(I posted this as a comment on the main page)
Iowa matters because Dean said it did. Then he committed the resources and the energy to making it matter. He has committed all of the volunteers, ads, mailings, and all the rest of that in a full court press to make it matter. The endorsements help everything out.
But even if he finishes a close fourth, which he won't, he still wins.
Gephardt was under the impression that Iowa was a "killing ground", as it is put in the Art of War. But he was wrong and his war vote showed the Deanies that it was, at best, uphill. If the news broke right, it could even be neutral and even positive. So, months ago, Iowa became job one.
As a result, Dick Gephardt is done. He has burnt so much money and energy winning in his backyard, that he doesn't have anything left for February 3. He is hoping to fundraise and get the money after a close win in Iowa? That strategy has never worked. It really won't work in an accelerated primary fight as they have this year.
Kerry is done in New Hampshire, unless he gets some more credit cards. The primaries move so fast after that, and are so national, that he doesn't have the money for organization. TV ads lose to handshakes.
Edwards is not done, but he will need a cash infusion somewhere along the line. Dean still leads in SC. Not by much and noone is paying attention, but he leads. Edwards is going to have to make his case there, as he has in Iowa. I don't know. But I don't think he can do much in Arisona or Oklahoma.
Lieberman is just done, unless Saddam Hussein points out his nuclear missile submarines that Dean let stay in Lake Champlain. The submarines will have be staffed by Serbians with NATO missiles stolen during the Clark years. Maybe then. If it isn't on a Saturday.
Dean has pulled a marathoners (and a wrestler's) trick of getting his opponents to blow through all of their energy in the first thirty seconds of the match. Dean has more money and more energy. He can wait it out until they all get the message from the money men. No cash. Sorry.
I often use a sailing metaphor here. Dean is in a different boat, with a different design. All of the Iowa Dem's are hoping for a big gust of media wind after Iowa. But the media and the voters don't work that way. Fewer people watch the news, fewer read the mags, fewer Kerry isn't going to be the Fox news/CNN darling after Iowa. The press bump will not be enough to get a lot of people off of the $2000 checks. Meanwhile, Dean will put up another sail (with a bat on it) and will sail on.
Further, Iowa is "Grassroots College" for the Deanies. Many of those volunteers and staffers who have drunk the Kool-Aid have never been in a full fledged campaign. In Iowa, they are all getting training and experience. They are going to go home to their meet-ups and tell positive, happy stories of volunteering for Dean. Many of them will go back to their campuses with bright orange hats. And they will be available after the spring term ends, but not with experience and all of their friends looking for "Spring Break with Dean."
I don't know why all lot of rivals think the Dean volunteers are going to lose faith after a bad showing in Iowa. These people have bet money on the game. They want their money to pay off and they believe Dean can get it to happen. They have thrown tens and twenties at him for months. They aren't going to stop because of the Troopers or the files in Burlington. They only stop when the money runs out or Dean quits. If they put a bat for NH up on Tuesday, watch what happens.
(Aside: Dean's campaign really has bypassed the media in a spectacular way. Everything is personal and word of mouth. Handwritten letters. Phone calls from the letter writers. Meet-ups. Even canvassing. It is radically different from Clinton and the rest. Yes, the ads and the direct mail are used vigorously, but the personal has the most effect. I just called 10 of my letter targets. All of them knew me. All of them took the call. TOOK THE CALL. This means jerks like me will keep writing drunken letters because we are getting penpals. Do you think we would call all of our pen pals in the general election? Fuckin A.)
Last, a second place or lower finish will get blamed on the smearing from the media. Call for more volunteers and more money. "Let's not let it happen again." A narrow loss in Iowa may bring even more volunteers to NH. If he loses NH, then the game changes drastically.
But, even then, he has the advantages of money, an experienced crew, and the blood from the press mauling. (They can't come after him again on the Vermont files. Everyone who cares, gets it. Gennifer Flowers stopped being a factor after a while) Clark will not have those advantages. Currently, he is using what nice winds the media blow him in clear water. That New Yorker smear job hasn't re-appeared, nor any other dirt. Not many have asked "Why did Clinton fire you?" His inner circle is experienced, but the crew on the streets won't have Iowa experience. Although doing well in money, he still trails Dean and the calendar works against him.
I like Clark. He is my second choice. In the words of Krugman, "He gets it." But he still needs to compete on Super Tuesday. I think avoiding Iowa was a smart maneuver. But he is still betting on a lot of money coming in after NH. Can it? (Why haven't the insiders lined up to endorse Clark? Besides Michael Moore and Madonna, who else can he bring on the stump?) (Another aside: Clark has the best TV ads. Hands down.)
I think Dean thinks like a wrestler. I think he is looking to win on points in the third period. Then, take on Bush in the next match. I think Clark understands that strategy, but may not be able to fight it. If he lets Dean get into the control position in NH (and Iowa), he doesn't get out from under it until March.
(Prediction: Dean wins Iowa by 2-3 points on Caucus night with 150,000+ attending. He beats Clark by 10 in NH. Then the second period begins.)