I wrote this after the OBL capture. But I posted it and it didn't get much attention.
American University Professor Allan Lichtman created the 13 Keys to the Presidency. The system predicts who will win the White House popular vote in the next election. It has been right going back to 1860, although it failed in 2000, when Gore lost the electoral college to George W. Bush. In order for the incumbent part to win it needs eight out of the thirteen.
The key point: At this point, as 2012 looms, Obama has nine of the thirteen. Based on this system he is a favorite for re-election as of June 2011.
UPDATE: Lichtman addresses where Obama stands as of 27 May 2011. He states:
With Key 11 now secure for the party in power, it has only three keys likely turned against it for 2012, three short of the fatal six negative keys. Thus, President Obama could endure additional setbacks and still win re-election, regardless of whom the Republicans nominate next year. This tally also conservatively counts the incumbent charisma Key against Obama, a very close call.
A key-by-key explanation follows beneath the fold.
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