Could there be a "Silver Wave" for Harris/Walz?

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Monday September 02, 2024 · 8:13 AM PDT

2024/09/02 · 08:13

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 07: Demonstrators, including many senior citizens, protest against cuts to federal safety net programs, including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid on November 7, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. About 40 of the demonstrators were arrested, cited, and released after they blocked a downtown intersection and refused police orders to move. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Bill McKibben raises this question, and goes beyond the obvious concern that those of us who are seniors (I am 78) have for Social Security and Medicare. In this Rolling Stone piece he points out some interesting factoids from recent polling data, as you can see in this paragraph:

Consider, for instance, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll last week that found the biggest lead yet for Kamala Harris — a seven point national edge that came largely from her 16-point lead among people over the age of 65. On Thursday, a Suffolk University poll for USA Today found Harris leading Trump 53-42 among voters over 60 — her largest vote share of any demographic. And it’s the same in many of the swing states: A New York Times/Siena College poll showed her with a modest lead among older voters in Arizona — and there are a lot of older voters in Arizona. In North Carolina, another swing state crowded with retirees, she’s up by 10 points among older voters. In Maine, statistically the oldest state in the union, Harris led by 20 points among older voters. In Vermont, the second-oldest state, 61 percent of older voters thought Trump’s mental and physical health were “very poor,” higher than any other group. (Which is worth thinking about — if anyone’s an expert on gauging decline, it’s those of us who see it around us regularly, and perhaps sense it in ourselves).

teacherken

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Wednesday August 14, 2024 · 10:12 AM PDT

2024/08/14 · 10:12

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - AUGUST 9: Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz laugh after taking a selfie in front of a sign that reads "Kamala and The Coach" during stop at a campaign office on August 9, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. Kamala Harris and her newly selected running mate Tim Walz are campaigning across the country this week. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Might I suggest you go to this link

David Brody "tweet"

Read the whole thing and look at the video

These guys are NOT playing around

here’s their website

My wife thinks I am out of my mind

teacherken

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Tuesday August 13, 2024 · 2:23 PM PDT

2024/08/13 · 14:23

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 6: Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz walk out on stage together during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Harris ended weeks of speculation about who her running mate would be, selecting the 60 year old midwestern governor over other candidates. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

because I do not think this election will be close.

So let me lay out some of what I have shared with her, which is why she thinks as she does.

Biden beat Trump by over 7 million votes. At this point I think the only question on popular vote margin is how much North of 10 million votes the margin will be. Here I note that the point margin nationally in one recent national poll would, given the turnout in 2020, translate to a 9.3 million vote margin. And I think the turnout will be greater, Trump’s total will drop …..

It requires 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency without it going to the House. For a variety of reasons, I think the floor for Harris-Walz is circa 320 electoral votes — all the states he won last time plus NC plus the 2nd electoral district in ME. So even were he to lose GA because of voter suppression, that is a loss of only 16, meaning still North of 300 EVs.

I note AZ will have a voter initiative on abortion, and Ruben Gallego should beat Lake by a comfortable margin.

In NC the Republican candidates for Governor and State Superintendent will be drags on the entire ticket.

In TX Abbott’s push for charters is alienating rural voters. If Dems do the field work to get people registered and to the polls, there is the real possibility of flipping that state, and at least a real possibility of defeating Cruz in the Senate.

The real wild card is Ohio — and I think both the popularity of Sherrod Brown and the fact that Vance, who is from OH, is upside down on approval rating in his own state, really changes the landscape.

And then there is Florida. Project 2025 and its threats to Social Security and Medicare change the landscape.

Please note — I am not saying Dems WILL win FL, TX, or OH. I do think they will hold the Blue Wall states (MI PA WI) and NV and AZ — the only doubt would be GA.

I do not think the polling is necessarily yet reflecting how different this race is. I think abortion is still a huge issue. I think there are other issues that are not fully reflected YET in the polling. I think this race is very different, so much that neither the models used by pollsters or the frames used by the punditocracy have yet caught up.

