It's WMD's not being found as per David Kay (links everywhere). It's the release of the Hutton report this coming Wednesday, expected to be at least embarrassing and likely to lead to Geoffrey Hoon's resignation (Defense Minister).
But the trouble will take the form of an obscure (to Americans) vote over graduate school fees on Tuesday, which may turn out to be the beginning of an MP revolt. Brits, feel free to explain and correct. Remember this is a Blair-friendly publication.
From the Times (UK):
Britain
January 24, 2004
Ministers plot fees vote tactics
By Philip Webster and Lewis Smith
MINISTERS were discussing last night the details of a confidence motion in Tony Blair's leadership amid growing signs that rebel MPs are set to inflict a devastating defeat over university tuition fees.
Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Charles Clarke will head a desperate Cabinet offensive over the next three days to try to sway opinion, hoping that fears of doing potentially fatal damage to Mr Blair and the Government will bring MPs back from the brink.
So serious is the threat of a defeat on the eve of publication of the Hutton report that ministers and whips were privately discussing tactics for the tabling of a confidence motion. With the education vote on Tuesday and Hutton on Wednesday, Mr Blair would almost certainly table the motion for debate on Thursday in an urgent attempt to restore authority to his leadership.
However, the mood at the top of the Government is so sombre and angry that some are even saying that Mr Blair should not table a confidence motion, in order to deny the rebels the satisfaction of coming back into the fold. An informed source said: "Of course we would probably have to table a motion, but those sentiments show just how upset people are at people for the damage they intend to inflict."
(...)
I was shocked to see ABC's World News lead with the Kay admission of no WMD, followed by Halliburton rip-off stories, followed by the rise of John Kerry... all without the usual deference to the boy king. However, the fall of Blair (a very real possibility now) has major implications for the 2004 election, especially on the heels of an admission about the falsity of the central claim of last year's SOTU, and a rather flat reception of this year's version.(More)
Imagine the coverage in the US regarding Blair's fall from grace, increased coverage of the Plame affair, and the possibility of an out-and-out civil war in Iraq by June. Add a real Democratic primary fight to focus the media, and throw in a few million jobs missing.
It may not brew into the perfect storm, but all of a sudden, Rove can't be as cocky as usual over the control of the media's agenda.
Hope that picture standing next to disgraced (and soon to be impeached) CT Gov. John Rowland looks good on Bush's mantle.
We'd better catch Osama, because a trip to the moon isn't going to save Junior from events on the ground.