It is obvious that Ohio and Florida are vital to the election and must be heavily emphasized. However, I believe it is also essential to have a strategy to win without those two states. The choice now seems to be holding onto all Gore states (which is becoming more and more likely) and adding New Hampshire (very likely), Nevada (very possible) and one additional state. Therefore, it is important that the campaign focuses its energy, money and personal visits upon Ohio, Florida, Nevada and one other state.
The choices for an additional state appear unclear and daunting, but still must be attempted. Based on the potential for problems in both Ohio and Florida, the Kerry campaign needs to select one additional state for an all out push of time and resources. Which state should it be?
A few thoughts on possible choices:
ARKANSAS: Some polls, such as Zogby show the state close, others show a clear Bush lead. Bill Clinton and Wes Clark might be able to provide important late impetus in an attempt to win Arkansas. The state was fairly close in 2000.
COLORADO: Most, though not all polls show the state close. However, because of the size of the Bush win in 2000 it was not initially seen as a battleground state and American Coming Together did not target it for intensive voter registration efforts. The Senate race should especially energize Hispanics and there are several contested House contests to boost turnout.
MISSOURI: Most polls show Bush with a reasonable lead. However, registration efforts in St. Louis and Kansas City areas have been quite effective. The contest was close in 2000, but the state may be trending Republican.
VIRGINIA: Polls show modest leads for Bush in Virginia, but it was closer than many expected in 2000 and the state may be slowing trending away from the Republicans.
WEST VIRGINIA: Most polls show a Bush lead. However, the state has a strong Democratic tradition and Democratic registration advantage. I believe ACT and others have put together a comprehensive GOTV organization.