When you take a look at what's required of the voters in the caucus process, it seems rather daunting, especially when you take into consideration how detached people are from their communities. Voting in a booth sort of fits that sort of detachment. Walking into a caucus and participating in democracy is strange stuff.
Voters will first have to parade through the media and entrance pollsters (which is the first result that you will hear); then herd themselves into a corner of group of likeminded people, and join the cause (this is the second tally number that you will hear); and then begins the process of debate, with each candidates precinct captains delivering speeches (for as long as they want) to convert others, and debate, bargaining, offerings to mow lawns -who knows- all happening. And then, after a couple of hours, the final groups are formed and their percentages are determined (this is the third tally you will hear); finally, the percentages will translated into delegates (this is the final result you will hear-- and the only one that matters).
It wouldn't be a stretch, if the polls are correct, to imagine multiple winners tonight. Like a Harris Senate announcement, yes, no, maybe... or a BCS result, with one candidate claiming victory in the first tally, a second candidate claiming victory in the final percentage tally, and a third candidate, with the same number of final delegates, claiming a tie with the other guy.
Of the polls, all three that I've looked at show a strong surge by Kerry in the final week, as mostly undecided voters move into his column; that Edwards also is rising amongst less likely voters; that Dean is steady with a strong organization; and that Gephardt is dropping slightly but still close.
The 'juice' that the polls have going is the only real deal to look at here. What kind of "slight weights" is Zogby adding? The polling done shows different leaders depending upon different turnouts. I hope for a large turnout, but it's probably going to be smaller than expected, because this is about spontaneous community. You have to form bonds and reveal yourself with people you didn't even know beforehand, and that's even before you confront your neighbor-- the one you have no idea of where his politics stand. It takes a commitment that's not common nowadays. It's a good thing that the polls are tight, hopefully more people will show up and vote, get to know their democratic neighbors.
I'm hanging out in Iowa City after the wild and crazy events of last night. Joan Jett was there, High School idol time, 2000 people packed in, Harkin on fire, Dean losing his voice. I'll post one more here before I get over to Des Moines for the lowdown on the showdown.
