It’s another Sunday, so for those who tune in, welcome to a diary discussing the Nuts & Bolts of a Democratic campaign. If you’ve missed out, you can catch up any time: Just visit our group or follow the Nuts & Bolts Guide. For years I’ve built this guide around questions that get submitted, hoping to help small candidates field questions. I’ve been grateful to so many campaign managers, field directors, communication directors, and volunteers for sharing their experience, which has continued to be a big part of the story presented every week in this series.
Every election cycle there’s a debate: Some say this will be a “turnout” election where whoever turns out their base will be the most successful—something that’s easy to say, and likely true. Others tell you the importance of winning an election is a matter of persuasion—convincing undecided voters or non-voters that now is the time to turn out and get involved in an election. The debate goes back and forth; groups will debate how this shapes their efforts in a field campaign. Successful campaigns often recognize that both are important. The best method for success is understanding how to manage your time and effort to maximize their impact. Ready to learn a bit more? Here we go.
Mobilization of your own base matters
In 2016, roughly 43% of eligible voters did not vote in the presidential election. Think about that. About half of the potential voters in America did not participate. Getting more Democratic voters involved is key to helping our candidates succeed. What is it that stops these voters from getting to the polls? The American Prospect illustrates the basic reasons that keep the voters we need from getting to the polls.
Mobilization messages are about the voters, since democratic-leaning mobilizable voters would vote for our candidate in large numbers if they came out. The problem is not convincing them which candidate to choose, but rather why it matters to them personally to get off their couch and cast their ballot.
There are many reasons people don’t vote:
- It’s too much trouble.
- They don’t believe the outcome will matter to them or to their lives.
- They feel powerless, generally—so why would their vote matter?
- It’s inconvenient.
- They don’t know how or where to vote.
I want you to look at that list and think about how you, and your turnout effort, can work to correct these problems. And I’m going to offer you a few tips here: The biggest reasons why voters in states that have a long history of vote-by-mail love aren’t because of security or safety—although they believe in both of these things. They like it because it’s convenient. Some voters say that it gives them a chance to hold up their ballot and Google who the heck they are voting for in this year’s election. If you look at the list above, you see three items: 1. “It’s too much trouble,” 2. “It’s inconvenient,” or 3. “They don’t know where to vote.” By telling people to “sign up to vote-by-mail” in states where that’s possible, you can lead with jokes to break the ice: “If you want to vote from your couch, or laying in bed, it’s possible with vote by mail. Heck, you can vote naked in your bathroom. No one will know. Just drop it in a mailbox on your way to work.” You shatter three of the reasons why voting is inconvenient, and you help ensure voters feel safe in voting.
The next two commonly given reasons are “They feel powerless,” and “It doesn’t matter.” This is something that can really harm great candidates. When you have a truly terrible incumbent, the key argument is always the same: It will matter to your life because you’ll be able to tell your kids and grandkids you were on the right side of history, and you didn’t enable this madness (for Democratic-leaning voters). And for others: Frankly, if it doesn’t matter then it’s still less work to just vote-by-mail. Make the effort, because it could also matter to someone near to you, or someone you love.
Can persuasion work?
In test after test, we have mixed to middling results around persuasion. It can work in a primary where you’re dividing like-minded audiences. In a general election, however, so many voters have already made up their minds that persuading them to “switch sides” can be exceptionally difficult and costly—unless your candidate is planning to run a campaign where they run contrary to a view of their party.
Vox points out the results of a Kalla Broockman study examining that phenomenon here:
So what does this mean for campaigns? One takeaway is that campaigns and non-campaign groups like Working America could do well to focus more of their energy on boosting turnout at the end of a race than persuading voters earlier on. Another is that campaign funders should consider directing more money to primary election and ballot initiatives, where persuasion does appear possible.
Science Advances published an excellent study on Sept. 2, 2020. This study, conducted by Alexander Coppock, Seth Hill, and Lynn Vavreck, gets into why and how political ads and impact work. The short summary, though, is at the top of the article.
Evidence across social science indicates that average effects of persuasive messages are small. One commonly offered explanation for these small effects is heterogeneity: Persuasion may only work well in specific circumstances. To evaluate heterogeneity, we repeated an experiment weekly in real time using 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign advertisements. We tested 49 political advertisements in 59 unique experiments on 34,000 people. We investigate heterogeneous effects by sender (candidates or groups), receiver (subject partisanship), content (attack or promotional), and context (battleground versus non-battleground, primary versus general election, and early versus late). We find small average effects on candidate favorability and vote. These small effects, however, do not mask substantial heterogeneity even where theory from political science suggests that we should find it. During the primary and general election, in battleground states, for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, effects are similarly small. Heterogeneity with large offsetting effects is not the source of small average effects.
While there are some persuasive effects of major ads, the returns are diminishing ones as time goes on. I believe, with no study in hand, this is due to more DVR usage, less watching of live TV, and more cord-cutters combined with satellite radio, Spotify, Amazon Prime Music, Apple Music, and other streaming services, meaning fewer people are getting local coverage.
So how do you find the voters you want to reach? I want you to change the way you think about persuasion. Look at the list above. First, I want you to eliminate anyone in the “F” column from anyone your campaign ever contacts. There are campaigns that commit outright illegal acts by contacting Republican voters who “sometimes” vote and asking them to vote for the Democratic candidate. Heads up: It only reminds them to turn out and vote against you.
Even though Democratic voters who “always vote” and “sometimes vote” should be votes for you, a phone call, text, or other contact to make them get out and vote matters, especially with those who are “sometimes” voters. This is your persuasion effort. It’s partly about getting them to vote for your candidate, and also about convincing your sometimes voter to become an always voter. Guess what happens there—your sometimes voter has their own circle of influence, and slowly, you lower the number of those in the “never vote” category. This is an effort that really matters.
When it comes to swing voters, they may be identified and can be on your list, but I’m of the belief that you should qualify them first by asking: “Do you have an opinion on the election between … ” If they give an answer that’s not your candidate, thank them for their time and move on. I’m sorry, but you can waste too much time trying to convince someone who is already largely decided, and then the only thing you’re doing is convincing them to actually turn out against you in the case of category D, or convince them to vote against you in C. If they’re really unsure or lean your way, then have the conversation. Help them to find the tools to turn out and vote.
If you need to find out how to get them registered to vote, and how to get a ballot by mail, voting location, or early voting polling place, you can check it all out at IWILLVOTE.COM or send them the link. It’s pretty easy to do, even over a phone call.
Summary
Persuading voters that voting can be convenient and easy has been a challenge. Too many voters skip elections because they just want to go home and get whatever rest they can before the next day. COVID-19 will make it tempting for more voters to have an excuse that says: “I just want to stay home.” Make your persuasion effort this campaign a way to show them that not only is voting important, but it can be easy.