Maybe i've given up Kool-Aid for minty fresh crack, but i'm starting to think Dean is having his best week since November, if not ever...
I remember a few really GREAT weeks in the Dean campaign. The first was the Dick Cheney Bat, back in June, when many of us really saw his fundraising power and competitiveness. Then there was the last week of September to Remember, when he became the frontrunner. Then there was the week of the SEIU/AFSCME/IUPAT endorsement in November, when the SCLM and the other candidates finally admitted he was the frontrunner.
I've mentioned that in the week before Iowa, i had a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. What do i feel now? The same buzz as the GREAT weeks!
Now, here are some arguments in favor of this idea...
- From the Gore endorsement to Iowa, Dean was suffering the death of a thousand cuts from the media and other candidates. Everything from Al Sharpton's race-baiting to accusations of dirty tricks were flying around. Every day was a new piece of anti-Dean dirt - the Canada tapes, Troopergate, just incredible amounts of mostly irrelevant shit. Then came YEEAARGH, and it eclipsed everything - even the poor Iowa finish. Every doubt the SCLM and non-Deaniacs had was summed up in that single moment. It's all about the YEEARGH, baybee! The other stuff is just too small to matter now.
- It was a major wake-up call for Dean AND the Deaniacs AND the campaign staff. We had all gotten so carried away we started believing the hype really was the campaign. Dean is off the rock star/endorsement binge and back to campaigning on the issues, holding other candidates responsible for their record, drawing a bright line between the Bush League and ordinary Americans.
- It separated the wheat from the chaff. We found out how much of the support was soft - and also how much is hard. The money is still pouring in, and NH, while not a lead, is still second place on pure bedrock support. We learned the difference between Deaniacs and regular voters, and we learned how we can lose them - and hopefully, how to bring them back.
- It forced him to bring out Judy - who turned out to be a better endorsement than Gore. When you see Kossacks and Freepers in glowing mutual adoration of Judy Dean, you KNOW she's gold!
- It lowered expectations. Dean is no longer in the awkward position of both outsider and frontrunner. There will be no more big-name endorsements distracting from the message of change. We can afford to lose a bit without being written off for dead (again).
Now, here's the coolest part... i think the AngryDean meme has been damaged beyond repair. YEEARGH has moved from politics to pop culture. Every time it gets played, it's less effective. People stop seeing anger and start seeing a smiling, laughing Dean screaming with hope and enthusiasm - which is the real truth. And the SCLM will NEVER see Dean that far over the top again. If Dean can successfully turn YEEARGH from an image of anger to an image of enthusiasm (and so far it looks likely), it will be hard for the SCLM and other opponents to ever convince voters he's angry again! If Dean destroys the AngryDean, he'll be able to get away with murder in his public image. Any attempt to label enthusiasm as anger or other unseemly behavior will be looked at with suspicion, derision, and scorn by most people.
And this has a domino effect. For opponents, the value of the AngryDean is to support the UnelectableDean. See, "Dean is unelectable" started back when the SCLM and punditocracy couldn't imagine how a candidate who opposed the incredibly popular Iraq war could get elected. A year later, there's no question that opposing the Iraq war is more positive than negative. Rather than give up the electability argument, they invented AngryDean. Rather than being unelectable because he opposed the war, he's unelectable because he's too angry. If AngryDean goes away, then the best case for UnelectableDean goes away. I suppose they can lean on TooLiberalDean, but that's just silly.
And of course, this is the week that humanized him. He was humbled, and then made a GREAT appearance as a family man with the incredible Judy, without breaking his basic stride. In less than a week, he's going from a bizarre, angry cult phenomenon to a warm, enthusiastic and remarkably ordinary person.
Damn, but i feel good this week!