I usually wouldn't post this diary entry, but since it seems like a topic of discussion and because I know and like the author of the article I will.
Paradise Lost
In early 2003, starting from near zero, Trippi insanely promised 150,000 supporters by June 30. He delivered 159,000. Then he insanely promised 450,000 by September's end--and delivered that too. So when he predicted 900,000 devoted supporters by the end of the year, and 2,000,000 by the November election, it seemed not just plausible but inevitable. When he said that each supporter might reasonably donate $100 to the campaign--producing $200 million to match the $200 million flooding Bush's coffers--and when Dean opted out of the public financing system in a show of fundraising faith, it seemed like Trippi was onto something. And when he added that Dean's mushrooming grassroots base proved him the most electable Dem, who then could contradict him?
But now, premonitions of trouble. This quarter the number of Deaniacs began to plateau, up a mere 100,000; it was supposed to balloon more than three times that. And the money total was only a fraction more than the $14.8 million Dean raised in the fall. At this pace there will be no $200 million in the Dean arsenal--or even half that much. Most ominously, the number of Dean contributors actually fell, from 168,533 to 146,697. Might the grassroots' fervor be slipping? Could the Dean campaign be reaching its upper limit of support? Are the number of anti-Bush anti-warriors simply too few?
Last summer the pundits proposed that the Dean campaign was peaking too early. As usual, they were wrong. In fact, it may be that Dean is peaking too late--too late, that is, for Anybody But Bush Democrats to gauge accurately Dean's electability before he sews up the nomination.
Paradise Lost
Now I think any reasonable person's response would be: Well, Dean is still way ahead of his opponents in the categories the article discusses.
That is true to be sure, in categories favorable to the Dean camp. However, I have long held doubts regarding Dean's ability to deliver the revolution he is promising. If the innovations the Dean campaign has brought to this campaign are necessary to offset his deficiencies as a candidate then we must ask what the consequences are if those innovations aren't quite as valuable as some assert.