The good news is that the spread has tightened to just 2 points.
The even better news, if you believe that an incumbent's poll numbers act as a ceiling for the actual results, is that Bush dropped 2 points.
That means the number of undecideds has increased. And we know who they tend to vote for.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6520756
Update [2004-10-17 8:16:20 by GT]:
If you think about it this is a great example of why the campaigns have different strategies.
The undecided have a very negative view of Bush. As the linked news article says:
Among the 7 percent of voters still undecided, Bush had a 34 percent positive job rating, versus a 66 percent negative rating. Only 18 percent of undecided respondents said the president deserved re-election, while 39 percent said it was time for someone new. In the latter group, 99 percent said they were likely to vote.
So Bush knows (well, Rove actually) that he can't get many of the undecided so his objective is to convince them not to vote for Kerry. Kerry's job is much easier. He is already halfway there with undecideds since they dislike Bush. All he needs to do (as he did in the debates) is present himself as presidential, as a reasonable alternative.
The comparison looks more and more like 1980.