As long as there is no MAJOR disruption of the convention I do not see things that can change the current impetus, I see Trump somewhat flailing. making comments that will hurt both his campaign and Republicans down ballot. And Harris and Walz have so far been masterful.

The one question is how the media will react. They don’t want a blowout, because it costs them money. But I do not think traditional media has that much of an influence any more, and certainly not with young folk.

So my wife thinks I am nuts. Do you agree with her?

I think both TX and FL could be in play, although not in that order. And I think OH is starting to come into play.

thoughts on where the US is now

teacherken

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Saturday July 27, 2024 · 5:46 AM PDT

2024/07/27 · 05:46

Vice President Kamala Harris waves as she boards Air Force Two following a campaign event, in Milwaukee, Wis., Tuesday, July 23, 2024. (Kevin Mohatt/Pool via AP)

not yet one week since Biden withdrew from the race, then announced his endorsement of Harris.

I listen to people saying it will be a close race. I begin to think that is wrong, perhaps very wrong.

Some commentators are relying very heavily on the top line in polling data. But polls are often lagging indicators. Some of those polls are of registered voters, and others are of “likely” voters. Neither include in their universe those who are now motivated to register to vote and hence exclued, and “likely” would not include people who did not vote in the past two general elections. Even with the increased turnout as a result of Dobbs — and please look not only at the results of things like referenda on abortion in “red” states like KS and OH, but also at Democratic performance across the board in special elections, even when still losing heavily “red” constituencies but by much smaller margins that in 20202 or 2024 — most models for polling still do not take into account what we see happening. So perhaps it is worthwhile noting some data that is outside of polling but which may be more indicative of what is happening.

teacherken

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Monday July 15, 2024 · 6:18 AM PDT

2024/07/15 · 06:18

Those who have read my posts over the past 2+ decades since joined DK know that I am by choice, and after a long period of exploring and wandering through multiple religious and spiritual traditions, a member of the Religious Society of Friends, a Quaker, by choice, or as we say,nby convincement, And yet there are things to which my response is not always one of total non-violence. That is to say that there are circumstances where I will use force or violence, and others where I can accept its use by others. As one who taught adolescents for almost 3 decades, the example I most often use is that I am prepared if necessary to kill to protect the students entrusted to my care, even if they may be 300 pound all-Met football players.

In light of what happened in Butler PA on Saturday, and in the greater context of both rhetoric and actions in our larger current political environment, I want to offer a reflection on force and at least the potential for what is violence from a personal perspective.

I do not propose what I offer as anything but my personal reflections. I offer them in the hope that others might engage and share their perspectives, so that perhaps together we may come to a deeper understanding of what we can do to avoid what might otherwise be a series of violent catastrophes in our civic and political life.

teacherken

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Sunday July 07, 2024 · 5:24 AM PDT

2024/07/07 · 05:24

The view is from our patio at The Quadrangle, the Continuing Care Retirement Community that is our new home. I sit outside with a cool breeze blowing to write this post, as myu wife sleeps inside and the three cats amuse themselves.

We took legal possession of our apartment in mid-May, and I began to move things in my care 142 miles from our house in Arlington VA in which we had lived since 1984, either to the apartment or to one of now two storage units we need for the overflow in possessions (primarily books)_ until we can fully downsize. The movers came on June 25, but we were not fully ready for them. They loaded what they could and we continued to downsize, pack, and move things north in my car. They delivered our things on the 27th and we began to unpack and organize, and continue to downsize and give things away. We had almost 100 large bags of trash removed from the house. The apartment is still too cluttered, but it is becoming more livable. We have gotten to know a few of the other residents, know of others (three former professors at nearby Haverford College with whom I overlapped, one now 102 years old and still going for his morning walks). My wife has her firt appointment with her enew oncologist, we have established a relationship with a local pharmacy that delivers for free, we have a vet appointment for our oldest cat (now 15 with some issues), and next week we will get PA drivers’ licenses and see about registering our cars (a bit complicated). We will have paperwork to do,We are starting to adjust to our new life, where my wife will focus on her own research and writing. And me? It is possible that I will continue to teach, either part-time or full-time, in an independent school. We have some connections that can help in that regard.

