did gas prices surge today?

jbigss

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Thursday July 15, 2021 · 3:22 PM PDT

2021/07/15 · 15:22

They were starting to finally go down here in Cincinnati - until today. Now they are at $3.19 in most places. That's higher than July 4th weekend. The highest this year, in fact.

Why? Is this oil companies taking advantage of the fact that millions of Americans got their child tax credit money today?

Problems with mailed stimulus checks?

jbigss

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Tuesday April 06, 2021 · 8:06 AM PDT

2021/04/06 · 08:06

I realize this isn’t a diary, but I wanted to know if anyone here has not yet received their stimulus check yet, for those who are to have it mailed.

I subscribe to the USPS’s Informed Delivery program, which sends scanned pictures of mail that should be arriving to your mailbox that very day. They send an email every morning.

I received an email from them Saturday morning indicating my stimulus was on the way, so I expected it that day. Unfortunately, I have not received it as of yesterday.

Oddly, there was no scanned picture of the envelope this time, just a generic picture. But it said it was from the stimulus bill from the Dept. of Treasury.

Should I be worried? My trust in the mail these days is not high.

California and New York are becoming embarrassments for Democrats

jbigss

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Thursday February 18, 2021 · 6:13 AM PST

2021/02/18 · 06:13

NPR had a story this morning comparing CA’s Covid response to FL. CA did not compare well. They had lockdowns and worse results. Florida’s economy is doing much better. I realize there are many factors involved but this does not make Democratic governance look good.

www.npr.org/...

Same with New York. NY is doing worse with vaccinations than Florida, vaccinating fewer people per capita. Plus, you have the nursing home mess that Cuomo is being accused of covering up.

Only two of the top ten states for vaccinations are blue states.

I write this to see if anyone has any reasonable excuses for the mess in these states. Conservatives are going to town with this.

Trafalgar

jbigss

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Thursday November 05, 2020 · 5:51 AM PST

2020/11/05 · 05:51

As much as I hate to admit it, we need to take them more seriously as a pollster, at least somewhat. They did fairly well overall, better in fact than most others.

They called WI almost exactly. They had Biden +1, and it looks like the final margin will match that.

They also did very well in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina.

They called MN correctly, though they underestimated Biden’s numbers quite a bit — they had him at 3% and he won it by 7.2%.

Their failure was Michigan, which they had Trump +2. And, hopefully, after all the votes are counted, they will have also missed GA, PA, and AZ. Too soon to tell.

What's going on at Real Clear Politics?

jbigss

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Tuesday November 03, 2020 · 6:06 AM PST

2020/11/03 · 06:06

I just checked RCP’s averages. They have Biden up only 1.2 in Pennsylvania! That’s lower than Clintons average.

They had him up 2.5 yesterday. What’s going on? Looks like they did it by dropping 2 good Biden polls from their averages even though they were just released yesterday, Monmouth and Ipsos. Morning Consult, a reputable pollster, was never included at all in their averages.

But of course Trafalgar, released yesterday also, is still there.

This seems extremely dishonest and it doesn’t gel with what they did in previous elections.

I really hope Nate Silver, who has Biden +4.7 in PA, knows what he is doing. This state is extremely important and it worries me.

Why I'm nervous: Pennsylvania

jbigss

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Tuesday October 27, 2020 · 9:59 AM PDT

2020/10/27 · 09:59

Polls seem to be tightening in Pennsylvania. RCP only has Biden up 3.8 pts today, down from yesterday (for some reason, they do not include they new Civiqs poll, which has Biden doing better).

Combine that with the likelihood that the new Supreme Court will invalidate the split decision from last week concerning late mail-in ballots, and it gives me a real sense of dread.

It appears that Biden’s chances of winning the election without PA are possible, but extremely difficult.

If the election comes down to PA, and the results there are called into question, I think it will be a political disaster for this country, increasing already toxic levels of polarization.

GOP registering new voters. Should we be concerned?

jbigss

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Tuesday October 20, 2020 · 12:34 PM PDT

2020/10/20 · 12:34

I was not aware of this, and it surprises me given everything that’s going on in the country. Is it something to worry about?

We still have an advantage but it is dwindling.

www.msn.com/...

What if Trafalgar is right again?

jbigss

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Friday September 04, 2020 · 8:11 AM PDT

2020/09/04 · 08:11

They got the rust belt states correct in 2016. Currently. they give Trump small leads in all of them, with a tie in Minnesota. He leads in Arizona too and Florida too.

Yes, their “shy Trump voter” methodology seems crazy and dishonest, but it worked in 2016.

If they are calling this correctly, we have a repeat of 2016. Is there any reason why we should think they are wrong this time?

Thoughts about the new Emerson Poll

jbigss

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Monday August 31, 2020 · 4:02 PM PDT

2020/08/31 · 16:02

A few things worry me about this poll, which has Biden ahead by just 2 points (was 4 points in their last poll).

The poll was all taken entirely after the RNC AND after the Portland incident Saturday. Impossible to say which of these had the most affect. It could be a combination of the two. Nonetheless, I lean in the direction that the unrest is hurting us, as I’ve stated before.

Trump’s approval being in narrow positive territory is worrisome as well.

I’m trying to stay positive so I’ll point out a few things that MAY give the poll some context:

1) Biden is at 51%

2) I could be wrong, but it looks like Emerson is one of only just three pollsters that have EVER given Trump a lead against Biden. They actually had Trump +4 last February. The other two are Rasmussen and USA Today.

If Rasmussen shows a big jump in Trump’s approval tomorrow (it was 47% today), and a Trump lead Wednesday, then I’ll probably really be freaking out. That could easily be a sign that Portland helped Trump.

Eagerly awaiting new polls that will, God willing, show better results for Biden.

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