Targeted House Races in 2006

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Monday November 15, 2004 · 6:28 PM PST

2004/11/15 · 18:28

Despite all the gloom and doom over the election results, the D's didn't do that bad in the House. They will lose 3-4 seats it appears, not bad considering we lost 5 in Texas alone! The problem was that there was no "tidal wave" to help the D's out. Incumbents won 98% of the time, and of course that helps the GOP at the moment since they hold the majority.

The D's are actually in pretty good shape going into '06. With the possible exception of redistricting in GA we don't appear to have many vulnerable seats: Bean in IL-8, possibly Salazar in CO-3 but thats about it! Of course a lot depends on open seats as well. Read More

Some ideas to regain the House...

wajeff

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Wednesday November 03, 2004 · 6:02 PM PST

2004/11/03 · 18:02

Well this elections are over (except in Louisiana) and face it it stank! But rather than mope around and listen to Morrissey tunes we should get right back to work!

We should take some lessons from the GOP in the late 80s and early 90s to help us retake the house within the forseeable future:

1) Constantly bring up ethics issues (Mr. Delay anyone!) The truce is over. Even if it means some of our own must suffer for their own misdeeds keep up the pressure. If the national media won't cover it then work thru local media or take it to the internet, Air America, etc. Read More

TX GOP Congressman bares all...

wajeff

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Monday October 11, 2004 · 5:50 PM PDT

2004/10/11 · 17:50

Found this off the wires:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25067-2004Oct11.html

Apparently when young and irresponsible, Mr. Sessions was young and irresponsible. But now he's seen the light and will fight to keep America safe from Janet Jackson!

New SUSA polls

wajeff

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Tuesday October 05, 2004 · 9:44 PM PDT

2004/10/05 · 21:44

They released them amidst all the debate hubub, but some interesting results:

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

I know a lot of people have questioned SUSA's methodology. I do have to question them showing California as a closer race than WA state for example.

Nonetheless, some encouraging news. MO is still close, both for President and Governor. The MO Senate race seems too far gone however. Also good news in my home WA state for all the key races, although again I suspect it may be a tad closer than their numbers suggest. I suspect the CA numbers actually show a closer race than truly exists.

The OH numbers look really good for Kerry, again the Senate race looks bad. NC shows a solid but not overlarge lead for Bush, a virtual tie for Senate (burr seems to have narrowed the gap in other polls as well), but a huge lead for Easley in the Governor's race. So overall some good news!

VP Debate? Will it matter?

wajeff

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Friday October 01, 2004 · 6:10 PM PDT

2004/10/01 · 18:10

I was just wondering if next week's VP debate will actually matter in any way, shape, or form.

Historically, VP debates have often been more entertaining then the Presedential debates. They have also featured moments like Bob Dole bitterly denouncing those "democratic wars", Lloyd Bentsen with one of the great put-downs in politcial history ("you're no Jack Kennedy"), and the surreal Adm. Stockdale visitation in 1992.

But does it matter? Bentsen squashed Quayle like a bug, and the GOP still won. One could argue Quayle outdebated Gore in 92 but it didn't make any real difference in the end. So is the Cheney-Edwards encounter at all significant??

New ARG State Polls...

wajeff

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Thursday September 16, 2004 · 5:35 PM PDT

2004/09/16 · 17:35

The are rolling out their 50 state polls. First 20 came out today...most of the "big" states weren't included. A few interesting ones: CO is 46-45 Bush, ME is 48-44 Kerry, MN is 47-45 Kerry as is OR, while WA is 51-44 Kerry. While some of these are a litte close for comfort, in virtually all states Kerry is running even or ahead of Gore 4 years ago (only exception seems to be HI but that is still safe for Kerry). CO numbers are very encouraging.

Link: http://americanresearchgroup.com

Race2004.net analysis

wajeff

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Wednesday September 15, 2004 · 10:59 PM PDT

2004/09/15 · 22:59

Interesting stuff: this site, taking today's new polls into account, says Kerry will win the Electoral vote 274-264 while losing the popular vote, narrowly, to Bush.

There would be a certain poetic justice if this were to occur. Obviously still a ways to go yet. I don't neccesarily buy some of today's polls (Kerry losing NJ, winning IL by only 4, etc.). And of course this analysis is just theoretical.

Link: http://www.race2004.net

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