After much smashing of numbers together, I've worked out my guess for the NC election as of today, 10/22. The methodology is this:
1- new registrants will vote their party
2- old registrants will vote based in current poll data (Survey USA 10/15-17)
And 1/2 a dozen other excel formulas later, we get the following. I don't claim to be in any way, shape, or form a poll analyst, so take it as you will.
County |
10/16/2004 Dem |
10/16/2004 Rep |
10/16/2004 Una |
2000 Vote perc |
Kerry |
Bush |
Undecided |
Needed if all undecided go Kerry |
Needed Kerry voter % turnout |
ALAMANCE |
37217 |
28773 |
13902 |
60% |
18466 |
29396 |
1723 |
9208 |
20% |
ALEXANDER |
9389 |
11153 |
3966 |
59% |
4640 |
10012 |
492 |
4881 |
45% |
ALLEGHANY |
3596 |
2060 |
853 |
57% |
780 |
2437 |
147 |
1511 |
30% |
ANSON |
11599 |
2246 |
1516 |
55% |
5281 |
3338 |
285 |
0 |
0% |
ASHE |
7434 |
8292 |
2858 |
60% |
4357 |
6896 |
369 |
2171 |
26% |
AVERY |
1641 |
7805 |
2278 |
55% |
1803 |
4308 |
236 |
2270 |
81% |
BEAUFORT |
17076 |
9279 |
3995 |
65% |
7543 |
12698 |
625 |
4531 |
25% |
BERTIE |
12094 |
1408 |
993 |
51% |
4924 |
2453 |
248 |
0 |
0% |
BLADEN |
15081 |
2981 |
2661 |
62% |
8177 |
5365 |
417 |
0 |
0% |
BRUNSWICK |
25446 |
22390 |
11676 |
58% |
16010 |
20800 |
1206 |
3585 |
13% |
BUNCOMBE |
69962 |
49123 |
34640 |
61% |
43847 |
50850 |
3556 |
3448 |
4% |
BURKE |
22900 |
19969 |
10365 |
64% |
13924 |
21288 |
1167 |
6198 |
24% |
CABARRUS |
35109 |
41138 |
18854 |
59% |
19301 |
38927 |
1954 |
17673 |
42% |
CALDWELL |
17299 |
22402 |
8147 |
55% |
7693 |
18252 |
955 |
9605 |
43% |
CAMDEN |
3332 |
1491 |
1417 |
57% |
1461 |
2329 |
138 |
731 |
20% |
CARTERET |
16735 |
18474 |
9760 |
65% |
9357 |
20263 |
1036 |
9871 |
46% |
CASWELL |
9737 |
2874 |
2012 |
60% |
4132 |
4660 |
312 |
217 |
2% |
CATAWBA |
32881 |
47627 |
19520 |
56% |
18393 |
40083 |
2003 |
19688 |
49% |
CHATHAM |
19435 |
10500 |
7082 |
65% |
12410 |
12299 |
827 |
0 |
0% |
CHEROKEE |
8169 |
8384 |
3371 |
50% |
2962 |
6781 |
379 |
3441 |
34% |
CHOWAN |
5849 |
2224 |
1240 |
63% |
3118 |
3106 |
183 |
0 |
0% |
CLAY |
2900 |
3240 |
1564 |
55% |
1494 |
2877 |
158 |
1226 |
35% |
CLEVELAND |
30403 |
17922 |
8182 |
60% |
12992 |
20593 |
1169 |
6433 |
18% |
COLUMBUS |
26150 |
5842 |
5153 |
51% |
9980 |
8387 |
729 |
0 |
0% |
CRAVEN |
27195 |
21230 |
11436 |
60% |
14287 |
23100 |
1254 |
7560 |
24% |
CUMBERLAND |
91860 |
50669 |
37454 |
51% |
52770 |
49092 |
3539 |
0 |
0% |
CURRITUCK |
5928 |
4429 |
4230 |
60% |
3469 |
5865 |
350 |
2047 |
29% |
DARE |
10107 |
7562 |
6065 |
68% |
7394 |
9349 |
571 |
1385 |
12% |
DAVIDSON |
32486 |
44271 |
