A week ago, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by 10 points in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. I asked the readers at fivethirtyeight.com whether they expected today's poll -- it's April 6th -- to show a lead of greater than 10 points for Obama, or fewer.
I was sort of trying to goad people into taking the over. After all, we're all used to hearing about the importance of "momentum" and trendlines. Obama had gone, over the span of about 10 days, from being 7 points behind, to roughly tied, to 4 points ahead, to 10 points ahead. Wasn't it logical that he'd be some number larger than 10 points ahead after another week's worth of "momentum"? Wasn't the headline that Obama was pulling away with the race?
But most people did not take the bait, and said they expected Obama to be fewer than 10 points ahead. Which, as it turns out, was the right answer. In today's Gallup Tracker, Obama is 3 points ahead of Hillary Clinton: