Aside from
weather (which has been well discussed) and
polling, there seems to be a dearth of discussion right now on DailyKOS about other tenets of political folk-wisdom.
Disclaimer: I'm an out-of-stater, so perhaps my points can be critiqued or verified or refuted by other posters like bcarlson33 who are political veterans in the Granite State. I tried calling the NH secretary of state to validate some of this, but they had already closed (or stopped taking phone calls, which would be totally understandable!) by the time I called at 4 pm CST.
A brief run-down of things to talk about --
- Ballot Order: According to this article as well as the sample ballot printed on the New Hampshire secretary-of-state's Web site, the ballot order will be alphabetical this year (this is a change from previous years in which the ballot order was random). Accordingly, Clark and Dean will be higher up than Edwards, Kerry, and Sharpton. Folk wisdom dictates that this can have an impact of anywhere from a few-tenths of a percent to a few percent, particularly among the 20 to 30 percent of likely voters who are undecided or soft-leaners. If this is a very close race, ballot order might be decisive.
- No Late Drop Outs: According to the sample ballot, Carol Mosely Braun and "Dick" Gephardt are still listed on the ballots for tomorrow. While most of their supporters (perhaps ten percent of the Democratic electorate) have chosen new candidates, perhaps a handful of die-hards will cast votes for Carol or Gep. Perhaps a percentage point is at stake here.
- Other ballot effects: Two other ballot effects are worth mentioning. The first is that the ballots list the home town of each of the candidates. For example, under "Howard Dean" it says "Burlington, Vermont". It isn't known whether any sort of regional biases the New Hampshire voters will have tomorrow, but it is plausible that Dean, Kerry, and Lieberman may get a tiny boost from their fellow New Englanders.
The second ballot effect is that notable is specific to Kerry. He is listed on the ballot as "John F. Kerry". Usually, it's a good idea to be listed on the ballot under the exact same name that you are generally referred to in the media. That is why the ballot lists "Joe" Lieberman and "Dick" Gephardt. It seems to me that Kerry made a mistake by using his middle initial, because it might confuse a few people. Granted, I would be shocked if more than a half-dozen people statewide were actually confused by this (and indeed, probably many more will be confused by Carol Mosely Braun and Harry Braun both being on the ballot).
- The Absentee Vote: It's worth keeping in mind that between 5 and 10 percent of voters are going to vote absentee in this race -- scratch that, they already voted absentee, perhaps as much as four weeks ago! While there has been considerable discussion of which candidate is benefitting from late momentum, the vast majority of these absentee voters cast their votes at least five days ago (since they must be in the hands of local election officials by tomorrow afternoon at the latest under NH law), and probably a majority of them were cast before the Iowa caucuses and Dean's scream. Presumably, most of these ballots will break in favor of Dean, Clark, and Lieberman, since Dean was the front-runner when they voted; and because a lot of them are going to be military ballots (and forgive me if military voters tend to lean towards more hawkish candidates). This may make a one-or-two point difference in the final statewide tally, and even more for absentee-heavy Hillsborough and Rockingham districts.
- And one last thing... The New Hampshire Public Television Mock Election results are in. Among 20,000 students, Kerry won with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Dean with 23 percent and Clark with 19 percent. I seems to me that K-12 students tend to vote like their parents, and the 2002 mock election results tracked fairly well with the actual election results.