The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-22: The Congressional Leadership Fund has once again released an internal poll of a competitive House race showing the Republican candidate leading but—somehow, mysteriously—has failed to include any information on the presidential contest.
Okay, it's obviously not a mystery at all: Donald Trump's numbers must simply suck, even though CLF's latest survey, from Meeting Street Insights, finds Republican Troy Nehls ahead of Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni 44-32 in Texas' open 22nd Congressional District, the first poll we've seen of the contest. Even those results, with so many undecideds and Nehls well below 50, aren't necessarily all that great for the GOP, which is trying to hold this seat, but the hide-the-ball stunt on the presidential side is getting really egregious at this point: CLF, which is the largest Republican player in House races, has now done the same thing in four polls in just the last week-and-a-half.
Campaign Action
Pretty much every recent House poll from Democrats, by contrast, has trumpeted leads for Joe Biden, even in districts Trump won four years ago. For the Congressional Leadership Fund, however, the prospect of embarrassing Dear Leader with fugly polling data is one that must be avoided at all costs. In fact, that overriding directive is so strong, it’s possible that CLF isn't hiding anything: Republican operative Liam Donovan insists that some GOP pollsters really aren't testing presidential matchups when they go into the field, saying, "You don't ask questions you don't want to know the answer to."
The claim is entirely believable. Last year, ProPublica reported that the RNC had stopped providing crucial "voter scores" on Trump to candidates, both to "discourage candidates from distancing themselves" from Trump and to prevent any leaks of humiliating statistics. More recently, Daily Beast described the great lengths to which Trump's own aides have gone to massage and conceal the truth about his dire standing in the polls.
Simply not asking about Trump's standing at all is the next logical step. But while it might be a great way to keep Trump from getting pissed, burying your head in the sand is also a great way to lose elections.
ELECTION CHANGES
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete summary of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to elections and voting procedures as a result of the coronavirus.
● Connecticut: Connecticut's Democratic-run state legislature has passed a bill to allow all voters to request an absentee ballot for the November general election due to the coronavirus pandemic. Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, who has expressed support for the legislation, has reportedly "promised to quickly sign the measure," according to the CT Mirror.
● Texas: A federal judge has rejected Republican Secretary of State Ruth Hughs' motion to dismiss a case brought by several Texas voters and civil rights organizations seeking to expand access to absentee voting for the November general election.
Plaintiffs are asking the court to order the state to prepay the cost of postage; require officials to count ballots postmarked by Election Day and received within a few days afterward (currently, they must be received by the day after the election); prevent the state from using arbitrary standards to reject absentee ballots for allegedly non-matching signatures without giving voters a chance to fix any problems; and allow third parties to collect and turn in completed absentee ballots.
Based on a schedule the judge previously set out, a ruling on plaintiffs' requests is not likely until after Labor Day.
Senate
● AK-Sen, ME-Sen, MT-Sen: The Lincoln Project, a group formed by several prominent Republican operatives seeking to defeat Trump and his enablers, is spending $4 million on ads opposing Republican senators in Alaska, Maine, and Montana. Their Alaska ad touts Democratic-backed independent Al Gross as a lifelong Alaskan, highlighting his biography and asserting that he'll be an independent voice for the state. Their Montana ad praises Democrat Steve Bullock's tenure as governor and attacks "do-nothing" GOP Sen. Steve Daines, but that commercial is notably missing any specifics in contrast to the Alaska ad.
The group is also spending $1 million in Maine to air a minute-long ad that plays up Maine's history of supposedly independent-minded politicians and contrasts them with GOP Sen. Susan Collins, whom they argue "never stands up to Donald Trump." The narrator blasts Collins as a "fraud" controlled by Mitch McConnell and Trump, whose corruption and abuses of power she enables.
● GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: Monmouth University's first poll of the general election tested both of Georgia's Senate races, and they find competitive contests this fall but also risks for Democrats due to the way Georgia's electoral system works. In the regular Senate election, GOP Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff 49-43, which is just shy of the majority needed for Perdue to avoid a Jan. 5 runoff. However, there's still cause for optimism in this poll since it has the presidential race tied 47-47, meaning Ossoff's standing could improve if undecided voters are disproportionately Democratic-leaning.
In the all-party special election, Monmouth has surprisingly good news for embattled GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler, who leads Republican Rep. Doug Collins 26-20; together, they would snag both spots in an all-but-certain January runoff for Republicans. Among the Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman takes 14%, DSCC-backed pastor Raphael Warnock takes 9%, and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver earns 5%.
National Democrats are firmly united behind Warnock, and he has trounced his intraparty rivals in fundraising. However, a number of surveys have shown that Democratic voters have not yet gotten that memo, likely due to Warnock's relatively low name recognition.
● ME-Sen: Republican Sen. Susan Collins' latest TV ad is an unusual minute-long spot where the senator speaks directly to the camera for most of it. Collins repeats some of the attacks against her—that she's changed over the years and that she's changed her votes in exchange for campaign contributions—in an effort to dispute them, but it could just as easily remind viewers of the negatives against her. The second half of the ad focuses more on Collins' career of supposedly working on behalf of Mainers, and she emphasizes having never missed a roll call vote in the Senate.
● NH-Sen, NH-Gov: The University of New Hampshire's latest poll finds both Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu far ahead in their respective races for re-election. In the Senate race, Shaheen beats both her prospective Republican opponents, attorney Corky Messner and retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc, by identical 54-35 margins. Meanwhile, Sununu doubles up on Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes by 59-28 and Democratic Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky by 58-29. Both Shaheen and Sununu have consistently posted wide leads in the polls. UNH did not release presidential results with this poll.
