Don't scream at me for this--take it as the late-night soliloquy of someone having an earnest, heartfelt argument with himself about which candidate, among several fine ones, is most likely to send Bush back to Crawford in humiliation in '04. And skip it if you're already sick of this subject...
I'm one of the many folks who would be very enthusiastic about either Dean or Clark, and still haven't fully committed to either one, but I gotta say that after tonight, if I had to pick just one, I'd probably go with Clark.
I love Dean and I completely admire his disdain for BS, and I know exactly what he meant about the Confederate flag-voter and agree with him, BUT, I think tonight showed the limits and risks of the "straight talk" thing, combined with Dean's somewhat uncharming refusal/incapacity to modulate his tone. While Dean didn't say anything about rednecks in pickup trucks that any other normal human being wouldn't t say over a couple of beers when discussing southern politics, he showed a tin-ear for how such informal cracks can be used against him in the public debate. And he made the situation much worse by his dismissive attempts to wave the issue away and his obvious contempt for those who were pummeling him, rightfully so, for his own misstep. He came off as someone who thought anyone who disagreed with him was an idiot, which can be appealing when you agree with him, but can be disastrous with those who aren't already on his side.
Does anyone seriously think Dean made any inroads with independent Southern voters tonight? As someone living in the South, I can tell you that, setting aside the flag issue itself, simply Dean saying "I refuse to apologize for reaching out to poor whites," as he said tonight, isn't going to win any votes, especially since he thus explicitly equates southernness, racism, and poverty. The people with rebel flags on their trucks (and believe me, there are loads of `em down here) don't see themselves as either racist or, perhaps more significantly, poor. They think of themselves as hard-working southern Americans. And Dean just confirmed every prejudice they have about how they think snotty Yankees see southerners. I hate to agree with turncoat Zell, but Dean basically did exactly what Zell has been screaming about all week. And however much we may hate him, Zell is a god round these parts and his views are deeply reflective of his constituency.
Even if there's obvious truth in Dean's argument that white southerners have been voting for the GOP for decades but have nothing to show for it, there's a difference between being right and being smart. Mondale was right about taxes and look where that got us. And for the first time tonight I began to have doubts about Dean's political savvy. First, he can't just shoot his mouth off and presume that there won't be consequences. Live by the "straight talk," die by the "straight talk." Second, one simple, short, graceful mea culpa ("I misspoke") would have killed this story in its cradle, but his orneriness has now turned it into a major issue that both threatens to stall his candidacy and has given Bush a ready-made weapon for the general election. Third, good arguments aren't enough to win elections, sadly. He can be as smart and as right as he likes, but that's entirely secondary to whether or not the voters think he's an uppity prick (think Al Gore). And after tonight, I'm afraid I can't see Dean winning a single southern state in the general election (or perhaps even in the primaries). He's both too stubborn to change his approach (or his personality), and he's already written the script for the GOP attack ads that will be used devastatingly against him. And we need to win at least a couple of southern states if we're going to have any hope of dumping W. Which is why, among other reasons, I think Clark is probably the guy. This post is already too long, so I won't enumerate what else I saw tonight in Clark that makes me think he could be the man (I can post it later if anybody cares), but I just thought I'd put this out there in the spirit of constructive soul-searching.
But all that said, I'm still going to a Dean meet-up (my first!) tomorrow night.
