In 2015, Iran had generated enough highly enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon. Then President Barack Obama worked together with a coalition of nations to press Iran into an agreement that not only enforced the highest level of inspections ever required, but forced Iran to actually surrender the uranium it had already enriched. And from that date forward, Iran did not have enough material on hand to create a weapon.
Until now. Thanks to Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran agreement, Iran has once again enriched enough uranium to build a bomb. And it’s done so at a time when its government is increasingly isolated, increasingly fragile, and increasingly desperate.
As The New York Times reports, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—which has monitored and inspected Iran’s nuclear facilities under the 2015 agreement—now believes that Iran has more than replaced the 97% of its stockpile that it gave up under the deal brokered by Obama. Not only have IAEA inspectors been forced out of Iran since the start of the year, ever since Donald Trump broke the treaty unilaterally, Iran has been working to keep inspectors away from some critical facilities.
It’s unclear that Iran has actually enriched enough uranium sufficiently to build a weapon. It is clear that, thanks to Trump’s actions that took away visibility, they could have that material.
This comes after Iran has developed a new series of ballistic missiles that could carry such a weapon to Israel or other sites in the region. And though Iran’s attempt to launch a new satellite in early February failed, Iran has previously launched three satellites (and a monkey) into orbit—demonstrating technology easily adapted to longer range ballistic weapons.
At the same time, Iran is facing not only sanctions from outside, but already existing internal political pressures have been amplified by the outbreak of coronavirus. It’s been clear from the outside that the government there was repressing information about the epidemic, leading to the spectacle of Iran’s health minister giving an upbeat briefing on conditions … while shaking, coughing, and sweating from an infection of the virus. Members of the ruling council are already among the causalities.
Though Iran has now admitted to 3,000 cases and almost 100 deaths, there is no doubt it is underplaying the true situation. This week, the Iranian government finally did accept some materials from the World Health Organization, but it is still resisting offers of most outside assistance.
At the start of the outbreak, it wasn’t just the now sick health minister making predictions that Iran would brush off this “infection from China.” They even offered to export face masks for use by other healthcare systems. But as the nation spirals ever upward, repressing the scope of the issue has become more difficult and the government’s position ever more perilous.
Which is … not a great time for them to be handling one, just one, nuclear bomb.