Dean's speech last night was simply magnificent. If he made that speech last week after Iowa, good chance he wins NH.
Unfortunately, he didn't. And now he goes into Red State America. Kerry's veteran status alone in these states gives him an edge over Dean, however he also carries many of the same "northeast liberal" issues into the South that threatened to hurt Dean.
Edwards and Clark are now on home turf. I expect one of them to break out, win some states, and keep the final outcome in doubt for the forseeable future.
Dean stays in and collects delegates -- perhaps even wins a few states, but its difficult to see how he wins the nomination.
You essentially have three to four viable candidates with different donor bases, and a new Internet paradigm that allows almost instant replenishing of campaign resources, which will allow campaigns with any level of viability to remain alive, fighting, and picking strategic battles.
Add the coming emergence of Sharpton to the race -- who will begin picking up steam in the delegate count as we go into states with condensed pockets of African American population. Although he's not a threat to win the nomination outright, he will be electing full delegate slates in the congressional districts gerrymandered for African American representation.
All have different strengths and weaknesses. None of them appear poised, in my opinion, to strike the fatal blow.
Given the proportional assignment of delegates, and the short window of the primary season -- hitting the number of delegates needed to win is hard. The longer we continue with three viable candidates, the more likely we see a brokered convention.
I think that's actually a good thing. The longer we dominate the political coverage, and the longer we go without providing a clear candidate for Bush & Co to shoot at, the better off we are.