But I also expect to again be more active here, even as I will not attend this year’s relatively nearby Netroots Nation (because we still have so much to do to settle in). So let me begin that process by reflecting on some of the recent events that concern at least most of the denizens of this site.

teacherken

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Saturday February 24, 2024 · 3:29 PM PST

2024/02/24 · 15:29

This is how you enter where we are going

Last September, in a piece titled Where We Expect To Retire, I informed folks that we were planning to move to Kendal Crosslands Communities, the Crosslands campus, in the early summer. This was built around a number of issues, including my wife wanting to retire by then. Since then a number of things have happened, and relevant to this issue was we did things a bit out of order. Most folks who are moving to a CCRC or LifeCare community do not put their houses on the market until they have commitment and date for when they will move into the community — it usually possible to get a bridge loan and little or no interest to cover most of the cost of the (substantial) entrance fee. But we knew when we wanted to move, there was a great deal of demand for houses in Arlington VA(because of Amazon II and Raytheon having come in) with little inventory and we were advised we might get a good deal putting the house on the market early. We spoke and met with several realtors, and picked a husband and wife in early January. Our house was built in 1937 (it has been upgraded several times), has very old plumbing that probably needs replacing, lacks a master bedroom suite, but has soje desirable features. It is also on a large enough piece of land that a tear down and a replacement with a very expensive new house was possible. The realtor couple never listed the house — they talked with builders, some of whom walked the property to see about the possibilities for a tear down, and one who walked through the house to consider upgrading it. That builder decided to buy it, and after some back and forth, less than two weeks after we signed with the realtors, we had a deal at an acceptable price, with the closing April 30, with the right to stay in the house for two months rent free (the equivalent of a purchase price thousands actually more). But that meant we would need a new home by June 30th.

That created a major problem for us, which I will describe below the fold.

Kendal Crosslands Community (KCC) is almost fully filled. KCC will, unlike most such communities, allow to move into a smaller unit (for lower entrance and monthly fees) until the size you want becomes available. We were prepared to do that, and were going through the processes t0 enable us to have that option, when the only residence that would have met our needs was taken by someone ahead of us on the priority list. There was no guarantee when ANY suitable residence, even one much smaller than our needs, would be available, and we might have to rent in the nearby community for several years, which would have meant we would NOT have the medical coverage one gets by being part of such a community.

We explored several other communities. One we had never officially registered for and they would not qualify us for the size residence we wanted. Two others, both run by Sunrise but owned by their communities, we were already on the lists and had suitable apartments available. The Colonnades, in Charlottesville on land owned by the University of Virginia foundation, was lovely with an apartment whose layout we loved. But it was 5 hours away from her family, which is mainly in Delaware the NJ suburbs of Philadelphia. So we once again last Saturday visited the Quadrangle, in Haverford PA.

entrance to the community of the Quadrangle

On Sunday my wife decided she wanted to move there, so today we went back, signed the paperwork to enter and to take out an interest fee promissary note for one year for ¾ of the entrance fee. We now have our final home — 2 BR with 2 BA, 1,000 square feet, in an intellectually vibrant community. We know that from experience — the father of my beloved Leaves on the Current, who was a retired Swarthmore College Math professor as well as a serious post-retirement naturalist, spent the last five years of his life in that community and was very happy there.

There are several retired faculty members from both Haverford College, where I did my undergrad and from the music department at Penn, where I did some doctoral studies 5 decades ago.There are two superb hospitals nearby. My wife notes that there is a center for research and greatment of multiple myeloma, the blood cancer she has. It is about 2 miles from the Haverford campus, and perhaps and equal distance from her high school alma mater, the Shipley School.

