I'm going to go WAY out on a limb here and speculate, based on the demonstrated ability of BushCo to get it stunningly wrong, that they will manage to get the revengeful tribes stirred up and the Shia pissed enough to hit the streets in their millions and whoever is left of the entrepenureal classes looking to Europe for investors once the Americans are pushed back into their permanent bases out in the western Iraq desert. The CPA's role here is to be the bad guy, the straw man that gives the Iraqis the focus to unite as Iraqis and together throw the bums out, or at least, cooped up on their bases. From that unity, hopefully, arises goverance, if not a government, but it's THEIRS, they "won" it.
So is it utterly ridiculous to hope that in this fragile moment of unitary euphoria, the Iraqis could all "get it" that working together gets them everything? If things quiet down, the aid and relief comes back, followed by investors and contractors etc. and Iraq grows itself into that beacon of hope, a functioning and tolerant secular state where business is welcome to come in and do some bidness without screwing the people too much. As I understand it (I am not an historian), this is about where Iraq was before their leader (and his supporters at the time, the US) took them off the deep end. So there are enough folks around with memory/experience of the good old days, pre Saddam's Stalinesque fugue state.
So all that stands between this lovely vision and reality is the right propaganda campaign being launched on the Iraqis, and the CPA goading of the Iraqis into pushing them out of the valley and out to their desert bases, where they can defend themselves and stop taking all the casualties. (How soon will those bases be ready?)
Barring the emergence of a popular leader who can articulate this vision of modern, renascent Iraq, it will take public relations blitz, not just written in Arabic, but thought out in Arabic,
of monumental proportions to convince the Iraqis to put the weapons down and not use them on each other (fellow Muslims, all).
As I write this, part of me says "This is hopelessly naive; those folks won't get it and Iraq will all collapse in anarchic ruin."
However, those folks have been there a LONG time, in one form or another, and I keep hearing that the Iraqis are an educated and sophisticated people, so why couldn't a vision of renascent Iraq take hold in the Iraqi national consciousness?