So a day ago it was suggested we hold a prediction contest for the upcoming caucuses/primaries. I offered to donate prizes from www.popartpolitics.com and Kos endorsed the idea of the contest but asked that we come up with the ground rules.
Samiam suggested:
Make a list of candidates everyone has to choose from (filter out the fringers). Make people predict the percentage score for every candidate. Then take the absolute value of the actual result minus the prediction (the difference) and add all of the differences together. Then the winner is the person witht the smallest number. You could also continue this over several primaries or offer small prizes for each state and a big prize for the overall winner.
What do you all think of this proposal? What other ground rules do we need? Can we agree to decide all the rules by Thur night?
-noah