She is an hour or less from 3 of her four siblings (the other teaches African Art at Middlebury College in VT) as well as nieces and nephews. I hae a Quaker Meeting a 5 pimute drive away. There is nice Greek Orthodox Church about 4 miles away, and she is an hour away from the Orthodox Church near one of her sisters that she has attended off and on when visiting family over perhaps more than a dozen years. Oh, and my best man now attends the Greek Orthodox Church I just mentioned.

There is one other MAJOR factor that influenced our decision. PA does not out state tax on pensions, IRAs and equivalent. That include my wife’s federal thrift savings, which is the bulk of our assets. In VA we would pay 5.75% on both (neither state taxes Social Security).

We are happy with our decision, relieved that we know where and when we will move. I can on weekends once we have access begin to move clothes and books in.

So our plans have changed, but we are more than happy how things have worked out. Now we are starting tell people, and hence this post.

Peace.

Lawyers - how Trump is ripping off his political contributors

teacherken

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday January 20, 2024 · 3:22 PM PST

2024/01/20 · 15:22

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 25: One of former President Donald Trump's lawyers, Alina Habba, watches as Trump speaks to the media moments after he was fined $10,000 for what Justice Arthur Engoron in New York says is his second violation of a partial gag order at his civil fraud trial at New York State Supreme Court on October 25, 2023 in New York City. The former president may be forced to sell off his properties after Justice Engoron canceled his business certificates and ruled that he committed fraud for years while building his real estate empire after being sued by Attorney General Letitia James, seeking $250 million in damages. The trial will determine how much he and his companies will be penalized for the fraud. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Offering the following without comment:

Jeannine-High Priestess of Defeating Boebert

reposted

Daniel Uhlfelder

@DWUhlfelderLaw

FEC records show that between January 1, 2023, and June 30, 2023, Donald Trump's Super PAC, SAVE AMERICA, made payments to the following law firms in these amounts:

BALLARD SPAHR LLP - $109,174.55

BEDELL, DITTMAR, DEVAULT, PILLANS & COXE, P.A. – $351,040.77

BINNALL LAW GROUP - $1,031,788.33BLANCHE LAW - $353,090.03

BRAND WOODWARD LAW – 201,948.00

BRITO PLLC - $68,194.50

CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM, & TAFT LLP - $344,950.21

CONTINENTAL PLLC - $1,929,207.90

DHILLON LAW GROUP INC. - $734,730.8

EARTH & WATER LAW, LLC - $347,820

HABBA MADAIO & ASSOCIATES LLP - $1,503,915.14

IFRAH LAW PLLC - $720,009.28

FINDLING LAW FIRM - $541,456.25

KELLOGG, HANSEN, TODD, FIGEL & FREDERICK PLLC - $1,042,479

CHRIS KISE & ASSOCIATES, P.A. - $2,148,536.58

JOHN F. LAURO, P.A. - $183,859.03

JPROWLEY LAW PLLC - $35,16

1LEVEL LAW LTD - $89,721.45

MCGLINCHEY STAFFORD - $290,179.17

MINTZ, LEVIN, COHN, FERRIS, GLOVSKY AND POPEO, P.C.- $269,424.39

NECHELESLAW LLP - $465,231.34

PARLATORE LAW GROUP, LLP - $136,325.1

ROBERT & ROBERT, PLLC - $1,355,631.17

SECIL LAW PLLC - $191,980.35

SILVERMAN THOMPSON SLUTKIN & WHITE, LLC – $2,183,578.73

SQUIRE PATTON BOGGS (US) LLP – $193,750

TACOPINA, SEIGEL & DEOREO -$ 1,773,126

WEBER, CRABB & WEIN, P.A. - $193,050

4:55 PM · Jan 20, 2024

·

Some weird experiences with LinkedIn

teacherken

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday January 15, 2024 · 8:32 AM PST

2024/01/15 · 08:32

When I walked away from my teaching job in early October, I activated my LinkedIn account to Premium to look for possible other jobs. I am NOT inclined to go back into the classroom, although I might to finish the school year in the right setting. I was looking for something outside, preferably where I could be (at least largely) virtual (which might allow me to continue when we move in 5-6 months to a LifeCare community). I do NOT have a CV on LinkedIn. I do list my teaching, and also things like blogging, writing, project management, and sales. My most recent CV is all about teaching. I have another document which covers a lot of what I did before becoming a teacher, but that experience is 3 decades ago, and the CV itself makes clear I have been a teacher over the past 3 decades.

