Natural (methane) gas flares in the North Dakota sunset
In a new study published Monday in Frontiers in Science , researchers found emissions of methane into the atmosphere have skyrocketed since 2006, with an "abrupt and rapid increase" in the early 2020s.
The World Meteorological Organization’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin noted in its 2022 report two years ago that increases in methane levels in 2020 and 2021 were the largest since systematic record keeping began in 1983. “Methane concentrations are not just rising, they’re rising faster than ever,” said Rob Jackson, a professor of Earth systems science at Stanford University.
Methane sources include cow burps, rice production, oil and gas drilling and processing, landfills, as well as decomposing organic material in wetlands and melting Arctic permafrost.
Although carbon dioxide gets most of the attention when it comes to global warming, methane is no slouch at contributing to the climate crisis. It has 84-86 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide during the first 20 years after being emitted, scientists say. Unlike CO2, which can remain in the atmosphere for centuries, methane fades out in dozen or so years. However, accumulated methane emissions since 1850 up to 2019 have caused about two-thirds as much global heating as carbon dioxide, the researchers say, noting that if all methane emissions were stopped tomorrow, 90% of accumulated methane would have left the atmosphere by 2050, greatly reducing the global heating that the gas causes.
Cattle feedlots like this one contribute ample amounts of methane to the atmosphere.
So far in the 2020s, about 30 million tons more methane emissions have been released each year compared with the previous decade. The growth rate since 2020 has "far exceeded" forecasts. Lead study author and Duke University climate scientist Drew Shindell told The Guardian: "The growth rate of methane is accelerating, which is worrisome, It was quite flat until around 20 years ago, and just in the last few years we've had this huge dump of methane. It's made the job of tackling anthropogenic warming all the more challenging."
Said Shindell, “Methane is the strongest lever we can quickly pull to reduce warming between now and 2050. There’s just such a rapid response to cutting it. We’ve already seen the planet warm so much that if we are to avoid worse impacts we have to reduce methane. Reducing CO2 will protect our grandchildren—reducing methane will protect us now.”
The authors note that reversing the growth of methane emissions will require various approaches. Olivia Rosane at Common Dreams writes:
To that end, the study authors developed an online tool that policymakers and other interested parties can use to gauge the effectiveness and economic benefits of different technologies and strategies.
"The benefits of methane mitigation nearly always outweigh the net costs," Shindell said in a statement.
Each ton of methane emitted in 2020 caused between $470 and $1,700 in damages, without considering methane's contribution to deadly air pollution. If that is taken into account, the true cost per ton could be $7,000 or more.
Last October, a report from the International Energy Agency was far from the first to point out the need to cut methane emissions. As a result of ever-more grim climate reports, three years ago at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, more than 100 nations signed a pledge to cut their 2020-level methane emissions 30% by 2030. But so far, those emissions are still rising.
“More than 75% of methane emissions from oil and gas operations and half of emissions from coal today can be abated with existing technology, often at low cost,” the IEA stated in the report, asserting that the cuts could mean, among other things, avoiding 1 million premature deaths between now and 2050.
One essential component of this abatement is making “[d]ecisive, far-reaching efforts to cut methane emissions from fossil fuel production” without delay, according to the report. Reducing fossil fuel demand would cut methane emissions, the IEA authors acknowledge, but this won’t be deep enough fast enough to meet the aspirational 1.5°C (2.7°F) climate goal, a target that a growing number of scientists already say is out of reach. Venting and flaring needs to be stopped, leaks at wellheads and pipelines must be fixed. That might reduce global temperature rise by 2050 as much as 0.1°C (0.18°F). This might not seem like much, but it would achieve more emissions reductions than switching off every car and truck in the world, according to the researchers.
In 2021 the Global Methane Pledge was announced. The pledge commits signatories to collectively cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. While 155 countries have made the pledge, only 13% of emissions are covered by current policies in those nations, says the study. And just 2% of global climate finance is directed at cutting methane emissions.
Reversing the growth in these emission will require that countries with large fossil fuel industries get a handle on production. New regulations, incentives, and fees for methane emissions would go far on this score. However, the industry itself is intent on continuing its decades-long opposition to those approaches since they are dedicated to making a profit on every last molecule of oil and gas they can extract. As for agriculture, reducing the demand for beef and dairy products will require people to alter their diets in ways that many are certain to reject.
Just like the upcoming election, however, there is only one reasonable choice if there is to be any hope of mitigating, ameliorating, and perhaps preventing some of the worst climate impacts.
Tick, tick, tick.
