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jfdunphy
jfdunphy
Silence on the Khans(A.Q., that is)
jfdunphy
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Thursday May 25, 2006
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11:30 AM PDT
2006/05/25
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11:30
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One of the apparant diplomatic reverses that the newspapers and mass media are not following up is that of the curious case of A.Q. Khan. The reputed father of the nuclear program for Pakistan, and thus of the Islamic nuclear bomb, at last report was merely under house arrest.
According to newspaper clippings, the original deal was that Pakistan would let the US hunt through its territory for Osama bin Laden (still not captured by the US) IN EXCHANGE FOR the U.S. letting A.Q. Khan being kept merely under house arrest. Press reports assert that A.Q. Khan was the alleged mastermind behind an international black market in nuclear weapons technology--and that some of it was destined for Libyia (since deactivated), North Korea, Iran and in some mentions Saudi Arabia. For a fuller treatment, see globalsecurity.org) (Continued)
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Adjusting the Unemployment rate
jfdunphy
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Saturday May 20, 2006
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1:12 PM PDT
2006/05/20
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13:12
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If you're one of those people who look at the official unemployment rate, and wonder where in the world the bean-counters come up with a figure that seems low, listen up! There's a nice little explanation on how the unemployment rate is figured, on the website EconEdLink, lesson EM219.
Basically, it takes the number of unemployed, and divides it by the sum of the unemployed and the employed. Straighforward enough, until you see where the omissions can crop up.
Officially, there are about 7.1 million unemployed, and 143.7 million working. Apply the formula, and you get unemployment of 4.47 percent (continued).
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Nuclear tensions--a look back at India
jfdunphy
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Friday May 19, 2006
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8:42 AM PDT
2006/05/19
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08:42
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As we look for ways to follow the current tensions between Iran and the US over nuclear arms issues, it is helpful to look at what has happened in the past. We continue from the book India's Nuclear Bomb, by George Perkovich (Univ. of Calif. Press, Berkeley, 1999). In this section, we see India, disposed to not accelerate nuclear programs, get pressured by developments in Pakistan.
One of India's options is to order a first-strike on Pakistan's nuclear facilities. Weighing the options, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi doesn't want to do that. One reason: if Pakistan believes that a first strike is imminent from India, Pakistan may order a first strike of its own. Thus India would have to beef up security at its own nuclear sites, in self-defense (cont'd).
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Poor coverage of Iran situation
jfdunphy
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Wednesday May 17, 2006
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8:19 AM PDT
2006/05/17
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08:19
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The lack of solid analysis by the traditional media is a definite hinderance to understanding how immediate, or not immediate, the "crisis" there is.
Today's incremental development is that the EU has made an offer of nuclear technology to Iran, with the major string attached that it would use the technology only for peaceful purposes.
As we discussed yesterday in examining the slow ramping up of India to the "nuclear club," these things not only take time, but they develop a dynamic of their own that seems to favor a push for a very expensive nuclear capability. (Cont'd)
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Clear-headed analysis needed on Iran nukes
jfdunphy
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Tuesday May 16, 2006
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8:19 AM PDT
2006/05/16
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08:19
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The traditional media is not doing a good job of providing context to the Iran situation. Drumbeats of concern from the administration, echoed through the press, dominate the news headlines.
So one must go to books for a clearer picture of the process. So I recommend the book "India's Nuclear Bomb," by George Perkovich (Univ. of California Press, Berkeley, 1999) for an examination of what it takes for a country to join the nuclear club.
India took many years to go nuclear. Even with the technological capability, the book shows that politics and science and diplomacy play a big role. Some of those same forces apply in the Iran situation (cont'd).
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Right to self-defense is under assault
jfdunphy
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Friday May 12, 2006
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8:21 AM PDT
2006/05/12
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08:21
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In the so-called war on terror, it is becoming increasingly apparant that that one of the traditional defenses to a just war, the right to self-defense, is being increasingly marginalized. Self-Defense is seen as a basic human right. Courts are supposed to uphold it, in cases of individual conflict (breaking and entering, robbery, assault, etc).