In early December it started. I got a LinkedIn message from a woman who claimed to be the assistant to the VP of a wine company. She said that they were recruiting for a virtual position and I seemed to fit what they were looking for. She asked for a CV, so I emailed it and the other info. She had a profile on LinkedIn which listed her at that company.

Shortly later I got an email from a woman who gave her name as a Latina and asked me to set uo a WhatsApp account to communicate, so I did. Turns out she is of Chinese background, at least as far as both her picture and the Chinese name she later gave me. She was recruiting me for a position that would pay at least 50% more than any salary I had ever had, and with job responsibilities beyond what I had done in any capacity (but all things I believe I could easily do). She told me that they paid in crypto (this will become relevant down thread). I said that in that case I was not interested. She then said well they might make an exception in her case. She had a linked in profile which identified her with that company. But I inquired of the company through their website, and they never heard of her and said they had complained to LinkedIn about people misrepresenting themselves as being part of the company and offering people jobs. Shortly thereafter I got a phone call from the woman who tentatively offered me the job, although I did not accept.

But this is just the start of the saga.

teacherken

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday October 17, 2023 · 8:07 AM PDT

2023/10/17 · 08:07

Today is my last day, because I had already assigned work in a couple of classes, and I have an obligation to grade that work and enter it into the grading and attendance program.

I tried yesterday, but it was clear in my first two periods that the situation remained untenable. I resigned online during lunch yesterday, and emailed my administrators and my department chair.

Tne assistant principal who hired me came to my room during the final period and among other things (1) told me it definitely was NOT my fault, the administration totally understands why I am leaving; (2) she told the students they are likely to just have subs covering the class for the rest of the semester, because there are no social studies teachers available.

I was scheduled to teach one of the two teams of 7th graders each semester. This morning 8 of the students from the team I would have taught 2nd semester came up to me and asked me not to leave, because they wanted to have me as a teacher. It is a nice affirmation, but that is simply not possible.

I have no idea what I will do for income. I have been working on applications for one private school vacancy and two private school long term sub positions for part of the rest of this year, but with eye surgeries on Oct 24 and Nov 7, I am probably not available before Thanksgiving. I might just go to a mall and get a position for the holiday season to have a little income. We will see.

I feel sad that this might be my last time in a secondary classroom, but my conscience is clear about my decision.

I thank youthe many affirmations I received on my last posting here.

I am sad it had to end this way.

But I can now feel comfortable using my usual ending, because I feel it.

Peace.

Failing, and feeling broken

teacherken

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday October 15, 2023 · 11:40 AM PDT

2023/10/15 · 11:40

I am not quite sure how to write this. Perhaps a little background first.

For the four school years 2019-2022 I taught at a well-known Catholic high school where I was given complete freedom to teach as I saw fit. I was respected by the community. I looked forward to it being my final job as a teacher.

My wife wants to retire to a Continuing Care Retirement Community (also known as a life-care community) and as we explored possibilities, she got to pick where and in theory I got to pick when since I am almost 11 years older. We had agreed on Kendal Crosslands, about which I wrote here in September of 2022. Our target date was to be around Christmas or a little bit later this winter. That would mean I could not even teach one semester, so I gave notice at my school shortly after last Thanksgiving in order to give them as much time as possible to find my replacement, which they did.

