The lack of polling data available for Washington State has been frustrating. We should be an important state this year, because we are the first Western state with a diverse demographic base. It's looking like the race may be effectively over after Iowa and New Hampshire, but if it's not, we will certainly either severly strengthen or weaken the anti-Dean. I can't understand why states like Pennsylvania get polled, but we do not. I conducted my own phone poll of party officers in my legislative district to get an idea of the candidates' support here.
I have to disclose that I work for the Dean campaign. With that in mind, I have been shocked to see other campaigns reveal scenarios wherein they imagine their candidate winning here. While it may be true that Dean's strength is relatively weaker in other parts of the state, the fact is that he is the only candidate that even registers in King County.
We are a caucus state this year. Our primary election was recently cancelled by the legislature in a cost-saving move, since it was to have no bearing on our delegate selection process. Our voter precinct caucuses are chaired by PCOs (precinct committee officers). They are Democratic Party officers, and they have an enormous impact on who shows up to the local caucus to elect delegates.
As part of my work for the Dean campaign, I phoned every PCO in my legislative district. The 43rd Legislative District includes most of urban Seattle, including North Seattle, Capitol Hill, and Downtown. What I found was what I expected to find: That Dean is a lock, at least in this part of the state. The only way I was able to envision another candidate winning here was if they had disproportionate support among the party officers, so that they could restrict turnout in their precincts to supporters of their candidate. In fact, it seems that in Seattle, Dean is just as popular with party regulars as he is with casual voters.
I'm sorry this is so unscientific. I have to assume that the numbers are somewhat slanted towards Dean, since I identified myself as a Dean volunteer and supporters of other candidates may not have wanted to identify themselves to me... although there were only a small number who refused to support a candidate or who were undecided.
Dean: 36
Clark: 10
Kerry: 3
Kucinich: 5
Edwards: 3
LaRouche: 2
Undecided: 15