It's been a while since my last post, so I figured I should provide something special.
I started saving the numbers each day that they were updated, so that I can do graphs and other historical analyses.
Trends
Here's the first graph, showing 11/28 to 12/19 (click for a larger version).
You can see a dramatic bump in the polls around 12/9... hmm, wonder what that could be ;-)
Dean's numbers have been trending upwards at a rate of about 30.3 delegates per day. At a constant rate, he would probably have 2159 (enough to win the convention) by Christmas, however I think there will be a delay caused by the Christmas news cycle slowdown. Sometime between Christmas and the New Year, if polls continue to come out, he will clinch this (and by clinch it, I mean by my estimation, based on polls and endorsements. I'm not one of those Dean supporters who thinks that it's a done deal, so everyone can knock off and drink up)
For the rest of the data, click "There's more".
Wins by date
This counts the number of early primary wins (up till Super Tuesday, March 2) within each date range, with a total number of Super Tuesday wins at the bottom.
Since I started tracking this on Dec 4, Dean has gained 4 total, Lieberman has lost 2, and Clark has lost 1. The 1 additional gain by Dean comes from a previously unpolled state.
Delegate counts
Current delegate totals (by the convention, counting SuperDelegate endorsements) and Delegates won in each date (not counting Supers)
Click the image above or here to view all of the numbers (282 KBytes), as well as all of the polls that serve as source data. I am pretty sure I'm tracking the most recent poll in each of 30 states, and 1 national poll.
Superdelegates
Kerry's campaign was nice enough to provide a document listing all of their SuperDel endorsements/supporters. That gave Kerry a 14% lead in Supers, w/ 56 to Dean's 51. I'm waiting for the other campaigns to do the same (hint hint Jendry et al.)
You can view the full breakout of all 187 SuperDelegates here.
I still need help tracking Supers down, so if you know how local pols are trending, PLEASE let me know.
Thanks!
-- Adam
