The chance that Democrats could regain control of the Senate in November just keeps growing. The latest potential game-changer came when Democratic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock put his red state in play by announcing he would challenge incumbent GOP Sen. Steve Daines. Both men have solid favorable ratings, but Bullock's are better, with a +21 net approval according to Morning Consult versus a +16 approval rating for Daines.
But Bullock has added yet another pickup opportunity for Democrats in a state that several prognosticators have now downgraded from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican." Overall the status quo still favors Senate Republicans managing to hang onto control of the chamber, albeit with a decrease in their current 53-47 seat majority. But according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com using the ratings of three top election handicappers, Senate Democrats now have more than twice as many pickup opportunities as Republicans to gain the four seats necessary to flip the chamber (or three seats in the case that Democrats retake the White House).
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Looking at the full range of opportunities above, Democrats have 11 chances for pickups while Republicans have just five. But Democrats' chances look even better if you narrow it down to the most competitive races (toss ups/leans), with eight Democratic targets for flipping seats while Republicans have just two targets.
The most competitive races continue to be in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine—all currently held by Republicans. The most vulnerable Democrat by far is Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, whose district is currently rated “Lean Republican.”