● Senate: Change Research for CNBC:
- AZ-Sen: Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45 (Biden 47-45) (July: 52-45 Kelly)
- MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D-inc): 48, John James (R): 44 (Biden 46-42) (July: 50-43 Peters)
- NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham (D): 52, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 40 (Biden 49-46) (July: 49-42 Cunningham)
House
● FL-15: State Rep. Adam Hattersley has released what appears to be his first TV ad ahead of the Aug. 18 Democratic primary, and it's a biographical spot narrated by his wife, Christie Hattersley. The spot highlights his military service as an Iraq veteran who was awarded a Bronze Star, and it touts Hattersley's efforts in the state legislature to stop offshore drilling and pollution and vows he will "take on insurance and pharmaceutical companies" to provide affordable health care for everyone if he's elected to Congress.
● MI-03: With the Aug. 4 GOP primary quickly approaching, Army veteran Peter Meijer and state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis have been battling it out on the airwaves this month. Meijer is running two ads (here and here) that claim Afendoulis broke a promise not to raise taxes, is a "Never Trumper," and is also a "liberal" who stands with Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; Meijer's ads spend limited time touting himself as a candidate.
Meanwhile, Afendoulis is also trying to tie her opponent to Whitmer, claiming western Michigan got "Whitmered" and that Meijer is the next Whitmer. She argues that he's the one who's really a Never Trumper and is "pro-China" in contrast to Afendoulis, who pitches herself as a Trump ally.
● MN-02: Republican nominee Tyler Kistner has released a survey from Harper Polling, but it's unclear what exactly Kistner's campaign thinks it's conveying, since the poll finds him trailing Democratic Rep. Angie Craig by a substantial 45-36 margin. Like many recent GOP internal poll releases, this survey didn't disclose any presidential numbers in this swingy suburban district, suggesting that they were quite bad for Trump, which would make it difficult for Kistner to convince voters to fire the first-term Democratic incumbent if they're simultaneously backing the party for president by a comfortable margin.
This poll is the first we've seen of the general election, and it comes after Kistner finally saw a substantial increase in fundraising, having brought in $741,000 in the second quarter. That was enough for Kistner to narrowly outpace Craig, who raised $720,000, but the incumbent has a wide lead in cash-on-hand with $2.5 million in the bank compared to $512,000 for Kistner.
● MN-05: Rep. Ilhan Omar has launched her first TV ad ahead of next month's Democratic primary. Omar narrates the ad and laments our broken housing, economic, and justice systems while scenes depicting poverty and recent protest activism play on screen. Omar contends that she has been leading the fight for justice in Congress and implores viewers to vote on Aug. 11.
● NY-12: Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney issued a statement on Tuesday evening saying she'd amassed "a decisive winning margin of over 3,700 votes" over challenger Suraj Patel, but the New York City Board of Elections still has not released any results from last month's primary, which took place over five weeks ago. Patel's campaign responded by saying "we accept the result" but would not concede because Patel is a plaintiff in a pending lawsuit seeking to have officials count absentee ballots that were never postmarked by the postal service.
It's not clear what the actual vote totals are at the moment, though Patel said 95,000 votes had been tallied, leaving Maloney up "by less than 4%." That would represent an increase from Maloney's lead on election night, when she finished ahead of Patel 41.7 to 40.0 in the in-person vote, which totaled 39,500 for all candidates.
● NY-24: The DCCC has begun airing its first TV ads of the general election, and notably, the committee is doing so in a race where Democrats are on offense: upstate New York's 24th Congressional District, one of just three seats carried by Hillary Clinton four years ago that Republican incumbents are defending this fall.
The D-Trip's ad attacks Republican Rep. John Katko for taking "over $2 million from special interests" in campaign funds, from "big banks, drug companies, and the insurance industry." As a result, the spot argues, Katko has voted "for corporate tax cuts and against holding drug companies accountable." So far, the committee has put $175,000 behind the spot in two separate installments (see here and here) that each look to be for one-week buys, and what appears to be another $40,000 to run the ad on digital platforms.
The NRCC responded by launching a coordinated buy with Katko to air an ad accusing Democrat Dana Balter of not telling the truth about about wanting to raise taxes, using clips of Balter that Republicans also highlighted when she first ran for this seat two years ago. According to the FEC, such coordinated efforts limit party committees to spending $51,000 in House races, as opposed to the unlimited sums they can spend on independent expenditures.
The NRCC/Katko joint spot also features a clip of a recent Balter ad in which she pushed back against a recent Katko ad that attacked her over one of her earlier ads that itself took aim at Katko's first ad of the cycle. (You with us?)
Mercifully, Balter has broken this cycle of back-and-forth with a brand-new positive spot in which she talks about paying her way through college by working as a waitress. She says she lived paycheck to paycheck and describes "how scary it was when I got sick and almost went bankrupt because of health care costs." Balter concludes by promising to "fight for an economic recovery that lifts up people who work hard for a living and makes health care more affordable."
● House: House Majority PAC, the largest super PAC backing Democrats in House races nationally, has announced another $2.3 million in TV ad reservations across eight media markets for the fall. HMP only disclosed the media markets where they're reserving ad time, so we made our best guesses as to which districts they may be targeting with this latest round, almost all of which are held by Democrats already.
Ad Roundup