13808 |
58% |
14036 |
37099 |
1805 |
21259 |
51% |
DAVIE |
5962 |
13584 |
3759 |
70% |
4324 |
12472 |
471 |
7678 |
107% |
DUPLIN |
15345 |
6383 |
3828 |
58% |
6600 |
8019 |
533 |
887 |
5% |
DURHAM |
109397 |
36862 |
36509 |
55% |
75785 |
32080 |
3734 |
0 |
0% |
EDGECOMBE |
29421 |
6246 |
2640 |
48% |
11676 |
6888 |
617 |
0 |
0% |
FORSYTH |
92289 |
78061 |
34697 |
60% |
52885 |
70614 |
4352 |
13378 |
12% |
FRANKLIN |
16287 |
9486 |
4389 |
62% |
8830 |
10686 |
602 |
1255 |
7% |
GASTON |
45063 |
46047 |
20401 |
52% |
15685 |
40069 |
2273 |
22112 |
37% |
GATES |
4865 |
1198 |
1083 |
53% |
2086 |
1768 |
142 |
0 |
0% |
GRAHAM |
2654 |
2882 |
941 |
55% |
1164 |
2468 |
121 |
1184 |
40% |
GRANVILLE |
18040 |
6831 |
3823 |
62% |
9732 |
9278 |
566 |
0 |
0% |
GREENE |
7316 |
1716 |
971 |
60% |
2327 |
3626 |
203 |
1097 |
14% |
GUILFORD |
143669 |
98475 |
51620 |
61% |
92016 |
88961 |
6208 |
0 |
0% |
HALIFAX |
27134 |
5381 |
3834 |
50% |
11584 |
7290 |
636 |
0 |
0% |
HARNETT |
26868 |
18899 |
8394 |
52% |
11174 |
19435 |
974 |
7288 |
25% |
HAYWOOD |
22287 |
12397 |
7556 |
56% |
10335 |
13810 |
881 |
2595 |
10% |
HENDERSON |
19495 |
34019 |
18889 |
60% |
14561 |
29948 |
1666 |
13722 |
52% |
HERTFORD |
11650 |
1935 |
1055 |
55% |
5535 |
2350 |
269 |
0 |
0% |
HOKE |
12567 |
4033 |
3827 |
50% |
6456 |
4812 |
393 |
0 |
0% |
HYDE |
2748 |
442 |
375 |
62% |
948 |
1184 |
80 |
157 |
5% |
IREDELL |
32486 |
37606 |
16381 |
60% |
16935 |
36591 |
1778 |
17879 |
45% |
JACKSON |
11916 |
7314 |
5817 |
51% |
6234 |
6880 |
538 |
109 |
1% |
JOHNSTON |
36497 |
32997 |
14284 |
62% |
19154 |
36602 |
1627 |
15822 |
41% |
JONES |
4705 |
1236 |
853 |
59% |
1604 |
2355 |
146 |
606 |
11% |
LEE |
16184 |
8986 |
5291 |
63% |
9409 |
10858 |
630 |
820 |
5% |
LENOIR |
23291 |
8450 |
3724 |
64% |
10600 |
12312 |
720 |
993 |
4% |
LINCOLN |
17401 |
19006 |
8296 |
61% |
9290 |
18992 |
936 |
8767 |
42% |
MACON |
9130 |
9992 |
5196 |
58% |
4520 |
9497 |
534 |
4444 |
37% |
MADISON |
7509 |
4331 |
2588 |
57% |
3098 |
4867 |
318 |
1452 |
16% |
MARTIN |
12313 |
3194 |
1979 |
57% |
5441 |
4730 |
338 |
0 |
0% |
MCDOWELL |
11478 |
9821 |
4993 |
55% |
4303 |
10037 |
556 |
5179 |
36% |
MECKLENBURG |
214262 |
169607 |
106784 |
59% |
163969 |
136289 |
10701 |
0 |
0% |
MITCHELL |
1391 |
8456 |
2203 |
57% |
1894 |
5005 |
229 |
2883 |
130% |
MONTGOMERY |
8874 |
4763 |
2103 |
58% |
3825 |
5315 |
319 |
1172 |
11% |
MOORE |
17320 |
23963 |
10999 |
63% |
11353 |
21564 |
1184 |
9028 |
40% |
NASH |
32336 |
20568 |
6441 |
52% |
12027 |
18403 |
1049 |
5328 |
15% |
NEW HANOVER |
49459 |
48738 |
28143 |
58% |
33354 |
41394 |
