Now that the voting has begun there is much debate and a good deal of angst in comparing the rates at which Republicans are showing in the nomination process vs. the Democratic turnout. By traditional metrics of political reckoning it suggests the Democrats have a problem, but this year is so weird that little of the conventional wisdom is looking particularly wise. Is there any precedent for a Trump?
The new politics?
The entry of Trump has seriously disrupted the process on the Republican side. He’s not a politician by any traditional measure. He’s a showman. A promoter. A hustler. And he’s making a shambles of the usual politics within the Republican party because they have, so far, been unable to compete against what he’s doing. He’s not offering experience, wisdom or superior policy. He’s doing celebrity, and he’s better at it than they are.
The Donald’s market was limited to New York until 2004 when he went national with The Apprentice. The program peaked with the first season finale viewership of 28.1 million and decayed from there. In response to that fade Trump added Celebrity Apprentice in 2008 which also peaked in the first year finale and went downhill. ( I doubt he minded getting booted from the show )
Trump decided he needed a new gig. What to do? Where could he take the act? He found the opportunity to bring his reality programming shtick to a whole new level in the vacuum created by the dearth of quality GOP candidates. Since he can out BS all the Republican BSers, into the ring went his hat.
So here we sit watching ...drum roll...
The Newest, Most Exciting Reality Television Program of the Season: The GOP Race for the Nomination!
It’s got action. It’s got insults. It’s got shaming, brawls and chair throwing, winners and losers, blood on the floor. It’s demolition derby, bigotry, racism, war mongering and hyper-patriotism, all wrapped into one action packed show. It gives voice to the ugliness that many feel and will cheer if it’s said out loud on the big stage. It’s dramatic and ridiculous and empowering for those the party has been crapping on ... and it’s effective. Quite a bit more effective than the Democrats’ counter programming.
08/06/2015 -- GOP Debate #1 FOXNC -- 24,000,000
10/13/2015 -- DNC Debate #1 CNN -- 15,800,000
Superbowl, The Bachelorette, or political debate?
The audiences has faded from the season premier debate as is typical with Trump productions, so now comes the hook that keeps people from switching the channel? Just like any successful reality television show, you start out with a huge field of candidates and add audience participation! Republicans voters, with each primary or caucus, get to vote someone off the island! It’s fun, and all the Republicans get to play. This is not same old same old. With Trump in the director’s seat it’s loud and outrageous trash tv. It’s testosterone and posturing. It’s WWE. With the overly elaborate debate stages, the insufferable “game of the week” music and breathless narration it’s a Monday Night Football and American Idol mashup. It’s may be heavy on glitz and light on substance, but it’s turning out the numbers. Trump knows how to do this new age of media, meta, and social networking thing better than most, and as a professional grifter he knows the public’s bottomless thirst for shallow but thrilling entertainment. It doesn’t have to make sense. It doesn’t have to be rational or true. In fact, the Republicans have discovered that trying to point out the inconsistencies, untruths and the lack of a single “how” for all his promises is like pointing out the scientific impossibles in the latest Star Wars movie. His audience doesn’t want to hear it. It has nothing to do with why they’re flocking to the stadiums. Facts and reason are buzz killers.
In addition to driving Republican enthusiasm this year, here’s a little bit of info that suggests this program has cross-cultural appeal:
Pew's survey found that Republicans are watching the debates in higher percentages than Democrats or independents, and that GOP viewers are less interested in seeing candidates from the other party.
Among people who have watched multiple debates, 41 percent of Republicans said they have only seen GOP debates, while 8 percent of the Democrats said they have only watched the Democrats.
Maybe Democrats watch because they are more comprehensive consumers of politics. Maybe that’s it. Or, perhaps there’s also a bit of guilty pleasure, a fun watch: people tuning in hoping to see the destruction of the Republican party on prime time television! For whatever reason, Trump demonstrated he can draw an audience regardless of party affiliation. The Republicans are already into voting yea or nay for the gladiators in the arena and that’s pretty motivating, even for those who might not ordinarily participate in primaries.
The Democrats counter programming however, is a more run-of-the-mill traditional politics, a bit more Frontline teed up against the Republicans’ Roman circus. Now, Frontline enjoys a decent audience mind you, averaging 4.6 million viewers. Not shabby, but it doesn’t enjoy the peak audience of that network’s version of reality television programming: Antiques Road Show. That’s not serious issues-of-the-day stuff. It’s entertainment. The Democratic debates and primaries may be very, very important to those who have thrown in with one candidate, but it ain’t entertainment to anyone else. It’s not impossible that many Democratic voters do not see a reason to get all lathered up over which of candidate gets to face Republican obstructionism for the next four years. If that’s the case the less than record breaking primary turnout does not have to mean the turnout for the general will disappoint.
Voter participation in elections continues to be meh, party membership is flat or declining, record numbers of independents are viewing both parties with contempt, the approval rating for congress is somewhat lower than diarrhea, and the gridlock of the last six years has persuaded a very large block of voters that politics as usual is all nonsense anyway. Against that backdrop the Democrats are selling just another political race as far as many are concerned . People have seen that movie a few times now. The Republicans on the other hand, are selling something “inspired by” ( as they say in the movie business ) a political race, but with a whole lot more explosions and never-before-tried craziness. It’s more exciting, entertaining, and engaging. And since they started with a horde of candidates, they are already deep into winners ( YAY! ) and losers ( BOO! ). The Democrats are discussing foreign affairs, tax policy, and all that really important stuff which, at his point in the process, makes it hard for non-partisan viewers to keep their eyes open after a long day of doing life. And they’re so damned civil with each other! Hardly the chance of a harsh word, much less someone throwing a punch.
Trump’s wins in NH and SC have many proclaiming a winner, citing the precedent ‘no Republican who's won both both states has ever lost the nomination.’ That probably means nothing:
The GOP didn’t hold a presidential primary in South Carolina until 1980. In 1984 and 2004, with Republican presidents in office and seeking re-election, both states were uncontested. They were won by the sitting vice president in 1988 and by the incumbent president in 1992. In 1996, 2000, and 2012, the candidate who prevailed in New Hampshire didn’t win South Carolina. So in the last 35 years, there’s been only one open nomination contest in which the same Republican won both states. That was 2008.
Back to the turnout differential. If Trump is not the nominee do his viewers stay with the program after they’ve killed of the most popular character? Given his supporters are the most anti-party bunch on the Republican side, one would think there would be some attrition. Maybe the differential dissolves. If he is the candidate and next November we see the season finale of his new gig, the example of the debate viewership suggests Trump just might be as effective at motivating Democratic participation as he is in turning out Republicans. He is, after all, the character 57% of the country loves to hate.
So far participation in this bizarre new politics has been restricted to the Republican side, but in the general election everybody gets a chance to shout, “YOU’RE FIRED.”
Please make it all go awayyyy
