This is the first of these I'm doing, so I hope I don't mess it up.
I'm leaving out Texas, since everything there is up in the air.
- OR-5 - It's a swing district and State Senator Jackie Winters could be a strong challenger to Hooley, who was never won by wide margins.
- MD-8 - The CD where I am now. Chuck Floyd is running. He already has a campaign set up and running; a friend of mine lives across the street from Floyd's campaign HQ, and they've been very busy. This one could be interesting.
- CA-17 - This is assuming that Bruce McPherson runs. A Republican who can win in Santa Cruz would be a tough challenge, even though this district is strongly Democratic. If McPherson doesn't run, then this district won't be competetive.
- ME-2 - Kevin Raye could give Michaud another tough challenge. Although this district will probably give the Democratic nominee for President a larger % of the vote next year than Gore got, it's still a swing district.
- NY-4 - I'm from this district. Marilyn O'Grady did better than expected last year, and she's running again. Of course, McCarthy always runs much stronger in Presidential years, so he may do so again.
- FL-2 - Bev Kilmer has already been shown to be a strong candidate, and the new district is a good deal more Republican than it had been.
- ND-1 - Rick Clayburgh isn't running, but other candidates, like the State House Majority Leader, who has expressed interest in running, can easily be competetive.
- MS-2 - Bennie Thompson had a close race last year, and Clinton LaSueur is running again. Thompson seems to ignore half of the district, which makes it harder for him to get votes.
- LA-5 - There's no reason to think that Alexander is in trouble, but the district is conservative and will probably vote strongly for Bush next year. There are a bunch of potential GOP candidates, including State Senator Robert Barham and Lee Fletcher.
- NY-1 - Tim Bishop has been raising a lot of money, but this district is never safe for Democrats. Town Supervisor John Jay LaValle would be a strong opponent if he runs.
- IA-3 - This district is marginal, and Stan Thompson, who did well in 2002 - better than expected, is definitely running again. Libby Jacobs, the State House Majority Whip, is also listed as a potential candidate.
- IN-9 - This is another strong Bush district. Mike Sodrel, who Baron Hill defeated by only 51-46, is running again. This is O'Bannon territory though, and the Governor's race may be a plus for Hill.
- CA-20 - Cal Dooley is retiring. This district is pretty Democratic, but State Senator Roy Ashburn is running. He won an open State Senate seat, albeit the most Republican one in the state) easily. If the Democrats have a divisive primary, Ashburn might have an opening.
- UT-2 - This district is extremely consevative and Republican. Also, the Southwest corner of the state is growing and almost entirely GOP. Matheson did win in 2002 though. If he expands his efforts beyond SLC and Carbon County, he should do better in Grand, Wayne, San Juan, and Wasatch Counties, which will make things easier for him. Kevin Swallow is running again.
- PA-17 - Tim Holden has a bunch of Republican opponents already, including Scott Paterno. This is a pretty Republican district, so Holden will have a tough race. He's used to it, though. His old district never voted for Bill Clinton or Al Gore.
- NC-1 - Frank Ballance doesn't even have a Republican opponent yet, but the increasing scandal around him could give even a mediocre challenger of the Mike Flanagan variety an opportunity for a big upset. Ballance could be primaried or resign as well.
- GA-3 - Although Jim Marshall appears to be running again, the race was very close in 2002, and Calder Clay is running again. The race should be very competitive again, and both sides are going to fight for the district.
- KS-3 - Dennis Moore has never had an easy race, and his margins have been small every time. Whoever the Republican nominee is, Moore isn't likely to have any easier of a time in 2004.
- PA-13 - There are big fields on both sides here. It's too early to tell how the Democratic field will shape up; Allyson Schwarz would appear to be the strongest candidate, due to her statewide campaigning experience. Republicans have been campaigning hard, although their field is no more clear. The district is very much a swing district, and could go either way, unless Jon Fox is the GOP nominee. If he is, the race is likely Democratic. Joe Hoeffel may give the Democratic nominee a boost in the general election if he ends up the Senate nominee.
- KY-4 - Ken Lucas is retiring. The district is basically the most Republican in the state. Nick Clooney could be a good nominee, but his ties to George culd give him problems too. Geoff Davis is running again, and Republicans are favored here whether Davis is the Republican nominee or not.