I was looking at the
Electoral Map Calculator for 2004, which is set to the states won and lost in 2000. So the numbers are good as far as 2k census goes.
And, interestingly enough, here's what we find:
1) If Bush wins the same states he did last time;
and
2) The Democratic nominee (oh, let's just go ahead and call it Dean, though who knows) wins the same states Gore/Lieberman won in 2000 plus West Virginia and New Hampshire;
then
3) We have a tie in the electoral college.
This is plausible, no? Given Bush's issues with steel tarrifs, and Dean's popularity in NH, these are plausible gains for Dean.
Ok, then what? It goes to Congress. Do they decide based on popular vote? Or do they decide based on political party in power (ie Bush)?
My guess is that they would stick with Bush, despite a nasty nasty outcry about stealing the election. If the Republican leadership gave a damn about 'outcry', they'd never have had the stones to go after redistricting in Texas and Colorado this year.
You heard it here first (well, you probably heard it someplace else first, but whatever).