I've posted new Delegate counts w/ the results of the latest WI and NJ polls.
A summary of the changes:
Counting undecideds (method 1):
Clark loses 62 dels to Dean, to Kerry and to Undecided (which went up by 7 in NY). Lieberman gains in WI but gives up some delegates in NJ as Dean closes in a bit, resulting in a net loss of 23 dels for Lieberman. Kerry actually gains 20%, or 41 dels, by placing above 15% in NJ.
Clark remains in the lead w/ 1616 to Dean's 1565, w/ Lieberman in 3rd w/ 687.
Eliminating undecideds (method 2):
Removing undecideds and splitting the undecided votes proportionately, according to poll results:
Clark loses only 40 dels. Dean picks up 44. Lieberman loses 3, and Kerry loses 3.
Dean leads clark 1681 to 1415, with Lieberman in 3rd with 671.
Let me know if you prefer one of the two methods as being more accurate. (The justification being that few people vote undecided at the actual polls.)
If you click through you'll see I've added (at the bottom) delegate counts at major date milestones:
After IA and NH, Dean leads Kerry/Gephardt by 30% or 11 delegates
After Feb 3rd, Dean leads Clark by 38% or 54 dels
Before Super Tuesday, Dean leads Clark by 24% or 113 dels
After Super Tuesday, Dean leads Clark by 25% or 225 dels
This reflects Clark's strength in the later states, especially those AFTER Super Tuesday, where he catches up to Dean, closing within 15%.
Click here to view the latest numbers (263 KBytes)
Click here for previous diary entries.
