How I think each candidate can still win the nomination and the odds for each. This was posted originally in a comment thread, but has been slightly revised and submitted here for posterity (whoever that is).
Kerry - He's got the easiest shot with the compressed primaries, because he has buzz and momentum, and is unlikely to have enough negative press to bring him down before 3 Feb. To win, he just needs to stay above the fray, look presidential, and let Clark and Edwards fight each other to be the anti-Kerry (just as Dean and Gephardt fought each other out of contention in Iowa). If he wins most (5-6) or all of the states on 3 Feb., he can cruise to the nomination. Odds 1:2 <-- corrected by lefty skeptic
Edwards - He has to win at least 3 states: South Carolina, probably Oklahoma, and one more outside of the south if possible. Also, Kerry has to lose somewhere else to either Dean or Clark. If the Kerry train isn't derailed, it will be almost impossible to stop. If the states get split three ways, Edwards can then regroup and make his case as the anti-Kerry. He is really being hurt right now because he is splitting the southern vote with Clark. He needs strong wins over Clark in the south to become the single alternative to Kerry. Odds: 6:1.
Clark - He really was hurt by finishing "tied" with Edwards in NH. He needed to pull away to a clear third (or second). His path to winning is the same as Edwards', though: win in the south and in at least one state outside. Break up the Kerry "inevitability." It is really odd that Kerry has gotten to where he has at this point. If either Clark or Edwards were out of the race, there would be a clear "southern" candidate against the New Englander, and a real chance that Kerry would lose several 3 Feb. states. As it stands, if Clark cannot clearly pull ahead of Edwards (or vice-versa), Kerry will win. Odds 8:1.
Dean - Wow, what a difference 2 weeks makes! He's got a very, very hard path now. Ideally, he needs to win at least one state, maybe Arizona or New Mexico - but based on polls, that will be very hard. His only other alternative is to be a strong second everywhere on 3 Feb. and hope the winners are split between Clark, Edwards, and Kerry (or better yet, just Clark and Edwards). Then, he could actually come out of it with the most real delegates. The worst for him is if Kerry wins all or most (5-6) of the states. Then Dean will be shut out for 7 Feb. and 10 Feb. as the Kerry train leaves everyone in the dust. A 3-way split of states, even if he doesn't win any, would keep him alive, but just barely (America prefers a winner, not a strong finisher - just ask the Buffalo Bills). He is really suffering now, and even this unlikely and ambiguous scenario (strong second places with split firsts) is not looking very probable except in a couple of states - not enough to matter at this point. Odds 25:1.
Brokered convention - I really doubt it unless Dean invents a miracle on 3 Feb. and 7 Feb., coupled with strong southern finishes by both Edwards and Clark. Also, they have to somehow all four find the support and the cash to keep going through California and New York with 15% support each. I think it will be down to two (at most) by then, and after 2 Mar., the momentum will swing strongly one way or the other (if it doesn't happen in Feb., which is even more likely). Odds 600:1.
Lieberman - Kerry is found in bed with Ted Kennedy, Dean's head explodes while yelling at a campaign rally, Edwards reveals his fascination with satanism, Osama is discovered hiding in Clark's basement, and Gore and H. Clinton disappear into a strange multi-dimensional rift in the fabric of space-time. Even then, he falls behind Kucinich and Sharpton. Odds (Population of mainland China):1.
My worst nightmare now would be a Kerry/Lieberman ticket. Let's hope Kerry (if he wins) is smart enough to pick a charismatic southerner (or an "outsider") for the bottom half of the ticket - and if Dean doesn't pull out the miracle, I hope he still keeps taking it to Bush right up to the convention.
