In 1992, I worked for Bob Kerrey in New Hampshire. I remember the last week like it was yesterday. The main dynamic in the last 7 days was all about Clinton. Tsongas had opened a lead in the mid 30's. After him was a wounded Clinton, around 20, followed by 3 around 10: Kerrey, Harkin and Brown.
The problem for Kerrey, Harkin and Brown was we could not get heard. Essentially, each of us was condemmed to hoping we would get some boost from a total Clinton collapse.
What I learned that week is operative today: the Media seldom is able to tell more than two stories at once. In Iowa, the stories were the surge guys: Kerry and Edwards and the fall of Dean.
In NH, there are only two stories: Kerry opens lead, and how far does Dean collapse. This has effectively crowded out Edward's and Clark's message.
I was tempted to call this post the Pollster Death Match, because depending on who read, the race is either a three or four war race for second, or a three way race for third.
You can group the pollsters into 2 groups (I include here only polls with numbers from the 24th)
ARG and the Globe:
ARG, 22-24: Kerry 38, Clark 18, Edwards 15, Dean 14, Holy Joe 5
Globe, 23-24: Kerry 38, Dean 15, Clark 14, Edwards 12, Holy Joe 7
Gallup and Zogby
Gallup, 23-24: Kerry 38, Dean 25, Clark 10, Edwards 9, Holy Joe 12
Zogby, 22-24: Kerry 30, Dean 23, Clark 13, Edwards 9, Holy Joe 9
There is no way to square these groups of polls, though ARG does say Dean is 10 points above his lowest night. Here is my estimate of just Saturday:
Boston Globe: Kerry 40, Dean 16, Edwards 13, Clark 12, Holy Joe 9
ARG: Kerry 39, Dean 17, Edwards 17, Clark 16, Holy Joe 6
Zogby: Kerry 28, Dean 25, Clark 12, Edwards 10, Holy Joe 11
Gallup: Kerry 39, Dean 26, Clark 9, Edwards 10, Holy Joe 14
Two other polls, UNH and Suffolk have not released their numbers, though Suffolk has tended to find results closer to Zogby than anything else.
What does this mean:
- The Dean surge is beginning to drive coverage. If it does, there will be little chance for Edwards or Clark to make a run at second.
- In general, beyond Zogby I don't see any evidence that Kerry is declining. He looks to have first, though Zogby (and Suffolk) suggest Kerry's margin is not overwhelming.
- The biggest surprise has been the rise of Holy Joe and the collapse of Clark. If I had to guess, here will be the story lines:
Kerry wins big, takes momentum into the 3rd
Dean recovers enough to stay viable, but is now behind in many of the states on the third
Edwards does OK, but does not appear to capitalize on Iowa. He must win SC.
Clark is badly hurt - this will be a major story line if he is unable to hold onto third, or alternatively finishes a poor third to Dean.
As I think about the likely outcome Tuesday, I can't help fight the feeling that the chances of a brokered convention are rising. The 3rd is going to be about one thing: can Kerry deliver the knockout blow. If he can't it is likely that there will be at least 3, and possibly 4 viable candidates in the first week in March. If this happens, it will be difficult for one candidate to wrap it up.
