Democracy Corps conducted a panel poll of 1318 voters overnight, that is they interviewed the same 1318 people before and after the debate.
He gained two points in the vote, to cut Bush's lead to 2 (and this sample skews Republican, too). However, more important are the huge gains Kerry made on personal characteristics like leadership and likability, and the similarly massive gains he made on comparisons with Bush about handling of the war on terror, Iraq and other issues. Those are the leading indicators and the kinds of things you see move right after a debate.
Very, very good news for Kerry.
Read their release below:
JOHN KERRY WINS DEBATE, MAKES SIGNIFICANT PERSONAL GAINS
Partisans Maintain Their Ground, but Clear Shifts Among Independents
Important Changes for Kerry in Leadership Attributes and on Security Issues
In an unprecedented national panelback survey of 1,318 likely voters who watched the debate conducted by Democracy Corps in coordination with Knowledge Networks, Democrat John Kerry decisively won tonight's presidential debate by a margin of 45 to 32 percent. Kerry gained a modest two points in the head-to-head race with Bush, cutting in half Bush's initial lead in the survey, but measures of Kerry's standing on key personal attributes and top issues suggest Kerry made much more significant gains among likely voters who watched the debate. The Democratic candidate achieved major gains across the board on personal favorability, the security issues that dominated the debate, and key leadership attributes.
Ø Kerry makes major gains on personal favorability. John Kerry's performance was very well received by tonight's debate watchers, who gave him a 7-point increase in his thermometer score (up 8 points in "warm" responses and down 5 points in "cool" responses). Kerry's increases were relatively consistent across the board, including an 8-point jump in his thermometer score with women and 6 points with men. By contrast, Bush's thermometer only increased only 2 points after the debate (up 1 point in "warm" and down 1 point in "cool" responses).
Ø Broad increases on the issues pertinent to the debate. In a debate that covered issues that were considered by many to be Bush's strongest points, John Kerry realized major gains. Kerry gained 9 points on who will do a better job on homeland security, 8 points on the war on terrorism, and 3 points on Iraq. Kerry also made important gains on having clear plans for what he wants to achieve (12-point net shift).
Ø With the opportunity to be heard unfiltered for the first time since his convention, Kerry broke through on leadership qualities. Polling by Democracy Corps and other outlets has clearly demonstrated that consistent attacks by Bush and his allies have led to significant losses for Kerry on key measures of personal strength and leadership over the last two months. But after seeing Kerry's performance in this debate, likely voters gave him increases of 11 points on having good plans for Iraq, 9 points on strong leader, and 9 points on having confidence in him.
Ø Large movement with key demographic groups. In this even race between John Kerry and George Bush, the critical bloc of Independent voters moved considerably toward John Kerry. Kerry's most notable achievement of the night was the vote shift among Independents where his vote increased 4 points from 50 to 54 percent while Bush's vote dropped 3 points from 45 to 42 percent. Kerry's favorability among independents jumped 12 points, and he addressed many of their concerns, both on security - up 10 points on making America safer and more secure, and 16 points on having good plans for Iraq - and leadership qualities - up 13 points on strong leader, up 10 points in having confidence in him, and a drop of 11 points on flip-flopping.
Ø No real gains for Bush. In contrast to Kerry's major gains on a wide range of measures, President Bush saw little movement in the post-debate survey. The good news for Bush is that he did not lose ground on his personal attributes, job approval, or overall vote. But neither did he succeed in addressing voters' doubts about his leadership on Iraq and other foreign policy fronts or enforcing the attacks his campaign has leveled against Kerry.
Past experience has taught us that changes registered by viewers on the night of the event are generally larger than those in the overall electorate in the days following. But the gains for Kerry in this survey are unmistakable. Based on prior surveys, there is great confidence that this will produce shifts in the overall political landscape.