George W. Bush and the Republican Party.
I am calling it early based on what my perception of how the debate will evolve. Dean is currently the only reformer, "McCainesque" canidate in the race and his campaign has set the tone. I don't doubt Dean will come out swinging against the Senators but every possible option available to him, every pragamatic arguments can and will be blunted by the Establishment.
Iraq War vote? Kerry et all will claim they were misled by the Administration. In fact, if Kerry dares to say something along the lines of, "if you can't trust what the president says, what can ya trust?" I'd fall of my chair. This will resonate with the public and in this primary environment it boosts Kerry. This won't work as well in the GE because of the wealth of quotes from Kerry after Hussein's capture when he mistakenly thought Saddam's capture would boost support for the war and make the war a nonissue- big mistake. WMD in Iraq and the war vote is sure to be a central question tonight from the moderators.
With all the press on the lack of WMD currently, combined with the White Houses attempts to shorten the 9/11 investigation soundbites like this kill Bush.
NCLB? Same way with Dean's message about "unfunded mandates". The Establishment can lay the blame at the door of the Republican majorities and Bush. Will the moderators touch this? I doubt it but I believe one of the canidates will mention it.
Prescrpition drug benefit? The Establishment can claim they were shut out and once again blame the Republican majorities for this Trojan horse. I also doubt the moderators will bring this up but firmly believe it will be brought up by one of the canidates.
Anyway you cut it, the Establishment can pass the buck in a very practical way that's convincing and damning to the Republicans.
Perhaps the most damning thing that Democratic caidates can talk about tonight is the budget deficit. All of the canidates will attach this issue to the Bush tax cuts/rebates and Dean would do well to focus on this issue and pork spending by the Republicans.
The press coverage of the Democratic primaries has been relatively superficial over the past two weeks, focusing on who's attacking who, Dean's scream or other bullshit. The Democrats need to start talking policy, policy and more policy while passing the buck for their weak showing in standing up to the decidely NON-bipartisan Republican majorities and president.
Go Dems! And of course, GO DEAN!
