So here I am, expounding on a bunch of my favorite, "use Iowa to springboard into New Hampshire, and then here and there and before you know it you're President" theories, and a very smart friend who is not political asked me a question: Has this sort of thing ever actually happened? Has someone ever really surprised everyone in Iowa (i.e exceeded expectations), developed momentum and then used it for positive results elsewhere, including New Hampshire? Her point was, everyone seems to be assuming this effect to actually exist, but why should voters in New Hampshire, SC or elsewhere care what 65,000 hardy Iowans say?
Well, I started preparing my lecture, when, to my surprise, I actually had to admit that I couldn't come up with one. Does anyone have an example? Maybe McCarthy in '68? I guess Carter in '76 is the best example. Any others? How about someone who did "better than expected" but didn't actually win Iowa?
Are we just pissing in the wind here?