Yet the adoption of first-strike, torture memos, interrogation techniques used at Gitmo and Abu Ghraib, School of the Americas and successor training, adoption of "El Salvador" solution use of death squads as official policy, mass searches and seizures, penning of protestors at National political conventions, and abandoning the defenseless abroad (Darfur) and at home (New Orleans) (cont'd)
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Estimating the risks of nuclear war with Iran
jfdunphy
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Thursday May 11, 2006
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8:16 AM PDT
2006/05/11
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08:16
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In standard management analysis of a decision, management tries to make an intelligent estimates of the risks and rewards of any particular decision. So today we take an elementary look at decision-tree analysis of the risks of war with Iran, using open-source literature, to try to get a handle on a problem that Sy Hersh's reporting indicates is very urgent.
We are still in the book Computers in Battle, will they work, edited by David Belkin et al, 1987. Today's installment focuses on a couple of insights from the chapter by Alan Borning, p. 101 ff, on "Computer Systems Reliability and Nuclear War." Check this out.
Borning notes that for all practical purposes both the US system and the Russian system must be viewed as one system, simply because the reaction times are so short, and that the risk of a malfunction rises as unintended mistakes enter either system. (cont'd)
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Will "Shock and Awe" flop in Iran also?
jfdunphy
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Wednesday May 10, 2006
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1:08 PM PDT
2006/05/10
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13:08
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The "shock and awe" strategy in Iraq was supposed to deliver victory by using high-tech weapons, blitzkreig tactics, and less use of manpower. Three years and some later, the initiative appears to have stalled considerably, violating one of the central tenets of warfare--maintaining the initiative.
As worry grows that a similar strategy is about to be employed in Iran, only with nuclear bunker-busters this time, it's worth taking a look at some of the background of this aggressive strategy.
Thus it is recommended to read the book "Computers in Battle, will they work?" edited by David Bellin and Gary Chapman, Harcourt Brace Javonovich, Boston, 1987.
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Worth re-reading on military dissent
jfdunphy
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Thursday May 04, 2006
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9:19 PM PDT
2006/05/04
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21:19
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The recent statements by eight retired military generals against an impending invasion or conflict with Iran has revived interest in the subject of free speech in the military. On that point, there is an excellent book worth reading a few chapters from, namely "How The Government Breaks The Law," by Jethro K. Lieberman (Stein and Day, New York, 1973). The book itself is a lively post-mortem of the myriad ways the federal and state governments routinely and systemmatically break the law. But the most relevant chapters here are on the military and free speech issue.
The chapter on military dissidents (p. 93 ff) of course highlights dissent in the Vietnam Era, focusing on how the Navy mis-handled an effort by junior officers called the Concerned Officers Movement (COM) to peacefully protest the official policies concerning "Indo-China." The basic thrust is that the officers planned to meet privately in officer's private residences, on their own time, (cont'd)
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Wiretapping: the electronic Anaconda
jfdunphy
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Wednesday April 19, 2006
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10:23 PM PDT
2006/04/19
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22:23
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No one knows the full extent of the current domestic wiretapping or electronic surveillance efforts, but we know the laws are being pushed as far as possible to extend their already prodigous reach. But we also know that human nature hasn't kept the same furious pace as the electronic world, so some repetitive patterns are quite likely.
Let's just consider the pattern exercised under J.Edgar Hoover. In the excellent book, The FBI and Martin Luther King, Jr., by David J. Garrow (W.W. Norton, New York, 1981), a wiretap that began on some reasonable suspicion of attempts by the Communist Party to infiltrate the civil rights movement, quickly deterioriated. The initial probe came up dry; but Hoover refused to believe his analysts.
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Flag-draped coffin pictures forced into open
jfdunphy
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Thursday April 28, 2005
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8:05 PM PDT
2005/04/28
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20:05
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People were wondering what was the particular rush behind a prime-time "news conference" for the Bush admin, besides the extreme tanking in the polls in the wake of the Social Security ennui, and multiple competing Republican scandals.
One possible, and obvious, explanation: This AP story, which went over the AP site by AP writer John J. Lumpkin at 5:30 PM EDT, from Washington, DC.
To wit, a Delaware professor has won a Freedom of Information action against the Pentagon. This forces the release of HUNDREDS of photos of flag-draped coffins of US service men and women. Photos ran on the AP site, and also KRON4.com, for the San Francisco television station. Where incidentally, Laura Bush was said to be visiting, after her recent stop in Mexico for the high-society wedding of the Corona beer fortune heiress.
This news story is not likely to be good news for Tony Blair, facing a re-election bid in London May 5.
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