The implosion of Dean's numbers in upcoming states point to an interesting observation about the elusive phenomenon of buzz.
Emanuel Rosen's Anatomy of Buzz is a good accessible read on the phenomenon of social networks developing and advancing a product in ways that markets can only dream of - essentially, creating a exponentially growing virtuous cycle of support around a product that sustains and feeds itself with minimal central effort.
Dean's campaign didn't write the book but sure know its core principles and have put them into practice in the political arena better than anyone - with a tip of the hat to McCain, who did much the same.
But.
There's a difference between buzz - which engenders purchasing intent - and actual purchasing. This is still a very hazy area. Apple Computer, for example, is sustained by a rabidly loyal base that swears, arguably rightly, that the Macintosh is by far a superior product. Many PC users will ooh and aah at the industrial design of Apple products - it is so superior it almost sells itself. Almost. iPods do. That's it.
Another example noted by Rosen, the PalmPilot, certainly did sell initially by word of mouth spread by a rabidly loyal customer base. The hegemony enjoyed briefly by Palm quickly evaporated when Microsoft took a look at the market and after two or three half-assed attempts, seem to be pushing Palm aside in overall PDA share, despite Palm still arguably having the simplest and cleanest product functionally.
It all points to what Ev Rogers noted in The Diffusion of Innovations regarding how innovations are disseminated to the larger population. Rogers' studies involving innovators and early adopters are bang on - but I don't believe this necessarily extends linearly to the early and late middle adopters.
In other words, it could very well be that's what's hot with innovators and early adopters may be suspicious or even hostile to early and middle adopters, who are less risk averse and more willing to go with a lesser brand with perceived support, reliability, familiarity, inoffensiveness, regularity, etc. What receives buzz in the former demographic does not necessarily translate to the latter - indeed, the very existence of that buzz sometimes turns them off, since they're looking to keep up with the Joneses who (apart from me) are rather boring people. Mediocrity wins out in the end.
So, how does buzz win? It can by being very persistent and dedicated and taking a long term strategy (which is precisely how mediocrity wins, of course...) Take for example the automotive market. For years, the American car companies treated Japanese cars as a queer little niche and continued to produce absolute pablum offered to the market at a similar price. But - if you bought a 1990 Civic new, you'd probably still have it. A 1990 Cavalier didn't make it out of the Clinton administration, and likely died in his first term.
The tables have slowly turned. The main Japanese brands have, after years of outschooling American brands, taken over the top rung after many satisfied long-term customers in the former camp, very few in the latter camp. Japanese car owners are less muted in their enthusiasm and less distinct than they used to be - they're just making good, solid, conservative decisions that just happen to be the right ones. Even as American car companies have acknowledged this and largely fixed their quality issues, they all acknowledge a long term uphill battle to return to the days when American cars were the indestructible workhorses and Japanese cars were the clunkers on the side of the road. Regardless of fact, it's all perception.
This is of course long term, so it helps no one right now. Short-term, though, you do have the phenomenon that Kerry exploited brilliantly - Dated Dean, Married Kerry. But. Those who will marry Kerry are bound to feel a good deal of dissonance with their decision after it's made. Marital bliss is far from guaranteed. They may even be encouraged to stray, especially early in the courtship. Everyone roots for the chagrined romantic after all.
But the romantic has to turn a new leaf and offer at least similar promises of consistency, balance, familiarity, decency and plainness in some respect, and promise to work on that further. Otherwise, many people fear to be wrapped up in passion only to be disappointed again, and recommitting even harder to the staid but predictable, proper, and certainly OK alternative.
To make a long and convoluted analogy end, buzz by itself means nothing...Lust is good if you just want some, but it's ephermeral and easily trumped by love. Of course, love without a base of lust is fickle.
Dean's got the mojo working, but he has to build that into something else - a solid foundation that transcends yet contains this passion and builds something much more profound. Not only can he do this I think, it's perhaps the real takeaway from the Sawyer interview - he can and has in the one relationship that counts.
Now, it might be too late, and it might take a Graduate-like moment of interrupting the ceremony, but hell, it's worth a shot.
