It appears this Primary is going to come down to a Dean vs. "Anti-Dean" Candidate. I would be very surprised if the DLC doesn't suddenly start throwing their endorsements and support behind one candidate in an attempt to make this a 2 person race. Most likely that Candidate would be Kerry or Clark. They have military credentials and thats what the DLC is looking for. Now it may turn out that the DLC is so unorganized that they cant coordinate that sort of a strategy, or so buerocratic that they cant decide on who to back. If thats the case and we hit the primary contests with 7 candidates or more than you're going to most likely see Dean sweep alot of southern states with the ANTI-Dean candidates splitting the Conservative vote.
For this Prediction we are going to pretend there are only two candidates. Howard Dean and "Anti-Dean" a super DLC candidate with the attributes support and appeal of Gephardt, Edwards, Kerry, Clark and Lieberman thus making him strong in every state Dean is not. Since in all likelyhood if they were to drop out they would each tell their supporters to unite and support the Anti-Dean candidate whoever it may be. The numbers below are the actual delegates each state elects
I've based my prediction on recent polls, common sense and gut feeling. Just remember its a guess, an "educated guess" but its still a guess none the less. Because of that this isn't very accurate. It assumes there are only two candidates and "spill over momentum" from victories in states like Iowa and New Hampshire is not taken into account. Most states that have 'conservative tendencies' have been added to the Anti-Dean column despite recent polls, and in some cases my gut feeling, simply because I am trying to be as realistic as possible. More Liberal states have been treated with the same precaution and added to the Dean column but that generally coincides with the polls.
Lastly I dont expect any HUGE shakeups like Dean winning Texas, Georgia, South Carolina or Tennesse but then again stranger things have happenend. The states are listed below the map. Each state has a number next to it which represents the number of delegates elected.
Dean:
Arizona 55
California 370
Connecticut 49
Florida 177
Hawaii 20
Illinois 156
Maine 24
Maryland 69
Massachusetts 93
Michigan 128
Minnesota 72
New Hampshire 22
New Jersey 107
New Mexico 26
New York 236
Pennsylvania 151
Rhode Island 21
Vermont 15
Washington 76
Washington D.C. 16
Wisconsin 72
Oregon 58[/color]
Anti-Dean:
Georgia 86
Idaho 18
Kansas 33
Louisiana 60
Mississippi 33
Missouri 74
North Carolina 90
Oklahoma 40
South Carolina 45
Tennessee 69
Texas 195
Utah 23
Alabama 62
Alaska 18
Arkansas 47
Colorado 64
Indiana 81
Kentucky 56
Montana 21
Nebraska 31
South Dakota 21
Wyoming 19
Undecided:
Virginia 82
Clark, Dean and Edwards are all possible wins in Virgina. They say this state
represents the "new south" and has become heavily Democratic.
Nevada 24
All the polls show Dean, Clark, Kerry, Gephardt and Edwards within 5 points of each
other. This state could go to anyone!
Ohio 140
Probably will go to Kucinich. But since I do not consider him an ANTI-Dean
(as in DLC "Stop Dean" candidate) I wont count this state for anyone.
North Dakota 14
Word is whoever turns out the most grassroots supporters is going to win this one.
Gephardt and Dean are the only two with staff on the ground.
Delaware 15
This state is the only one that Leans Lieberman, Dean is in a close second in the
last poll taken I would imagine Dean will win this if Lieberman has a poor showing
in earlier contests and Dean is doing well.
[B]Anomolies:[/B]
Iowas 45 Delegates are devided up proportionately. Since it looks like a two person
race between Gephardt and Dean I have devided the state in half giving each candidate
22.5 delegates and rounding it off to 22. We'll pretend the extra delegate is voting
for a third candidate.
Dems Abroad: 7
This is basically absentee Dems who are overseas. Mostly in Europe, expected to be very anti-war, pro-france. They will probably vote for Dean.
American Samoa 3
I have no clue about this one but I will give it to the Anti-Dean out of generousity.
Delegates Needed: 2,159
Dean Totals:
Dean: 2,013 (146 short)
-----------------------
Anti-Dean Totals:
Anti-Dean: 1,186 (973 short)
-----------------------
Undecided Delegates 275
Dean Total: 2,288 (With Undecides
Anti-Dean Total: 1,461 (With Undecides)
Conclusion:
As you can see we aren't talking about a very close race. Dean will have a 552 vote lead even if every single undecided state goes to the Anti-Dean candidate. If Dean wins those states (very possible) he'll have a lead of 1,102 votes more than even the Super Delegates could take away! There are 715 "UnElected" Superdelegates who cast their votes for whoever they like at the Convention. If they really want to derail Dean they could do so. Deans candidacy may depend on his ability to bring in enough Washington Democrats to calm the nerves of the DLC and avert a potential campaign ending movement. Dean can also avoid this bitter end if he is able to generate a strong lead. With 7 or more candidates in the race its very possible he could generate a lead of more than 715 votes making the SuperDelegates powerless. If Dean wins the undecides states the Super Delegates are powerless even if all 715 voted for the anti-dean (very unlikely) Dean would lead by 385 votes.
But if Dean loses the undecides and the Super Delegates vote against him Dean would lose by about 163 votes. The problem with this is they would erasing a lead of 552 votes which would not go over well with voters. If its a 2 man race Dean needs to kick some major ass, win the undecides and create a clear lead that the DLC wont touch out of fear of a inner-party backlash.