In late February my wife informed me that for a variety of reasons she thought she wanted to work around another 6 months or perhaps a bit more. That meant I could teach another school year. It was tough going as I turned 77 last May to find a one year job in an independent school. One did offer me a job, but really could not pay sufficiently (I was willing to take a pay cut). I therefore explored going back to the school system (Prince George’s MD County Public Schools ( from which I had retired in 2012, but where I had returned for two years (2017-2019) before moving to the Catholic High School. They were delighted to get me back, and when I went to a hiring fair, I talked to six schools all of whom immediately offered me a job — in some cases the hiring administrator was someone with whom I had worked, in one case it was a former student of mine. I was well known and still respected in that system. I instead chose a school with a number of staff members with whom I had worked previously, one of whom had shared my CV with his principal, who had been impressed. When I met with the hiring administrator, the first words out of her mouth were “If I offer you a job will you accept it today?” I did. I chose to teach a 7th grade course called Deliberative Talk, which is a semester course during which students learn how to research a topic about which they care deeply then give a persuasive speech on it, then in the 2nd quarter learn how to work towards building peace. I felt it was a very good fit for my final year of teaching. And for what it is worth, the salary is 34K more than I was making at the Catholic High School.

It has not been a good fit

It is clear I have failed, and as a result, I feel broken. I do not expect that I will even finish the first semester with my current students.

teacherken

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday September 10, 2023 · 3:07 PM PDT

2023/09/10 · 15:07

The Oscar statuette is the copyrighted property of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and the statuette and the phrases "Academy Award(s)" and "Oscar(s)" are registered trademarks under the laws of the United States and other countries. All published representations of the Award of Merit statuette, including photographs, drawings and other likenesses, must include the legend ©A.M.P.A.S.® to provide notice of copyright, trademark and service mark registration. Permission is hereby granted for use of the representation of the statuette in newspapers, periodicals and on television only in legitimate news articles or feature stories which refer to the annual Academy Awards as an event, or in stories or articles which refer to the Academy as an organization or to specific achievements for which the Academy Award has been given. Its use and any other use is subject to the "Legal Regulations for Using Intellectual Properties of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences" published by the Academy. A copy of the "Legal Regulations" may be obtained from: Legal Rights Coordinator, Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, 8949 Wilshire Boulevard, Beverly Hills, California 90211; (310) 247-3000; or ©A.M.P.A.S.http://www.oscars.org/legal/preamble.html.

Not necessarily for that picture.

I can think of two pictures in which the actors appearing during their careers won a total of 8 Oscars

Bad Day at Black Rock won no acting Oscars. Spencer Tracy had two Best Actor Oscars. Walter Brennan had 3 Best Supporting Actor Oscars. Dean Jagger had one Best Supporting, Lee Marvin and Ernest Borgnine each had one Best Actor award.

Philadelphia saw Tom Hanks win one of his two Best Actor awards. Denzel Washington has one each for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. Joanne Woodward has one Best Actress. Jason Robards has two Best Supporting Actor Awards. Mary Steenburgen has a Best Supporting Actress.

Close behind is Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner with 7 awards. The aforementioned Spencer Tracy still has two, and Katherine Hepburn won one of her four Best Actress awards for her role. in his picture (winning her third one year later for A Lion in Winter). And of course Sidney Poitier has a Best Actor award.

Also close behind is the film with the fourth and final Best Actress for Heburn, On Golden Pond, which also had Jane Fonda who won two Best Actress Oscars and her father Henry Fonda winning his Best Actor Oscar, giving us another film with a total of 7.

I am doing this from memory, as a long-time film buff.

Off the top of my head these are the leaders, but I am sure others here can add films with actors in them with multiple Oscars, perhaps more, perhaps equaling these four films.

Yes I know Lincoln had 6 s- far — 3 Best Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis (who won for this film), two Best Actress for Sally Fields, and one Best Supporting Actor for Tommy Lee Jones, but I did not want to go lower than 7.

Feel free to add in the comments any films with the performers with more than 8, or with 8 or 7.

Peace.

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Could there be a "Silver Wave" for Harris/Walz?

Evangelicals for Harris

My wife thinks I am out of my mind

thoughts on where the US is now

of violence and force

"Random" thoughts from our new home

A Change of Plans

Lawyers - how Trump is ripping off his political contributors

Some weird experiences with LinkedIn

It's Done. I resigned yesterday.

Failing, and feeling broken

Multiple acting Oscars in one picture