I don't advocate gambling in any way shape or form, but I think it's interesting to see how the Las Vegas / Offshore betting analysts (who may or may not know any more about politics than the rest of us) seem to mirror the conventional wisdom. Heck they may even come here and read the
Empirical Cattle Call to help formulate their opinions.
Those convinced that Clark will win the nomination would be wise to invest now, at slightly worse than 2/1 odds. The odds will only get worse (i.e. less payout) if his campaign starts to look like it's coming together.
I wish I'd bet on Dean back when he was 100/1, but I don't gamble so... fooey.
http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/non-sports-events.jsp
Odds to Be the Democratic Candidate for the 2004 US Presidential Election
BoDog.com (October 24th #s in parens)
4/5 means if you bet 5 bucks, you get 9 back if he wins.
Howard Dean 4/5 (up from 6/5)
Wesley Clark 9/5 (down from 7/5)
John Kerry 6/1 (down from 4/1)
Dick Gephardt 8/1 (up from 10/1)
Hillary Clinton 12/1 (up from 15/1)
Field 12/1 (up from 20/1... does that mean everyone else stinks?)
John Edwards 15/1 (15/1)
Joe Lieberman 15/1 (15/1)
Al Sharpton 100/1 (100/1)
http://www.americasline.com/pres.html
Saturday, November 1, 2003 (October #s in parens)
By DAVID SCOTT
Senior Analyst
Americasline.com
ODDS TO BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004
George W. Bush 4/5 (same)
Howard Dean 4/1 (up from 5/1)
John Kerry 8/1 (down from 6/1)
Dick Gephardt 12/1 (same)
Wesley Clark 15/1 (down from 12/1)
Joe Lieberman 20/1 (down from 15/1)
John Edwards 40/1 (same)
Carol Moseley-Braun 250/1 (same)
Dennis Kucinich 250/1 (same)
Ralph Nader 500/1 (same)
Al Sharpton 1000/1 (same)
