Army veteran John James, who was the GOP’s nominee last year against Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, announced Thursday that he would run for the Senate again this cycle, setting up a challenge with Democratic incumbent Gary Peters.
James impressed national Republicans last cycle by raising a credible $12 million for his bid against Stabenow and holding her to a 52-46 win despite receiving little outside help. James’ performance looked all the more impressive since, on that same night, Republican Bill Schuette lost an open-seat race for governor to Democrat Gretchen Whitmer by a considerably wider 53-44 margin, amid a very good night for Michigan Democrats generally.
The NRSC began trying to recruit James for a repeat bid soon after his defeat, but their counterparts at the GOP’s House campaign arm also sought James for a run against freshman Rep. Haley Stevens in the 11th Congressional District. The White House also weighed in, but Trump aides reportedly wanted James to run for the House because they feared a statewide campaign would hurt Trump’s re-election efforts because it would lead Democrats to send more money to Michigan to protect Peters.
The NRSC quickly pushed back with a memo arguing that James would aid Trump’s quest to win Michigan’s 16 electoral votes again, and Politico reports that James and Trump met at the White House last month. Trump apparently wasn’t as concerned as his staffers, but nor was he excited about a James Senate campaign. According to Politico, Trump “did not explicitly encourage or discourage James from running for Senate.”
Trump may have been lukewarm, but James is likely the strongest candidate that Team Red could field against Peters. Still, he’s very much in for a difficult race. While a Morning Consult poll gave Peters a modest 33-23 approval rating for the first quarter of 2019, the senator has experience winning tough contests.
Peters unseated a Republican House incumbent in a swingy district in 2008 and managed to hold on to his seat two years later despite the GOP wave even as many colleagues in similar districts went down to defeat. Peters then decisively won his first Senate race in 2014 during another strong Republican year (albeit against a weak GOP nominee). He’s also a strong fundraiser and ended March with $3 million in the bank.
One key reason James’ stock emerged from the midterms as high as it did was because Stabenow did not run any negative ads against him. Peters, however, won’t hold back if he feels threatened. Most of all, though, the Senate race will probably depend on how well Trump does in the Wolverine State next year. Trump shocked the world in 2016 with his narrow victory in Michigan, but Democrats rebounded strongly in 2018, sweeping every statewide race, picking up seats in the legislature, and flipping two House seats that Trump had carried (including the one James spurned, the 11th).
And that’s ultimately why Peters remains the favorite: He can win even if Trump does well. James, on the other hand, needs another strong Trump performance to have a shot at unseating the incumbent. But if Michigan once again goes blue, then it will be extremely difficult for James, who said during his last campaign that he backed the administration “2,000%,” from get swamped.
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