2771 |
5270 |
9% |
NORTHAMPTON |
11772 |
1177 |
1280 |
58% |
5389 |
2766 |
290 |
0 |
0% |
ONSLOW |
28798 |
26236 |
15922 |
57% |
16756 |
28747 |
1428 |
10564 |
35% |
ORANGE |
50013 |
20896 |
22217 |
52% |
30811 |
15353 |
2162 |
0 |
0% |
PAMLICO |
5102 |
2516 |
1454 |
58% |
1819 |
3305 |
197 |
1290 |
21% |
PASQUOTANK |
13972 |
5269 |
5333 |
55% |
8276 |
6359 |
515 |
0 |
0% |
PENDER |
13506 |
9540 |
4805 |
59% |
7355 |
9871 |
564 |
1953 |
13% |
PERQUIMANS |
4580 |
1963 |
1600 |
54% |
1635 |
2673 |
182 |
857 |
15% |
PERSON |
12890 |
5491 |
3198 |
62% |
5932 |
7941 |
450 |
1560 |
11% |
PITT |
49842 |
27168 |
15185 |
57% |
28140 |
29797 |
1747 |
0 |
0% |
POLK |
5769 |
6269 |
3901 |
58% |
3554 |
5896 |
359 |
1984 |
28% |
RANDOLPH |
22621 |
42288 |
14060 |
61% |
13171 |
36942 |
1570 |
22202 |
80% |
RICHMOND |
21319 |
5511 |
3733 |
47% |
7399 |
6594 |
548 |
0 |
0% |
ROBESON |
58214 |
8012 |
6767 |
42% |
18847 |
12395 |
1139 |
0 |
0% |
ROCKINGHAM |
28205 |
17212 |
9447 |
58% |
10976 |
19725 |
1206 |
7544 |
21% |
ROWAN |
31798 |
35975 |
15145 |
54% |
14124 |
30301 |
1685 |
14493 |
36% |
RUTHERFORD |
19081 |
13227 |
7199 |
60% |
8221 |
15801 |
846 |
6735 |
30% |
SAMPSON |
18023 |
12928 |
3408 |
61% |
10032 |
11485 |
630 |
824 |
4% |
SCOTLAND |
13658 |
3724 |
3361 |
44% |
4967 |
3537 |
394 |
0 |
0% |
STANLY |
14133 |
15611 |
6278 |
69% |
7873 |
17531 |
789 |
8870 |
53% |
STOKES |
10757 |
14214 |
3931 |
61% |
4599 |
12945 |
574 |
7773 |
58% |
SURRY |
18831 |
17172 |
7147 |
56% |
7103 |
16879 |
876 |
8901 |
38% |
SWAIN |
5756 |
2995 |
2400 |
43% |
2425 |
2611 |
217 |
0 |
0% |
TRANSYLVANIA |
8785 |
9269 |
5483 |
62% |
4971 |
9306 |
557 |
3779 |
32% |
TYRRELL |
1900 |
231 |
321 |
65% |
869 |
697 |
58 |
0 |
0% |
UNION |
30808 |
42116 |
18273 |
62% |
17761 |
42754 |
1879 |
23115 |
62% |
VANCE |
19632 |
4201 |
2769 |
57% |
10124 |
6555 |
471 |
0 |
0% |
WAKE |
194251 |
164292 |
103310 |
68% |
156162 |
169920 |
10643 |
3116 |
1% |
WARREN |
11459 |
1690 |
1349 |
54% |
5705 |
2617 |
252 |
0 |
0% |
WASHINGTON |
6765 |
1211 |
763 |
55% |
2612 |
2130 |
167 |
0 |
0% |
WATAUGA |
14204 |
16265 |
11197 |
50% |
9635 |
11874 |
915 |
1325 |
7% |
WAYNE |
32668 |
20980 |
8828 |
60% |
14923 |
24144 |
1239 |
7983 |
22% |
WILKES |
12313 |
21942 |
5892 |
59% |
6648 |
16011 |
801 |
8563 |
54% |
WILSON |
28538 |
13514 |
5399 |
56% |
12723 |
14800 |
878 |
1200 |
4% |
YADKIN |
5276 |
13912 |
3747 |
67% |
3637 |
12153 |
463 |
8054 |
121% |
YANCEY |
6263 |
4984 |
1892 |
65% |
3498 |
4844 |
293 |
1054 |
14% |
TOTALS |
2560121 |
1889664 |
1010658 |
59% |
1454386 |
1837611 |
113912 |
443783 |
15% |