I find Gery Daly's site to be quite good for those interested in the electoral college breakdown. He simply posts the most recent public polling and moves states between Bush and Kerry and Toss-up. Gery's a Republican but his site seems quite fair.
Twice, however, I've posted in the comments for Florida that this new insider advantage poll has Kerry up for 4 in Florida and that he should at least move Florida to "toss-up":
http://www.bocaratonnews.com/index.php?src=news&category=Local%20News&prid=9844
What gives? I'm wondering if Gery might be feeling the heat.