In this post I will propose a "US vs South Korea" Coronavirus counterfactual narrative to quantify the magnitude of Trump's failures on the Covid19 pandemic. This narrative leads to the Trump Coronavirus Death Count, which stands at 13,462 unnecessary US deaths as of April 9 (UT).
First, some relevant historical background. Just two incumbent postwar US Presidents have declined to pursue reelection despite being eligible. In 1952, Harry Truman withdrew from the Democratic Presidential nomination after losing the March 11 New Hampshire primary. And on March 31, 1968, LBJ declared on national television that he would neither pursue nor accept the Democratic nomination.
In both cases, these decisions were driven by strong and growing public sentiment against the “bad wars,” respectively, of Korea and Vietnam. To put hard numbers on these Presidential failures: total US Korean War dead ultimately reached ~36,000, while total US Vietnam War dead as of March 1968 was ~25,000 (and ultimately reached ~55,000). Meanwhile, reported Coronavirus fatalities in the US to date are 14,736 (likely underestimated). Note: Nation-specific Coronavirus fatalities will be taken from the Worldometer website for today, April 9 UT.
The South Korea Coronavirus Counterfactual springs from the desire to put a number on Trump Administration culpability for these deaths, There are several reasons to define such a number in a way that is transparent, justified, and easy to calculate from public data,
First, while it is easy enough to say “Trump did a bad job,” it is just as easy to say “No he didn’t.” Making a reasoned case for competence or incompetence requires specifying a counterfactual scenario: an explicit answer to the question “Where would we be otherwise?”
Trump and Republicans have chosen their counterfactual: Simulations anticipating 2 million Covid19 US deaths or more for an epidemic not countered by widespread social distancing measures. Thanks to actions of local officials, of course, such measures are now widespread. And as a result of those social distancing measures, and the concomitant massive hit to our economy, simulations now suggest total fatalities of 100,000 or less.
In fact, just today Trump was feeling confident enough to adopt 100,000 as his new benchmark:
Anyone wishing to make a contrary argument will have to point to an alternative maximum number of fatalities, along with ready arguments for its reasonability. Ideally, the process of deriving the new target should be simple, transparent, and made with public data.
Second, for political reasons it will be useful to adopt a single standard counterfactual narrative. This simplifies messaging and provides the media with a ready framing for any story on US Coronavirus response.
Third, the more straightforward and transparent the counterfactual narrative, the greater its chances for ready propagation and amplification through social media.
Fourth, again for reasons of transparency and ease of communication, it makes sense to keep the focus on the total number of domestic Covid19 fatalities, even though this metric is imperfect and understates the total impact of the pandemic.
Hence the South Korea Coronavirus Counterfactual:
US response to the pandemic should be judged against S. Korea, which reported its first domestic case the same day as the US, January 19, and has since effectively contained it, suffering a total of 200 Covid19 deaths.
South Korea provides a fair comparison to the US because it is an economically developed democracy with an urbanized population, and because it reported its first domestic Covid19 infection on the same day as the US, January 19.
South Korea's population of 51.7 million is 1/6.37 that of the US. Scaling fatalities by population (adopting a benchmark of total population mortality) means that the 200 South Korea Covid19 deaths equate to 1274 US Covid19 deaths (total).
Now, obviously South Korea has carried out a highly effective response to the Covid19 pandemic. But why would this make the comparison unfair? Why shouldn't we hold high expectations for our political leaders? What are they elected for, anyway? Or, to make the contrary case: South Korea has a lower per capita GDP (69% of US) and closer commercial and travel ties to China, where the Coronavirus originated. Hence, if anything, we expect that it faced a steeper challenge than the US in confronting the present pandemic.
The South Korea Coronavirus Counterfactual – judging the US response against South Korea’s – is that the US could fairly have been expected to suffer 1274 Covid19 deaths, even in a scenario where it mounted a strong and immediate response to the #pandemic, as South Korea did.
This brings us to the Trump Coronavirus Death Count:
The Trump Coronavirus Death Count is the excess number of US #Covid19 deaths beyond what would be expected from a strong response like South Korea's. Since the US has suffered 14,736 deaths so far, the Trump Coronavirus Death Count for April 9 (UT) is: 13,462 unnecessary deaths.
Now that South Korea has effectively contained the epidemic, those who wish to adopt a simpler calculation can simply subtract 1274 (or 1300) from the total US #Covid19 deaths to get their updated Trump Coronavirus Death Count over the days and weeks to come.
