because I do not think this election will be close.
So let me lay out some of what I have shared with her, which is why she thinks as she does.
Biden beat Trump by over 7 million votes. At this point I think the only question on popular vote margin is how much North of 10 million votes the margin will be. Here I note that the point margin nationally in one recent national poll would, given the turnout in 2020, translate to a 9.3 million vote margin. And I think the turnout will be greater, Trump’s total will drop …..
It requires 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency without it going to the House. For a variety of reasons, I think the floor for Harris-Walz is circa 320 electoral votes — all the states he won last time plus NC plus the 2nd electoral district in ME. So even were he to lose GA because of voter suppression, that is a loss of only 16, meaning still North of 300 EVs.
I note AZ will have a voter initiative on abortion, and Ruben Gallego should beat Lake by a comfortable margin.
In NC the Republican candidates for Governor and State Superintendent will be drags on the entire ticket.
In TX Abbott’s push for charters is alienating rural voters. If Dems do the field work to get people registered and to the polls, there is the real possibility of flipping that state, and at least a real possibility of defeating Cruz in the Senate.
The real wild card is Ohio — and I think both the popularity of Sherrod Brown and the fact that Vance, who is from OH, is upside down on approval rating in his own state, really changes the landscape.
And then there is Florida. Project 2025 and its threats to Social Security and Medicare change the landscape.
Please note — I am not saying Dems WILL win FL, TX, or OH. I do think they will hold the Blue Wall states (MI PA WI) and NV and AZ — the only doubt would be GA.
I do not think the polling is necessarily yet reflecting how different this race is. I think abortion is still a huge issue. I think there are other issues that are not fully reflected YET in the polling. I think this race is very different, so much that neither the models used by pollsters or the frames used by the punditocracy have yet caught up.
As long as there is no MAJOR disruption of the convention I do not see things that can change the current impetus, I see Trump somewhat flailing. making comments that will hurt both his campaign and Republicans down ballot. And Harris and Walz have so far been masterful.
The one question is how the media will react. They don’t want a blowout, because it costs them money. But I do not think traditional media has that much of an influence any more, and certainly not with young folk.
So my wife thinks I am nuts. Do you agree with her?
I think both TX and FL could be in play, although not in that order. And I think OH is starting to come into play.
